Need somewhere to think out loud,

[Turveyd]

You seem to be tweaking these a lot. The reason you find yourself doing that is probably because the volatility and market conditions are changing, yes?

This is why I'm a bit skeptical towards MA systems. They are static while the market is dynamic.

Have you considered dealing with this by either using some kind of adaptive MA? Or for example have say 3 different settings you utilize?

a) Low volatility
b) Medium volatility
c) High volatility

Of course, the challenge then is to identify the correct condition (a, b or c), but maybe you could use the size of the opening range or something similar to gauge that.

Just an idea.

Part varying market conditions need something to work in all, part changing to more directional less chop.

Thats why 8sma, just short term direction joining, with a 24 for slower trend.

BB to auto tune expected range and show breakouts rather than constantly adjusting envelope width but always behind.

Its about finding good setups with good upside and keeping losses tight, issue is i get lazy or distracted and let market run against me go into doomed hope mode then I'm screwed.

Hopefully back full ish time Monday or Tuesday, see if i can trade like a pro or Muppet.

2 months cash left, need it cracked or better find work

 

[Turveyd]

Tuesday, bank holidays, nothing open tonight even, damn it

 

[kaizer]

'Part varying market conditions need something to work in all, part changing to more directional less chop.

Hopefully back full ish time Monday or Tuesday, see if i can trade like a pro or Muppet.

2 months cash left, need it cracked or better find work '

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Really most pros trade like muppets. Planning the trades and executing the plan without second guess. Planning can’t be done by muppet however.

You are struggling 5 years at least and the main reason is not MA/envelope settings and even not re-optimizing settings 2-3 times per week, but – your quote ‘need something to work in all’. Searching the universal context-less setup(s) is the endless loop, endless quest for holy grail. If you want to break the endless loop you need to contextualize price action.

You have several envelopes and BBs – it’s more than enough to build context. Define at least 3 conditions 1/ Strong trend 2/ Weak trend (or channel or diagonal range) 3/ Chop

Understand that you cannot be 100% correct and you will lag in context definition and it’s normal. Build trading rules for 1-2-3 conditions SEPARATELY. Stop looking for universal setup, instead use the common sense. When trend is strong, any countertrend activity is the opportunity to beat countertrend traders. When trend is weak/channeling you need additional confirmations to take the trade. Anyhow you need to see trapped countertrend traders and beat them. When price is in chop… I don’t know how to trade chop. But I know one trader who trades only chop. He trades ES premarket and US lunch time, avoiding active hours, he trades when sharks are sleeping or go for lunch. The point is: you need to trade in context and your envelopes allow to build it, you don’t need adaptive averages, neural networks, etc. Later you can optimize your trading setup and make it more dynamic but firstly you need your bread&butter, alternative is give up and find work.

Be objective and do the work off trading hours. Ditch the brokers snake oil about 10000 hours of screen time. You see only what you know. If you don’t know what to look even 100000 hours will be waste of time. Doing the work never forget about reality – operational risk. Risk of missing price because it’s moving too fast, risk to get 5 times of your SL, etc. The market you choose (DAX) is highest operational risk degree, don’t forget it if you want stay with DAX.

Do the work step-by-step. Do not try to profit from any market move. Instead, work on proper context building and selection of the best situations only. You can discover that may be better to add instruments (oil, gold, FTSE…) and trade only 1 type of context, strong trend for example. Or chop may be. You don’t need to get the maximum you need bread&butter firstly.

My post may be sound like mentor’s voice but it is not really. It is just friendly advice, so feel free to ignore. I’ve passed the quest for holy grail years ago, and broke my trading, and went for work, etc so I just place myself in your shoes and post what I would be happy to read and understand years ago.

 

[kaizer]

Have you considered dealing with this by either using some kind of adaptive MA? Or for example have say 3 different settings you utilize?

a) Low volatility
b) Medium volatility
c) High volatility

this is the other viewpoint but the core idea the same - build context and work in each state separately, don't mix.

 

[Turveyd]

'Part varying market conditions need something to work in all, part changing to more directional less chop.

Hopefully back full ish time Monday or Tuesday, see if i can trade like a pro or Muppet.

