Need help on 'earnings' trade

misterkel

misterkel

Trying to structure an earnings trade (options trader) and embarrassingly, I am a complete beginner at the news cycle (eyes glaze over).
I need a list of projected earnings dates - unconfirmed - and a list of earnings DATE announcements - not the actual date which earnings will be released, but the day the company will announce that date, i.e.
AMZN will announce their earnings date May 10th - expected date will be May 21st.

Here's the trade - 30 minutes before earnings date is announced, buy a calendar spread - short leg expiry just after expected earnings date, long leg expiry one (or 2) weeks later. After earnings date is announced, close trade - if the date is later than expected (I've seen this with GOOG), then option prices after expected date and before actual date collapse.

Trade could be naked, capital permitting, since it is very brief, but I need the long leg to cover.

Any thoughts? Especially where to find the best list of expected earnings dates.
 
Hmph. Interesting.
The only way I think you could do this is to hand-pick a basket-full of stocks, like say the top 30 of the S&P that have historic high IV going into earnings, and either sign up for email alerts on their investor relations link or set up a twitter feed for the companies. This would be a good one for text recognition software so as to screen out the daily BS. Other than that, its gotta be manual I would think . NASDAQ website will give you "expected" earnings dates for companies that have yet to announce. Zacks is good too.
I like the way you think. :D
 
I've been punished for being on the opposite side of this trade before. Well, almost that trade.

You could also use the strategy for earnings being brought forward too on the long butterfly or straddle, as was the winner on my losing trade. I kept it opened and recovered on decay, but it would definitely have been a solid winner for the other guy using your strategy (the most recent one as I recall was about 100% return).
 
beerntrading said:
I've been punished for being on the opposite side of this trade before. Well, almost that trade.

You could also use the strategy for earnings being brought forward too on the long butterfly or straddle, as was the winner on my losing trade. I kept it opened and recovered on decay, but it would definitely have been a solid winner for the other guy using your strategy (the most recent one as I recall was about 100% return).
More...
Yeah I thought about this.... would 30 minutes prior be any different than 3 days prior? Probably not. Albeit there's an open window for an exact date, that window is still relatively framed.
But its still creative outside the box thinking on the part of the OP... which is always good.
 
I have only seen this twice that I've noticed...well, only had two trades open on it twice. I'm sure I've missed some when I didn't have a position open. It should be a simple question of frequency and expected return. The logic is definitely sound--do the math and see if you can make a good strategy out of it. I think it may fall apart from a risk standpoint because of the exposure to price movement giving it the chance of a large down side and the relative low success rate.
 
Yeah - I don't see much risk at all. There is only 60 minutes of market exposure, and that's with a calendar strangle - a very resilient spread to price change. It would take a HUGE move, but the short exposure depends entirely on knowing the timing of the earnings date announcement. With that, it's golden, without, you'd have to hold it open for a week or so.

So that's my main question - is there a way to know in advance that a company is going to announce - 'earnings will be on such and such a date.' ?
 
misterkel said:
Trying to structure an earnings trade (options trader) and embarrassingly, I am a complete beginner at the news cycle (eyes glaze over).
I need a list of projected earnings dates - unconfirmed - and a list of earnings DATE announcements - not the actual date which earnings will be released, but the day the company will announce that date, i.e.
AMZN will announce their earnings date May 10th - expected date will be May 21st.

Here's the trade - 30 minutes before earnings date is announced, buy a calendar spread - short leg expiry just after expected earnings date, long leg expiry one (or 2) weeks later. After earnings date is announced, close trade - if the date is later than expected (I've seen this with GOOG), then option prices after expected date and before actual date collapse.

Trade could be naked, capital permitting, since it is very brief, but I need the long leg to cover.

Any thoughts? Especially where to find the best list of expected earnings dates.
More...
Anyone have a favorite options strategy trade through earnings?
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...tions-strategy-trade-through-earnings.304003/

Live Earnings Warnings for ETers, and How to Trade Them
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...nings-for-eters-and-how-to-trade-them.147186/

Earnings whispers
https://www.dogpile.com/serp?q=earning+whispers

How to trade earnings with options
https://www.dogpile.com/serp?qc=web&q=how+to+trade+earnings+with+options
 
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