Need Advice on career change into trading
- Thread starter venturerider2
- Start date
I never thought my question would generate so many diverse responses - and with such emotion and passion! I love it!
For those of you who took the time to respond, I thank you. This has been a wonderful "read."
I'd like to say
1) You get big by thinking big (that's not just a gym slogan)
2) Being a winner in one business or several businesses does not guarantee that you will be a winner in trading (or anything else). Trading is a business also - let's remember that. You have to learn how to play the game. Not everyone will or can - but I'd rather bet on someone who has in the past.
3) If you think that trading is more difficult than starting, building and running another large business, then you probably have never built a real company.
4) If you think trading has more risk than owning and running a business, then you have never had many employees, building leases, health insurance costs, frivilous lawsuits, etc., and your business has never been crushed (along with your emotions) by a 3 year recession (twice, 89-92 and 01-03).
Yes, I've done OK and I've made money - but it did not come without its pain, trials and tribulations.
When the next recession hits and I have to fire many people, or not take a salary at all, and I have to watch our balance sheet hemmorage, people crying in my office, and our P/L get drilled through the floor, I'll be thinking about YOU! You who can put in a stop loss tomorrow or just make a decision to sit on the sidelines and not play the game today, or this week, or this month! Ahh, what freedom!
I wish you all well in your trading endeavors.
Venturerider2
For those of you who took the time to respond, I thank you. This has been a wonderful "read."
I'd like to say
1) You get big by thinking big (that's not just a gym slogan)
2) Being a winner in one business or several businesses does not guarantee that you will be a winner in trading (or anything else). Trading is a business also - let's remember that. You have to learn how to play the game. Not everyone will or can - but I'd rather bet on someone who has in the past.
3) If you think that trading is more difficult than starting, building and running another large business, then you probably have never built a real company.
4) If you think trading has more risk than owning and running a business, then you have never had many employees, building leases, health insurance costs, frivilous lawsuits, etc., and your business has never been crushed (along with your emotions) by a 3 year recession (twice, 89-92 and 01-03).
Yes, I've done OK and I've made money - but it did not come without its pain, trials and tribulations.
When the next recession hits and I have to fire many people, or not take a salary at all, and I have to watch our balance sheet hemmorage, people crying in my office, and our P/L get drilled through the floor, I'll be thinking about YOU! You who can put in a stop loss tomorrow or just make a decision to sit on the sidelines and not play the game today, or this week, or this month! Ahh, what freedom!
I wish you all well in your trading endeavors.
Venturerider2
It's all about probabilities. The OP "beat the odds" already with his success in business. Can he "win the lottery again?"
The probability that any random group of people succeeding in supporting themselves by trading, let alone making more than they would at a good job, is small. Those making decent wages for an extended time are an even smaller group.
And the ones here that are very supportive, are part of the fractional group that managed to survive. Yes, survivor bias (Read any of the "Millionaire Next Door" type books.) These successful traders know you can do it. Why? Because they did it.
But how many equally hard workers with a trading plan fell by the wayside? Many times the number of successful traders. We are taught that anybody can achieve anything, with hard work.
Would hard work allow you to play like Jordan? You couldn't do it without hard work, but, no, it is not enough.
And don't discount the effects of luck in all things. With bad luck, anyone will struggle. And who's to say that these successful traders or even the "super" traders didn't just have a run of great luck? (Zanger, et al)
Can you make it as a trader? No idea, but the odds are not good...
But heck - give it a try!
C
The probability that any random group of people succeeding in supporting themselves by trading, let alone making more than they would at a good job, is small. Those making decent wages for an extended time are an even smaller group.
And the ones here that are very supportive, are part of the fractional group that managed to survive. Yes, survivor bias (Read any of the "Millionaire Next Door" type books.) These successful traders know you can do it. Why? Because they did it.
But how many equally hard workers with a trading plan fell by the wayside? Many times the number of successful traders. We are taught that anybody can achieve anything, with hard work.