2 months cash left, need it cracked or better find work '

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Really most pros trade like muppets. Planning the trades and executing the plan without second guess. Planning can’t be done by muppet however.

You are struggling 5 years at least and the main reason is not MA/envelope settings and even not re-optimizing settings 2-3 times per week, but – your quote ‘need something to work in all’. Searching the universal context-less setup(s) is the endless loop, endless quest for holy grail. If you want to break the endless loop you need to contextualize price action.

You have several envelopes and BBs – it’s more than enough to build context. Define at least 3 conditions 1/ Strong trend 2/ Weak trend (or channel or diagonal range) 3/ Chop

Understand that you cannot be 100% correct and you will lag in context definition and it’s normal. Build trading rules for 1-2-3 conditions SEPARATELY. Stop looking for universal setup, instead use the common sense. When trend is strong, any countertrend activity is the opportunity to beat countertrend traders. When trend is weak/channeling you need additional confirmations to take the trade. Anyhow you need to see trapped countertrend traders and beat them. When price is in chop… I don’t know how to trade chop. But I know one trader who trades only chop. He trades ES premarket and US lunch time, avoiding active hours, he trades when sharks are sleeping or go for lunch. The point is: you need to trade in context and your envelopes allow to build it, you don’t need adaptive averages, neural networks, etc. Later you can optimize your trading setup and make it more dynamic but firstly you need your bread&butter, alternative is give up and find work.

Be objective and do the work off trading hours. Ditch the brokers snake oil about 10000 hours of screen time. You see only what you know. If you don’t know what to look even 100000 hours will be waste of time. Doing the work never forget about reality – operational risk. Risk of missing price because it’s moving too fast, risk to get 5 times of your SL, etc. The market you choose (DAX) is highest operational risk degree, don’t forget it if you want stay with DAX.

Do the work step-by-step. Do not try to profit from any market move. Instead, work on proper context building and selection of the best situations only. You can discover that may be better to add instruments (oil, gold, FTSE…) and trade only 1 type of context, strong trend for example. Or chop may be. You don’t need to get the maximum you need bread&butter firstly.

My post may be sound like mentor’s voice but it is not really. It is just friendly advice, so feel free to ignore. I’ve passed the quest for holy grail years ago, and broke my trading, and went for work, etc so I just place myself in your shoes and post what I would be happy to read and understand years ago.

You gave up on trading ??? Don't want that result, but nearing crunch time.

1 Envelope Trend entry.
1 BB Range Entry and avoid joining near.
1 EMA 30, slower trend conditions.

That's enough to see what's going on ( current market, tomorrow ??? )

DAX is nice, smoother than YM, YM I've had to stop, too easy to run 50pts against me in no time.

Broker Costs spread wise too high and all buy Dax and YM, tad high on NQ but I make do.

I either trade with no losers like 20 trades in a row, or no profits like 20losers in a row, odd, all mental issues that need to be worked through obviously.

This week, I'll focus on keeping my losers as small as possible, till that becomes automatic and not a struggle then lazy then I'll just hold and die!

 

[kaizer]

You gave up on trading ??? Don't want that result, but nearing crunch time.

my English is so bad?
nope, I did not gave up and now trading is my major source of income but I was close to give up in the past traveling the same way as you - looking for ever working setup. Different TA, different timeframes, but the same idea... as I said feel free to ignore my post and continue your way, period.

 

[Turveyd]

my English is so bad?
nope, I did not gave up and now trading is my major source of income but I was close to give up in the past traveling the same way as you - looking for ever working setup. Different TA, different timeframes, but the same idea... as I said feel free to ignore my post and continue your way, period.

Post all good, wasn't to sure where you said " Went for Work" confused my small brain cell.

Cool, your doing well finally, trading is a nightmare.

Changed tactics recently, more directional, kept buying a range but it was a downtrend and ignore the range, but no real live trades on it as yet, holidays and busy. More joiny, more go with the flow.

Watched for a bit, not feeling it so no trades ( no USA aswell today ), town and gym maybe back on tomorrow!!

I see another method, simpler that's working based purely around 30ema Env 0.02% maybe?

