Quote from jack hershey:
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Quote from easyrider:
I honestly dont know how you would backtest rockets.
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I tested "rockets" because specific criteria for them were posted and because the concept seems to make a lot of sense... trade stocks with good earnings (EPS) that are leading the pack (RS) and showing recent momentum (Stoch). But the results were unimpressive, perhaps because stocks meeting the criteria were also petering out.
the rocket is a quick trade. Slush money is what I use to trade rockets as quick trades. Slush money is odd money left over from streams of capital that is not being used.
This was my methodology. Choose up, down, and sideways market test periods. Rank stocks based on EPS and RS percentiles (80 & 90) just prior to the start of each test period, in other words use the EPS and RS rankings that were available at the time. For the stocks that meet the EPS and RS cut in each test period, look for stochastic crossings (above 80). When there is a stochastic crossing, record how the stock does 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 days afterwards. Then, for each test period, make "rocket" trade distributions and compare them to distributions of random entry trades of the same duration.
What I do to trade a rocket is use the fast stochastic fast line and the STOCH I use is (5, 2, 3). My signal is a long signal. A long signal is the fast STOCH fast line crossing 50% and going strongly (fast and slow lines diverging). up towards the 80% line which signifies "over something" to CW crowd.
I do this slection of stocks from the Universe using the unusual volume in the am and prior to that, the evening before using a STOCH (5, 2, 3) sort by looking at the way the fast and slow lines are coming up form below the 50% line. this "slush" list is put on "tabs" so I can pop up a 30 min chart to be on a fast fractal just before and at open.
The exit is when the entwined lines, above 80, are such that they separate and the fast line drops below the 80 (first on the 30 min and then on the EOD) and/or the unusual volume sort shows the "slush" list is no longer "rocketing" on the Universe unusual volume.
you see this somehow some where as you state as: "petering out". What you mention is the "fuel" supply of the rocket coming to an end. And it is a terrific description.
I also tested variations -- lots of variations -- on the EPS and RS percentiles (80 & 80, 90 & 90, 80 & 90, 90 & 80, etc.). And stocks whose EPS and RS percentiles met the criteria for the last quarter only, combinations of past quarters and for the whole year. I also added float, price and volume screens, and even tested > 25% inside ownership. Bottom line: no significant edge.
The word "quarterly" and "the whole year" may or may not imply the portfolio type backtesting was not being done but it was more to "catch any opportunity" that came alone. thats cool and a good way to test. Maybe that is why you said you didn't have "equitiy curves".
Obviously, I am the type that creates trading techniques and trading knowlege and trading skills. You are scouting the turf for things that may fit into what you do. You temper what you find to your likes. In doing this you easily translate whatever into your language and thought processes.
As you say, you are hoping for "edges to appear and have significance. I can now se fairly strongly why we will never have anything in common. I don't do CW and you do not do the pool extraction algorithm. I do not create "edges" and it certainly looks like a "rocket" is an edge to you. A rocket for me is a very high money velocity trade to kick off a cycle and I just use an regular exit to cross out of a rocket when the fuel is exhausted and cross into the best batter to replace the rocket then and there.
I understand time exits are not how one is supposed to exit a "rocket" but the way I look at it, if a "rocket" entry alone doesn't give more of an edge than a random entry, why not just throw darts? Had the entries by themselves shown a significant edge, I would have tested them with other exits.
This is a good comment on your personal proclivities. I am a very risk adverse trader who only trades at high money velocities using crossover trading among a very focussed batting group for each stream of capital I run.
My goal has always been to have this working like a huge machine with conveyor belts continually. Over the years I have worked to make this as cool as possible by taking advantage of electronic technologies. In 2008, that is possible even while I sleep so to speak.
For me, running 12 conveyor belts at 100,000 share widths and averaging 3% a day is what it looks like to me per person on a team. All belts are backed with stocks vieing for use of the belt (capital). At any time, a crossover is made with partial fills (20 in and 30 out on average).
Does this look familiar to you and is it like edge tading? No and no. I am glad you keep looking for this and that to complement your style and expectations. Looking into pool extraction isn't what will help you.
the straw that breaks the camel's back is timing and especially the timing associated with what you call "petering out". Obviously I trade in a portfolio manner. I have limited capital as does everyone. I have to deploy my capital every minute of the calendar. Most money is made when the market is closed.
I see the exponent of the compound interest formula as most important. i need to get my money to "work" in the shortest cycles. 2 1/2 days is a sweet period. It gives me an exponent of 100 annually. the "in" money velocity" is 3% or more. If it "peters out" below 3%, then I HAVE JUST GOTTEN THE EXIT SIGNAL THAT I AM SHOOTING FOR. It is time for me to crossover and BE in another batter that I have increasing to and above 3%.
Not saying nobody's making money trading rockets. But in my opinion if they are, they're either lucky or their discretion is doing the heavy lifting. Or both.
For you this is a great conclusion to reach. there is a great deal at hand in trading. I have found that a person really has to drill down to get anything done to begin to reach the potential of the markets.
To get a single and comprehensive FA/TA equities platform up and running is a major undertaking. In 2008, that is now possible and it can operate worldwide.
But for some people who feed their equities accounts with extracted capital from index trading, equities is the easy part.
The capacity of index markets is growing fast. Just as crosso ver trading is required in equities, it is also true that you have to be able to do partial fills in indexes to be able to exceed the capacity of the index market by a factor like, say five.