Would hard work allow you to play like Jordan? You couldn't do it without hard work, but, no, it is not enough.
And don't discount the effects of luck in all things. With bad luck, anyone will struggle. And who's to say that these successful traders or even the "super" traders didn't just have a run of great luck? (Zanger, et al)
Can you make it as a trader? No idea, but the odds are not good...
But heck - give it a try!
C
That's not fair succeeding in a business and equating that to lottery. That's bull. You're saying he's almost equal to someone who works at Walmart for the past 10 years and the only edge he had was that he got lucky in the "lottery"?
My brother has successfully started and sold 2 businesses and is currently running his 3rd business with no problems.
Some people have what it takes - physical and mental toughness.
As far as bias that's true, but some people also believe in taking risk to get the big kahuna. If we're all afraid of risks, we wouldn't be in this market trying to make money.
My brother has successfully started and sold 2 businesses and is currently running his 3rd business with no problems.
Some people have what it takes - physical and mental toughness.
As far as bias that's true, but some people also believe in taking risk to get the big kahuna. If we're all afraid of risks, we wouldn't be in this market trying to make money.
Business has so much more margin for error it is not even funny.
Business is about relationships, spoting opportunity and living up to your promises.
That does not mean squat to the market. The market does not give a shit if you are smart, your word is your bond, you have charisma, you are man of vision, you are a leader, you have compassion, you know how to make manufactures deliver on time.
The market is a far tougher master than the business world.
Business is about relationships, spoting opportunity and living up to your promises.
That does not mean squat to the market. The market does not give a shit if you are smart, your word is your bond, you have charisma, you are man of vision, you are a leader, you have compassion, you know how to make manufactures deliver on time.
The market is a far tougher master than the business world.
jem,
don't be stupid. Do you have any facts or statistics that can prove without any reasonable doubt that a business is easier to start than a trading career other than statement "9 out of 10 traders fail"?
Also, i disputed the claim that opening a business is like a lottery. If that's the case, then my brother has won the lottery 3 times. Now, that's not such a smart statement was it? If that was the case, don't you think you might as well start your own multi-million dollar business rather than deal with the market since it's so much easier to start a business?
Think about it.
don't be stupid. Do you have any facts or statistics that can prove without any reasonable doubt that a business is easier to start than a trading career other than statement "9 out of 10 traders fail"?
Also, i disputed the claim that opening a business is like a lottery. If that's the case, then my brother has won the lottery 3 times. Now, that's not such a smart statement was it? If that was the case, don't you think you might as well start your own multi-million dollar business rather than deal with the market since it's so much easier to start a business?
Think about it.
Not the point I was trying to make. That's why I had "lottery" in quotes.
Not that he "got lucky" like a lottery, but that he already achieved great success in business. Sure, hard work, intuition, never say die, etc, etc, goes a long way to helping with success, but are you saying that the, valid, afaik stats that say small businesses fail at a 80%-90% rate after a few years, is complete BS?
Were all those people stupid? Lazy? Gave up too easily? Etc? Yeah, I'm sure there was some of that, but not all.
Can you be a big success without working hard and not giving up? No.
Will working hard and not giving up be enough to make a good living at trading for an extended time? No.
All I'm saying is, take ANY large group of people trying to trade for a living and you will find the VAST majority fail. And it has been said by brokers that those we consider successful in life like Doctors, Lawyers and Engineers make poor traders as a group - just like everybody else.
Success at one line of work is no guarantee of success at trading. So, once again, THE ODDS ARE TERRIBLE.
But hell, give it a try! Just more liquidity.
(and please read "Fooled By Randomness.")
I have been knocking out 7 figures consistently since I started trading in the late 90's. I can tell you this much about how likely this is. I had a salesman from a large bulge bracket firm visit my office recently. This person actually use to run the New York office of one of the biggest prop trading firms (that was subsequently bought out). They tell me after seeing my ocean front pad and some of my P&L that I throw their way that in all their years running a big NY prop firm they have never ever seen anyone make this kind of money. They ran a prop shop and they knew all the other prop shops in town and they said never had they seen these kind of numbers consistently over this many years. Sure they had a few traders who made 7 figures in the late 90's and gave it all back when the market tanked, because it turns out that buying tech isn't a good long run strategy. I have since developed a business relationship with this persons firm and I trust what they tell me is true and accurate, unlike the pipe dreams people try to sell you.