Basically go with 30ema's direction, average into the position and close all on 30ema 0.02% failing. I'll run this demo along side live trades for a while, much less decisions wise, which means harder to cock up

 

[Turveyd]

Liking the 30ema trend logic, putting range upto 0.02% has very little fake direction changes on the data I just scanned through.

Which means I need to restrict all trades to 30ema's directional bias.

Envelope 8sma 0.02 then becomes obselete.

BB 9 2.0 then ideal chop range to enter with 30ema's direction.

Just got to trade only suitable market conditions, which is 70% of the time and watch for BB Trend breaks that'll push on and break the 30ema rules.

Simpler, previous plan, creating worry = no trades.

Modify account size later for average in 2 positions + Float, set auto SL 30ema 0.03% sorted.

Millionaire in no time!!

 

[kaizer]

Post all good, wasn't to sure where you said " Went for Work" confused my small brain cell.

Cool, your doing well finally, trading is a nightmare.

Yes, there was the moment of extreme frustration for me when I had to go back to work to have income. I developed strategies for DAX, NQ, ES and CL futures which looking good on tests but produces net loss on real-time. And not because of discipline, but because of operational risk. For example – I have trading signal, but in real-time the setup is forming in 3 seconds (it is possible if one trades from volume based bar chart) and I fail to execute the trade at predetermined level. Failure to execute = failure to follow the plan = failure to replicate the testing results = failure to trade for living. Just as simple. Thanks to ET forum and Handle123 personally for hint to pay attention to the Bonds futures. When I changed market, the puzzle completed. The day job left. What puzzle, well…

You wrote ‘Just got to trade only suitable market conditions, which is 70% of the time and watch for BB Trend breaks that'll push on and break the 30ema rules.’

70% of time is suitable. Hmm… do the calculation. Imagine you are not small retail trader and do not trade CFD, but the real future big contract. Estimate the volume you can operate and calculate your potential result… and you will get abnormal income, close to ‘Millionaire in no time!!’

And the hell is right here – in 70% of favorable market condition (when I began I dreamed about 100%). This is not realistic expectation! At least this is overcomplicated task if you are manual directional trader (we do not discuss HFT robots here). Think -market is competitive place. When you made $ someone else lose $, right? Are you smart enough to be able to do it 70% of time? Really? IMO 5%-20% is realistic for retail daytrader.

So the 1st peace of puzzle is the working field. Beginner wants to trade all time because it is natural – the working time should be paid… but market has it’s own opinion.

The second peace is reasonable expectation of net ticks made per day. Bigger the average target, less realistic it is. In the past I’ve read pro traders who trade the ES future and always wonder about phrases such as: “my goal is make 4 points by 4 trades on average”. So it is 1 point average trade (do not confuse with average profit). What is magical about this 1 point? Why 1 and not 0.5 or 1.5 or 2.5? The logic is here: 1 point = 4 ticks. If your average trade is 4 ticks you cannot trade this strategy profitably with high volume. 1 tick of slippage on entry and exit will double your volume but decrease average trade 2 times. 2 ticks of slippage will kill the strategy. So – and this is VERY important - the key – if the average trade is 4 ticks you do not compete with big guys. You are in your small business niche.

All the above is not abstract theory. This is my bloody experience, paid by tens thousands of real euros (also endless hours, kicks by ex-wife) and millions of simulated - losses. To stay in this business you have to have reasonable expectations. If you want to make tens of ticks per trade and trade several times per day – think again, are you smarter than big guys? If you want to grab several ticks but tens times per day – are you smarter, faster than HFT robots? Or better to find the humble niche and keep in it?

Regarding all the envelopes, MAs, BBs and it’s parameters. All this is secondary. To summarize – if you are serious about trading 4 living let me know and I can PM you ideas how to use more adaptive tools and stop to worry about ideal MA period and concentrate on the real deal - market context, trade selection, setting and executing realistic goals instead of became millionaire in no time.

