Need Advice
- Thread starter trader99
- Start date
in my opinion if you really want to succeed and make big money, you shouldn't do this part-time.. you should be devoted, but it can get quite stressful sometimes
While I agreed with what you are saying abstractly and in general, but in particular I don't think it's a very scalable approach. Thanks to my current arrangements where I do analytics consulting on-site and work remote the rest of the week, I have the time and flexibility to daytrade a few days a week.
What I noticed is that while I'm improving in the sense I no longer have huge loss days(*fingers crossed), I don't see how I can scale this manual trading up. Staring at the screen and hitting buy and sell is a lot of fun I must admit. I'm just trying to figure out if this is the best use of my time?
I mean some people(e.g. @Xela) are really good at it. Hats off to them! I admire such discipline and being able to execute one's edge(or having an edge in the first place). That takes intense practice and screen-time.
Maybe I'm just not very good(yet). Today I feel like for the most part, I went long when I should and short when I should. A couple of times I deviated against my plan and loss a little but made it back. Nothing crazy.
I'm just sitting here and projecting out into the future and weighing against various options and best use of time and opportunity cost.
Maybe because I really suck as a manual trader. I think in the long run I have to build trading systems to help me scale so I can run my biz and do trading. Also to rid of some of the biases and mistakes I've in the past. Not that my trading system will be perfect. But I'm hoping it will do better than what I do manually here.
I also have other elevated interests such as data science, analytics, blogging, public speaking, writing, compsci, mathematics etc that I want to continue to develop. And I'm not sure if went full-time trading I would be able to work on those since I will be stressed out with making steady returns on a small account.
In trading and in life you want to increase your optionality not decrease is what I'm saying...
Maybe some of you are really good screentraders banking it everyday, then hats off to you. Makes total sense to do full-time trading then.
Thanks goodness I never got back in LFIN. I thought about it but I was busy and missed out on the recent run-up. Now the stock is HALTED! SEC investigations. Might be delisted too...
Hey guys,
I feel like ET is my community so I feel compelled to give an update. I took a break from markets to focus on my analytics & data science consulting biz.
I also went back my old trades and did analyses to see the errors of my ways.
Long story short, I think I'm finally decent at executing my edge. It's one thing to know what to do and doing it. Most people know that exercising and eating healthy is good for you but few people do that consistently.
I go long when I should. I short when I should. I know some people and books say exits are more important than entries. I think that's baloney! They are BOTH important. I think the right type of entries could have saved me a lot of money lost in the past with my countertrend trades.
Now that I stopped countertrend trading I feel safer because I'm entering with the trend. Sure, a good exit strategy would have made me lose less money in the past when I countertrend. But wouldn't it be better to fix your entry method so you enter with the trend? So, bottomline entries are just as important as exits.
I still need to work on holding my winners longer. I've been doing a combination of real account and sim account trading. The sim account is to refine my execution and reinforce good habits. So now it's somewhat automatic. To those who say sim trading is worthless, then they are not using it properly. Also, I want to test size on sim. I trade 10 lots on it whereas in my real account I only trade 1 lot. So with 10 lots I can easily make several thousand a day pretty consistently. It's only been a few weeks. Don't want to declare victory yet.
So, this is huge improvements and going in the right direction. I can deposit more funds into my battered account so that it can trade 10+ lots. No problem. But before I do that I want to make sure I can do it consistently on sim. But in my real account I will scale gradually. Going from 1 lot to 2 to 3 then to 5 and 10. Not jump into 10 lots right away.
The reason why I feel so much better than in the past is that in the past I have winning streaks as well. But I think those winning streaks were mostly luck. I couldn't keep the gains because my tactics and strategies were just wrong. Countertrend trading and losing a bunch of money with the occasional big winner. Holding on to a scary countertrend trade and riding it until it becomes profitable. Maybe some people can do that consistently and make money.
This time around my trades are based on a sound high probability setups with proper exit strategy. So I enter when I should then exit. Sometimes I lose but it's still a sound trade. I'm OK with that. As long as I follow the process, I know the money will come.
With scalping(not seconds but minutes holds), you can move size and consistently make hundreds every trade. I should trust my charts reading because 95% they are right. I exit too soon because I look at bid/ask moving fast. But most of the time my chart reading is correct.
Anyhow, thanks to the encouragement of people like @Xela and others on here I feel like I can execute consistently. There's always more room for improvements.
To answer the question that ET wants to know, will I go FT?
The short answer is NO. I still like the stability and intellectual challenges of analytics & data science, AI, machine learning etc.
Maybe if I can consistently make about $5K a day then I might go FT. hehe.
I feel like ET is my community so I feel compelled to give an update. I took a break from markets to focus on my analytics & data science consulting biz.
I also went back my old trades and did analyses to see the errors of my ways.