The secret to my success is simple. I do not particularly care for trading, but I stumbled upon a market inefficiency that was just dying to be exploited. In other words, before I knew how to trade I had an edge. It is the only thing that matters. Your edge must have some meat to it and not be idiotic things like "my personality" or "my trading ability" etc. If you are not sure what your edge is you don't have one. If you really have and edge, you could tell someone in one sentence. It would not be a secret formula or a trendline or a candle stick or something that you program into tradestation.
After growing in size and branching out and doing business with many brokers around the world I have met a few prop traders at big bulge bracket firms. These are quite different from the prop shops advertised here. If I ask one of these guys what they do they can say it in one short sentence.
I am just a tiny spec that doesn't even matter to the firms I do business with. Even though I am very successful on a personal level, the big firms that I do business with are not threatened if I am doing the same trade as their prop desk nor do I believe that they particularly care to inspect my trading to see how I am doing a trade or executing a particular strategy.
When I started this I had just finished grad school and was working as an actuary. I was married to a woman who was an accountant. We both had good salaries and I ended up selling my wifes car and riding the bus (I did give her mine), maxing out our credit cards and borrowing money from a family member that I was supposed to use to pay off a student loan. This did not amount to much and we lived frugally. I did not quit my job for a year, I made 275K that first year and did not spend a dime (aside from taxes). My wife did not quit for a year after that and when she did quit we had over a million saved and still lived in a cheap apartment. I have told all my friends that want to do what I do that it is a bad idea. I have saved friends and family a lot of money by deterring them from this business. You see I am not going to give out my secrets and I'm pretty sure their idea of trading is to just find a few stocks that they think will outperform and buy them.
I guess the bottom line is don't fall for all the hype and BS and make sure you know exactly what your edge is. If you don't find one, do yourself a favor and don't even bother trading.
The secret to my success is simple. I do not particularly care for trading, but I stumbled upon a market inefficiency that was just dying to be exploited. In other words, before I knew how to trade I had an edge. It is the only thing that matters. Your edge must have some meat to it and not be idiotic things like "my personality" or "my trading ability" etc. If you are not sure what your edge is you don't have one. If you really have and edge, you could tell someone in one sentence. It would not be a secret formula or a trendline or a candle stick or something that you program into tradestation.
After growing in size and branching out and doing business with many brokers around the world I have met a few prop traders at big bulge bracket firms. These are quite different from the prop shops advertised here. If I ask one of these guys what they do they can say it in one short sentence.
I am just a tiny spec that doesn't even matter to the firms I do business with. Even though I am very successful on a personal level, the big firms that I do business with are not threatened if I am doing the same trade as their prop desk nor do I believe that they particularly care to inspect my trading to see how I am doing a trade or executing a particular strategy.
When I started this I had just finished grad school and was working as an actuary. I was married to a woman who was an accountant. We both had good salaries and I ended up selling my wifes car and riding the bus (I did give her mine), maxing out our credit cards and borrowing money from a family member that I was supposed to use to pay off a student loan. This did not amount to much and we lived frugally. I did not quit my job for a year, I made 275K that first year and did not spend a dime (aside from taxes). My wife did not quit for a year after that and when she did quit we had over a million saved and still lived in a cheap apartment. I have told all my friends that want to do what I do that it is a bad idea. I have saved friends and family a lot of money by deterring them from this business. You see I am not going to give out my secrets and I'm pretty sure their idea of trading is to just find a few stocks that they think will outperform and buy them.
I guess the bottom line is don't fall for all the hype and BS and make sure you know exactly what your edge is. If you don't find one, do yourself a favor and don't even bother trading.