 

[Turveyd]

Yes, there was the moment of extreme frustration for me when I had to go back to work to have income. I developed strategies for DAX, NQ, ES and CL futures which looking good on tests but produces net loss on real-time. And not because of discipline, but because of operational risk. For example – I have trading signal, but in real-time the setup is forming in 3 seconds (it is possible if one trades from volume based bar chart) and I fail to execute the trade at predetermined level. Failure to execute = failure to follow the plan = failure to replicate the testing results = failure to trade for living. Just as simple. Thanks to ET forum and Handle123 personally for hint to pay attention to the Bonds futures. When I changed market, the puzzle completed. The day job left. What puzzle, well…

You wrote ‘Just got to trade only suitable market conditions, which is 70% of the time and watch for BB Trend breaks that'll push on and break the 30ema rules.’

70% of time is suitable. Hmm… do the calculation. Imagine you are not small retail trader and do not trade CFD, but the real future big contract. Estimate the volume you can operate and calculate your potential result… and you will get abnormal income, close to ‘Millionaire in no time!!’

And the hell is right here – in 70% of favorable market condition (when I began I dreamed about 100%). This is not realistic expectation! At least this is overcomplicated task if you are manual directional trader (we do not discuss HFT robots here). Think -market is competitive place. When you made $ someone else lose $, right? Are you smart enough to be able to do it 70% of time? Really? IMO 5%-20% is realistic for retail daytrader.

So the 1st peace of puzzle is the working field. Beginner wants to trade all time because it is natural – the working time should be paid… but market has it’s own opinion.

The second peace is reasonable expectation of net ticks made per day. Bigger the average target, less realistic it is. In the past I’ve read pro traders who trade the ES future and always wonder about phrases such as: “my goal is make 4 points by 4 trades on average”. So it is 1 point average trade (do not confuse with average profit). What is magical about this 1 point? Why 1 and not 0.5 or 1.5 or 2.5? The logic is here: 1 point = 4 ticks. If your average trade is 4 ticks you cannot trade this strategy profitably with high volume. 1 tick of slippage on entry and exit will double your volume but decrease average trade 2 times. 2 ticks of slippage will kill the strategy. So – and this is VERY important - the key – if the average trade is 4 ticks you do not compete with big guys. You are in your small business niche.

All the above is not abstract theory. This is my bloody experience, paid by tens thousands of real euros (also endless hours, kicks by ex-wife) and millions of simulated - losses. To stay in this business you have to have reasonable expectations. If you want to make tens of ticks per trade and trade several times per day – think again, are you smarter than big guys? If you want to grab several ticks but tens times per day – are you smarter, faster than HFT robots? Or better to find the humble niche and keep in it?

Regarding all the envelopes, MAs, BBs and it’s parameters. All this is secondary. To summarize – if you are serious about trading 4 living let me know and I can PM you ideas how to use more adaptive tools and stop to worry about ideal MA period and concentrate on the real deal - market context, trade selection, setting and executing realistic goals instead of became millionaire in no time.

Big post, taking kids out, I'll start and answer more later.

70% of the time estimated and only recent ( of the times I trade I'll add, while spread at the lowest ), no time to back test prior months yet, not saying there won't be losers in that 70%, could get an 80% win rate. ( used outside ideal times = pain and chopped to death ofcourse )

As you know, it's about needing perfect entrys and exits and SL's, which history M1 chart easy to pick and see, Live when it's all moving fast very easy to pick a bad entry or run the SL too tight and be kicked out for nothing.

Direction 30ema based with wibble room 0.02% either side and chop to enter that direction with, is always the plan, but tricky to merge, but the BB 9sma 2.0Dev seems to provide a pretty good never perfect stab at this entry timing wise.

I'm okay at profits, a while ago I went through never enough and holding to SL like all will break, but got over that, I exit near other BB unless it breaks out which I don't give it long to do.

I'm stuck with MT4/MT5 and also can't add indicators to Tablets which I mainly trade off, while away from the PC or in bed, so stuck with standard tools.

Never going to become a millionaire, or really want to involve saving which is pointless to me, $5000 per month is my goal, which is about $3000 per month of expendible money ie fun, mountain biking, hookers, holidays, chasing skirt without paying LOL

Give method a test over longer period later then try it live but 1/10th size tomorrow.