Need pointers for time only based systems

[murray t turtle]

I recommend you stop reading that blog asap... it will cost you a fortune....The dude is straight up rolling the dice, and after 10 rolls he just so happened to be positive.... Why would you ignore the price action data that is readily available to you? There are no shortcuts... you've got to do the work if you want to make the money.

There is seasonality to certain markets ... but blindly buying/selling based upon the time of day/season is gambling, at best. ..................................................

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Good points;
he may want to to factor in time, as a 2nd factor NEVER a first factor.

For example 2000, 2001, 2002 bear market was longer than average;
SPY. Amen; that website looks like a good one to avoid.LOL

 

[murray t turtle]

There's been a lot of research done on the subject and being non-conventional, there probably wont be a lot of information shared. Especially since there are very profitable strategies based on "cycles." Most traders would combine the approach with a signal. .......

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Partly true, i agree in part;
but in no way is op, wise in putting time as first factor, unless some one pay$ him by the hour to trade,LOL

 

[sealion33]

Actually, you can find cycles even on the intraday charts. They're particularly useful when coupled with measured moves.

Exactly. I noticed for example 15:30 move in ES happens quite often. So you just enter ahead of it and take small hit if it doesn't happen or 1% pump like today.

 

[IAS_LLC]

I'm not at all debating seasonal behavior is some contracts/securities... I'm just saying its silly to blindly purchase based purely on "time". Context is everything

 

[userque]

Compare machine learning algorithms on historical data using price, etc. as inputs vs. time, etc. as inputs. Does price, etc. outperform time, etc. on out of sample data?

This would be using the ML algorithm as a sort-of advanced 'correlation' comparison function.

 

[ETcallhome]

or simplay ask, is it better if I buy when it is down 1%, or if I only buy if it is 1% or more down at 15:59?

The best example of a time trader is the guy who rebalances his portfolio every year on his birthday. And then it just gets quicker from that.