This is mathematically disprovable. Here is an example (many exist):
View attachment 254009
As you see in this vertical spread, you pay .85 for a spread with intrinsic value of 1.00. A stock ending at or above its current price is >50%. Therefore, the win probability here is >50%.
R:R. Max reward here is 1.65 ( = total ITM value of 2.5 - .85 in initial debit). Reward to Risk ratio is ~ 2:1 for a favorable R:R.
I may be wrong, but the math is pretty basic and rigorous. The only assumption here is that a stock is at least as likely to end at or above its current price. That seems to be an extremely robust long-term assumption. Perhaps I'm missing something?
You are talking about options. I am talking about actually trading with a chart and TA.
Not talking about spreads, not talking about arbitrage. Im talking about sitting your ass down on a 5min chart and trading in real time.