Need some advice

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YES, i bought a Columbia bank stock about $5,years ago i thought it strange, later Fidelity offered to sell it for zero comissions/LOL.
General Motors, Bear Stearns+ plenty of airlines..... have gone to\or near zero, but not on me/LOL:D:D.Make sure you have a figure or area planned for selling or 200day moving average sell , to easy to miss big if no plan is planned.
WHEN i traded/invested single stocks, i allowed for a 50% overnite gap against me; even though that did not happen. I knew it could, in USA.
Thank goodness there is no overnight trading here.
 
Thank goodness there is no overnight trading here.
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OK, Oadmani,;
actually i meant from yesterdays close to todays open price \allow for 50%loss in single stocks.
Even though most gaps will profit/ help happen in direction of main [200day] trend.
I seldom trade extended hours/mostly regular hours=8;30-3:00 central time in USA.:caution::caution:
 
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OK, Oadmani,;
actually i meant from yesterdays close to todays open price \allow for 50%loss in single stocks.
Even though most gaps will profit/ help happen in direction of main [200day] trend.
I seldom trade extended hours/mostly regular hours=8;30-3:00 central time in USA.:caution::caution:
7.5 percent rule applies here. There is a lock and a stock can move only 7.5 percent up or down in a day here.
 
Hello,

My trading universe has 77 stocks. I am trading a derivative of the turtle system. The issue is that, because my rules are the same for each stock, I get a lot of trades in periods and then no trades in periods. There is no shorting of stocks where I trade, so I am incurring drawdowns and drawdown durations that are very long. Is my approach fundamentally incorrect?

When I backtest the system over the last 10 years, it is giving me a drawdown of 39 percent and a return of 108 percent annually if I am able to take all the trades. But, the trades are coming in clusters or are not coming at all.

I have a win ratio of 49 percent with a reward to risk of 3:1. The numbers are pretty good but there are no trades half the time and then they come in clusters, like 30 40 trades together.

Any advice would be appreciated.

For one thing, chances are good, you are risking every penny you have which is dumb on all counts. You should risk no more than 2% on any given trade yet, you have 77 stocks? You are probably, risking every cent on all your positions. Also, the Turtle Trading system is a trend following system. Hard to believe you have not been stopped out at all? Chances are good, you are doing a buy and hold on top of the Turtle Trading System. Any profitable trading system should take small losses most times and huge gains, several multiples of your losses. That is the only way, you will come out ahead. Your drawdowns looks abnormally high too. And trading using a simulator is not the same as actually, trading the stockmarket with monies on the line. You should be placing real trades using small amounts say $100 each trade. If you can show a profit after say 300-500 trades, you might have something. If not, you can see first hand, how flawed your trading system is. A trading journal of all your trades is a must too. Otherwise, you will never see all your trading mistakes to avoid in the future.
 
With stocks, however, the maximum leverage is 3:1, so I cannot take all the trades when they occur together.
You mentioned that you ran a backtest over the last 10 years. Did you use the same limitation (leverage limitation max 3:1, thus limited in number of open positions) also in this backtest?
 
The basis of the turtle system was to catch a trend across different commodity. I think with 77 stocks, you have a very high correlation. They are all stocks.

Also, you are leaving a very big part out of the turtle system and that is that if you have a winner you ad quickly more position. To make it worthwhile you should have access to an underlying with leverage, such as the future market is designed.
 
You mentioned that you ran a backtest over the last 10 years. Did you use the same limitation (leverage limitation max 3:1, thus limited in number of open positions) also in this backtest?
No, I didn't. The system took all the signals.
 
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