Long story short, I think I'm finally decent at executing my edge. It's one thing to know what to do and doing it. Most people know that exercising and eating healthy is good for you but few people do that consistently.
I go long when I should. I short when I should. I know some people and books say exits are more important than entries. I think that's baloney! They are BOTH important. I think the right type of entries could have saved me a lot of money lost in the past with my countertrend trades.
Now that I stopped countertrend trading I feel safer because I'm entering with the trend. Sure, a good exit strategy would have made me lose less money in the past when I countertrend. But wouldn't it be better to fix your entry method so you enter with the trend? So, bottomline entries are just as important as exits.
I still need to work on holding my winners longer. I've been doing a combination of real account and sim account trading. The sim account is to refine my execution and reinforce good habits. So now it's somewhat automatic. To those who say sim trading is worthless, then they are not using it properly. Also, I want to test size on sim. I trade 10 lots on it whereas in my real account I only trade 1 lot. So with 10 lots I can easily make several thousand a day pretty consistently. It's only been a few weeks. Don't want to declare victory yet.
So, this is huge improvements and going in the right direction. I can deposit more funds into my battered account so that it can trade 10+ lots. No problem. But before I do that I want to make sure I can do it consistently on sim. But in my real account I will scale gradually. Going from 1 lot to 2 to 3 then to 5 and 10. Not jump into 10 lots right away.
The reason why I feel so much better than in the past is that in the past I have winning streaks as well. But I think those winning streaks were mostly luck. I couldn't keep the gains because my tactics and strategies were just wrong. Countertrend trading and losing a bunch of money with the occasional big winner. Holding on to a scary countertrend trade and riding it until it becomes profitable. Maybe some people can do that consistently and make money.
This time around my trades are based on a sound high probability setups with proper exit strategy. So I enter when I should then exit. Sometimes I lose but it's still a sound trade. I'm OK with that. As long as I follow the process, I know the money will come.
With scalping(not seconds but minutes holds), you can move size and consistently make hundreds every trade. I should trust my charts reading because 95% they are right. I exit too soon because I look at bid/ask moving fast. But most of the time my chart reading is correct.
Anyhow, thanks to the encouragement of people like @Xela and others on here I feel like I can execute consistently. There's always more room for improvements.
To answer the question that ET wants to know, will I go FT?
The short answer is NO. I still like the stability and intellectual challenges of analytics & data science, AI, machine learning etc.
Maybe if I can consistently make about $5K a day then I might go FT. hehe.
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Glad that you are getting centered. My two cents (since we have talked before). You might want to keep the lots low and slow 1-5 at this time. If a 2007-2009 or Feb 7-9th hit, you don't want to be shaking your head again saying "what have I done"!! We know those day are out there...We know a bid/ask can evaporate at any time. Just saying eyes wide open. Cabin
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Totally agreed. How about this plan and progression.
If I trade 1 lot consistently profitable and following trading rules for 1 month, then increase to 2 lots the next month. So it will take me 10 months to get to 10 lots. Or is that too slow?
Something to consider:
Sizing bumps can screw you up emotionally. Seen it time and time again - it can change your attitude towards taking an entry. It's always hardest going from a 1 lot to a 2 lot as compared to a 60 lot to a 65 lot.
Small bumps are the best. You don't want a sizing bump to enter into your subconscious and possibly sabotage you.
Reward consistency. For example, if you put together 3 winning days or trades in a row, bump yourself the smallest increment. Likewise, if you put together 2 losing days or trades in a row, bump yourself back to your previous position size. These are just some thoughts - risk tolerance is a very personal issue and it varies from trader to trader. I have seen first hand traders go from 1 lots to 50 lots (and more) over the course of a year using just such a consistency rewards-based strategy.
Good luck and great job on reorganizing yourself. Kudos to you
How about at 5 months stay at 5 lots for a year? You have a bird in the hand (your
analytics & data science consulting biz). You don't want to have to move more money into your account if a perfect storm occurs...
Or get out of the day trading...Do a buy and hold of great stocks. Find them in a down market (or industry) and buy and hold. The reason I say this is it almost seems like you may have an addiction to day trading. Don't know. It just seems to me you look like an alcoholic who says I will stop for 3 months. I'll go back and have one or two beers...See how I do. Up it each month...
If your system is correct it will be there years from now. Ray Kroc (McDonalds) made 1 to 2 cents on his hamburgers to start. Sam Walton (Walmart) started slow.
How about this...One more margin call and you will do the above (buy and hold). You'll sleep better at night.
Sounds absolutely right, to me.
Percentages: the increase from 1 lot to 2, in that sense, is the biggest.
If you have the funds, and the evidence, and the proven edge, and are planning to increase to 10 lots (barring accidents), I'd honestly be more inclined to start at 3-4 lots and increase gradually from there. Just my perspective (and doubtless one with which some will disagree.)
Great update post, above - and thanks for it.
