Nearly Random Entry vs a High Probability Entry

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As to you comment on the entry.....Imagine if you could identify the point at which there was a probability the your target would be reached. Then you could alter your statement to read...pick your entry based on a probability...and exit or reverse based on management.

Your point of always a plus tick movement and a minus tick movement from ANY entry is understood.

Couldn't you agree if there was a way to enter at a probable time could enhance your methodology?

Granted there would be less trades but you might be more profitable.

Oldtraders statement about you claim of randomness verses a controlled exit made 1/2 the trade in contradiction to your statement is agreed to.

Michael B.
 
Quote from dbphoenix:



It's not my intention to shoot anything down. I just don't see the point in all this. Even if Nitro and Damir were to agree on some means of verifying trades, the "contest" would have to go on for more than just a few weeks in order to reach any reasonable level of significance (otherwise, there would be all sorts of excuses for why this person or that person did or didn't do well, making for all sorts of threads and dozens if not hundreds of posts blah blah blah).

And, in the end, so what? The best one can hope for is some indication that Nitro is a better trader than Damir or vice-versa. The results will prove nothing regarding the desirability of random (or nearly random or non-directionally-biased) entries over high probabilility entries.

Of course, if we're far beyond that point, I suggest we close the thread and start a new one entitled Celebrity DeathMatch.
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I dont care about the match or contest or who is better or not better non of this will make me more money... I would just like to see LOTTOGIRL In action. So if NITRO picks entry and which direction in real time and Damir tells us the rest in realtime, I dont see how we can get "faked out" as u said...once again please elaborate how we can get faked out, i may be missing something...You may not be interested but some of us are....peace
 
No, Nitro's picking nothing. He's not in the equation. Someone posted a suggestion in this thread, a method of using the lotto results, to provide details of entry. LottoGirl is named for her method of entry.

Quote from ElCubano:



I dont care about the match or contest or who is better or not better non of this will make me more money... I would just like to see LOTTOGIRL In action. So if NITRO picks entry and which direction in real time and Damir tells us the rest in realtime, I dont see how we can get "faked out" as u said...once again please elaborate how we can get faked out, i may be missing something...You may not be interested but some of us are....peace
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Quote from dbphoenix:



It's not my intention to shoot anything down. I just don't see the point in all this. Even if Nitro and Damir were to agree on some means of verifying trades, the "contest" would have to go on for more than just a few weeks in order to reach any reasonable level of significance (otherwise, there would be all sorts of excuses for why this person or that person did or didn't do well, making for all sorts of threads and dozens if not hundreds of posts blah blah blah).
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You know, for someone who isn't out "to shoot anything down", you're doing an admirable job of it.

Do you honestly mean that you can't see the point in any of this, db? Honestly?
That if damir, or ANYONE, can post trades in real time -- where it can be verified by others or the 'time stamp' on the chat that he could realistically have entered/exited at the posted price -- with haphazardly/non-systematically/lottery-selected entries and be profitable, even if only for a brief couple of weeks, or a set of, say, 30 trades, you wouldn't see ANY value in this? It wouldn't cause you to even slightly question what you think you 'know' about entries? Incredible.


And, in the end, so what? The best one can hope for is some indication that Nitro is a better trader than Damir or vice-versa. The results will prove nothing regarding the desirability of random (or nearly random or non-directionally-biased) entries over high probabilility entries.


What? That's the best that can be hoped for? Lol.
Get this: Nitro doesn't even factor into this. Who cares if damir's results beat nitro's or not. That's totally beside the point. If damir can show that positive results can be obtained no matter what the entry method used, then there is value in that alone.
Does that mean I'd immediately throw out my entire suite of trading tactics? Of course not. But it doesn't mean I wouldn't find it interesting to see. Doesn't me you will, but then this thread wasn't ever really about what you thought, was it?


Of course, if we're far beyond that point, I suggest we close the thread and start a new one entitled Celebrity DeathMatch.

Well, if that's all you have left to say, might I suggest you attempt to curb your apparently innate tendency to dictate to others what and how they should think and simply leave this thread? Because I do believe that a correlation study would uncover a remarkable relationship between your involvement in a thread and its likelihood of being moved to chit chat.
 
IF he can post trades in real time, IF the trades can be verified, IF a test of statistical significance can be met, IF whatever . . .

Once again, alfonso, you demonstrate your talent for setting up straw men.
 
Quote from GeeTO69:



You can verify the trades yourself by looking at the fucking price in realtime. Now shut the fuck up.
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Hey, if alfonso hadn't brought me back into this, I'd be gone.

Knock yourself out.
 
Nicely put alfonso. All the other stuff on this thread is really a sideshow. The real meat is whether exit techniques alone are enough to make a winning system or method. Then it becomes a question of the way the exit techniques work, or why the exit techniques work in particular with an entry that lacks any kind of setup or pattern or rhyme or reason. And can this exit technique be successfully extrapolated to be used with other entry techniques, with greater results. And the discussions of random/non-random, how to prove someone's results and all the other stuff just fades away.
 
If scalp is not the essence of a style of trading I don't know what you mean by style of trading :). If I talk about scalp it is because scalp is mostly THE style of MARKET MAKERS and market makers are mostly ARBITRAGISTS that is to say they usely buy and sell any time so RANDOMLY - from a certain point of view. You can do the same except that your risk is much more uncertain than theirs but you will not take conscious of that because it is a rare event but almost certain for novices. And contrary to market makers your trade will not be simultaneous.

When you paper trade your order doesn't influence the market (maker). When you will place a real trade the market maker can move its price. In swing it doesn't matter in scalp it matters since the order of your gain can be in the same order than the slippage. Above all at term this style is due to a systemic risk inherent to itself and that you won't see neither in paper trading or real trading during a few months because it is a rare event.

Now as for me I won't follow the subject any more because I have already participated in such thread so many times in past years that people will polemic endlessly. Nevertheless it is amusing for those who never see that kind of debates between "pure" scalpers and swingers (by pure scalpers I mean scalpers that use local random model because today scalpers in large sense of term use something else - like me today).

Quote from alfonso:





Harry, I think damir is talking about an intraday style of trading, although not what you'd call 'scalping'. However, since he will be trading highly liquid futures contracts, I don't foresee fills being an issue. If he posts the trades real time, a 'T', for example, signifying the moment he hits the Buy or Sell key, then others watching the quotes could easily confirm whether or not it would have been likely to have been filled at that price in real life. Seriously, I think this would hardly be an issue at all.
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Harry, what market makers are there on the ES and NQ?

The whole point is that paper trades can be considered realistic for fill purposes in these markets because in real life there's no chance your 5 lot sitting on the bid is going to scare the market away from you.
 
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