need a winner fellas

optioncoach said:
You need a reason to believe the market is going to go down, not based on election cycles. If you google ETF and indexes you can find a list of all the indexes traded as ETFs and pick your winners to short or buy puts. Otherwise you are just looking for someone to hand you a stock to go and buy puts on.


Naked means shorting something outright without it being covered. SO I still am not clear what you mean by naked with respect to ETFS.
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Coach...you can definitely read because the my first post was asking for suggestions.
Hand picked suggestions.

I'm well aware I can find a list of thousands of ETFs option chains.
I'm well aware you don't want to help or even josh a bit in here.

Since you are so vehemently against helping me find an ETF or 2...are you willing to give me advice on an choosing an expiration date? Or are you just on patrol around here?
That FED meeting tho.....

My belief is not solely based on election cycles...I actually just ran the numbers before I posted that. There are other factors; overdue factors, and I sit right next to our quant, and we backtested quite a bit of crap. And all in all, September's are historically (since the aughts) down...surprisingly more times than Octobers are...that's what prompted me to get in a touch earlier than I should have.
 
THe problem is I cannot give you my opinion of the market to make the trade for you. If you are worried go further out in expiration. If you want to short the market just pick a market ETF like SPX, NDX or SPY or futures such as NQ and ES.
 
if you want a winner: buy silver, it just made a double bottom intraday and it's about to break it's bull-flag ... that should give you some nice coin ...
 
===need a winner fellas===

U think somebody here needs a looser? :)

Trading is not about finding winner stocks, its about finding winner strategy.

With the winner strategy one can trade the same stock (or other instrument) for years, day after day, regardless where its doing: up, down, sideways...

Without the winner strategy even when one stumble on the winner stock (and what a hell is that: the stock with the known direction of price movement :) ? ) chances of the success are very limited (one does not know how to handle the trade without a winner strategy), and mathematically it becomes a loser's game with a predictable ending.....
 
I've been long silver since 2004. Not tradeable for me. I think it will retract from now to the eoy.

This is a gamble. It's essentially a one or two time short strategy...that's the end game here. I'm not looking to be an elite trader...don't have time or resources.
Cheers to you if you are able to have the capacity and are successful.
I'm inherently long for all other purposes.

I'm looking for at least a 50 bp move up towards the end of the day before I initiate this. I've got a handful of way otm puts still active just in case I don't get back in before the shtf.

And with Trump pulling ahead in Ohio...anything at anytime is possible.
 
Persdawg said:
This is a gamble.
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Everything in this life is the gamble.

What traders try to do in the market is to play only the gambles with the positive math expectations (that what I call potential winners) and avoid playing all others.

The problem is even if someone will indicate for you the gamble with positive math expectation you would not know how to handle it without the proper method.

Its like playing soccer and asking Messy to kick a ball for you (not a penalty). Ok, he kicked, what then? You will be playing the rest of the game? How? You need him to play instead of you (we call it the trade management)... Understand what i am talking about?
 
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Furthermore,

I think when you saying gamble you mean something like asking for help in choosing a number on the roulette.

The problem is even with this comparison, you may need to play series of bets (trades) in order to efficiently collect on the perceived trend down (even a gambling house, though they have a positive math expectation in the roulette gamble, can not predict one bet, but rightfully expect to capitalize after series of bets).

That is why many people with the correct sense of the market direction are unable to capitalize on it (expecting to do just one trade) - they just exiting to early or too late, unaware how to enter the same trend over and over again while its going down, when to hold the short position, than how to capitalize on its pullbacks with long position, then again short, etc etc...

If you think that its possible just to open short or long and to enter the Paradise you mistaken... You may be lucky this or other time.. but that's it..eventually the loss is almost guaranteed (unless you lucky all you life).

That's why you came here: to ask for something that is beyond just luck... No?

Beyond luck is only the working method with the working trader.
 
nice AAPL call. I'm not able to do anything associated with AAPL. but good for you nonetheless.

Pretty sure I'm going with ACWX and IWM.

I can get good European and EM exposure.
Expecting Brexit retrace and the US will lead the EMs downs
Small caps are in a real struggle lately.

These are two of the best QTD returning indices in general, and they both tend to fall the furthest in these Fall months.

I will say that as a contrarian, all of the analysts', etc negative talk is now beyond tired, but I still believe some things are already written.
 
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Liquidity risk here?
 
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