Need somewhere to think out loud,

As posted elsewhere, explaination of current theory, with charts, it's on ES which I don't trade, but never mind.

--------------------------------------------

Here is that 6sma Envelope 0.03% setup I was on about.

With the direction, look to get in towards the low of, it's the main basis for my trades, I've stripped out my other Direction Envelopes to make it easier to see.

Basically, with the direction, put a limit order towards the low of the Envelope range, personally don't run fixed 4 TP or trade ES, but it's got a chance, I'd go 6 to 8 I think if you really want to use fixed TP, looks like it has it in it easily most of the time, always kill it if it stalls before.

Flat market trade either side.

The spikes and reverses are too fast for manual market order, I've been trying.

The chart with more Lines, is my full method, same but expand to 11sma Envelope and then a 30ema envelope just for flat markets.
 

Attachments

  • My 6 Setup full.jpg
    My 6 Setup full.jpg
    241 KB · Views: 29
  • My 6 Setup.jpg
    My 6 Setup.jpg
    185.4 KB · Views: 28
Summary :-

Made very little, better than a loss.
I've practically removed any chance of huge blow outs which is my main issue :)
Method's been improved slightly.
Entry method via Limit's improved, better prices in general. ( theory )
Can place entries on more than 1 market if needs be, the others will just reject due to margin issue, so fine, monitor and maintain the Limit orders position accross 2 to 4 markets, what ever hits hits, strong trend hold longer, weaker the trend, less you hold.
Should be more Price Following, as I used to always miss the follow entries.

Money wasn't there, but got 10 weeks, so a week wasted value wise, isn't a big deal as learnt a few new tricks, even if I take another 4 weeks to get to 50% efficency then I'll still easily hit wage level, so all fine.

Weekend, role on Monday!!
 
Method test, brief on GA a range test....

9am start today, 6 range holding all the way down, loads of entries short.
9:35 6 range fails, move up ( long bottom to be fair ), stalls at 30, also top 11 range.
No entries on the down move, long bottom, low of 30 range, moves to top of 30 nicely.
Entries lower 6 on up move worth okay pips on the spikes.
6 range, no breaks of 11 or 30, nice.
FAST high volume down move, not to be reverses ( might of tried mind )
No good short entry till 11:27, worth 18.
Both sides of the 6 / 11 work, then uptrend slow

All looks valid so far, speeding it up


6 range is 80% efficent, so market stays within 80% of the time.
11 range 85% and 30, 90%, by staying more on the right side I avoid creeping moves.


Definately smarter way to play it :)

Going 10 on the SL, yes it's $100 -$130, within spec @2%, should boost profit % nicely.
 
Just to recap, Plan X ( running out of letters ) is I'm going to pre plan trade entries, Set auto SL to 10 area ( still considering, maybe 8 ), so set limits in areas where I would like to trade then see if there get taken.

Long and Short setup, same time and this across multiple pairs.

Trades will be based on, 11 or 30 range if flat, 6 range with trend if trend, micro trends within the range are allowed.

Actually, although may put Entry near the 11's or 30's there slow enough to manually market order, I think the limit trades are just for the 6 trend entries, SL of 5 for these should be fine, but 10 for the outter ranges.

Simple!!
 
F12, bar at a time test, it's not tick data, but what I want to do is call out Limit order then see if it fills then the out come.

Example 30( reason) L 48.4 SL 10, TP none, if I move it I'll update the number on the next line, if it hits i'll score it, and repeat.

6th feb, 9:00 start

30 S 52.0 Cancel next bar didn't fill me, damn.
30 L 36.0 I'd of had to have had that in already to catch on that spike

went range bound, looks like run limits either side of the 30, just inside to catch spikes, obviously risk is they keep going, 10SL looks safe so far.

Breakout up, 5 SL entries with the 6 would of worked great.


It's working, need more testing, but no point tired and ill again, more sleep!!
 
Reviewing charts, and the 11 Envelope isn't required I don't think, ahhh no what I don't need is the 30ema, I do need the 11 I really need the 11, just trying for less clutter.

There is a bit of a the moves over when the 6 is back inside the 11, then you can short the top of the 6.

Prefering a 22sma outter envelope, they work better together.

Back to TV give brain cell a rest!
 
Settings Tweaked :-

Envelope 6sma HL/2 0.03%
Envelope 12sma HL/2 0.05%
Envelope 24sma HL/2 0.07%
( these setting stay nicely lined up

Logic kept BASIC = Play the ranges, with trend when available, no trend play the chop.
Set Limits where I'd like to get in, to stop missing them, especially with 6 fast momo plays.
Stay with the flow, SL set to 10 but tighten as needed, but not as much as before.
( keep a limit near the direction, takes too long to setup, then slide it into play when required )


Vague testing time..........

EJ first 13th Feb, profitable no worries.
EJ 16th, weak for a while, but made up for it.
EJ 17th, take rest of the month off LOL

EU looks good.

These trends, hold long enough in general to pretty much always get you to a good profit level, if I take a short, then the trend turns exit ASAP, but the low ranges.

Role on Live tomorrow! :)
 
Nearly time to start kicking ass and taking names.....

Method is fairly simple, additional thoughts........

If price is in the 30 range then Chop is most likely, if it breaks out of, then trend is most likely.

If Chop is likely, then don't take a long towards the top of the 30, based on a 6 entry unless the 6 looks strong enough to take out the 30.

Also, if I'm long, then there is no point in being SL's, without the 30 range.

Obviously if the 6 is calling trend against me, then it's best to cut and run.

Drifters are my biggest fear, when the price goes to the top say of the 30, then tracks up with the 30.

Jumping on strong 6 breakout trends are my main interest, uptrending, set limit, get in on a down spike, exit 20 up say and repeat!
 
Trade 1, -$32 standard no.1 always loses.

Set a TP to get me out, regretting it, too late it hit and as I type this, up she goes LOL

Few days needed for live useage I suspect.

DAX short 11100 tight SL, it's stalled typically!!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top