Nearly Random Entry vs a High Probability Entry
- Thread starter damir00
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You are incorrect on all counts. For example, all Susan would have to do is strip the clearing statement of all personal information, and make the .html of the trades made available on a public server, not the actual blotter
As far as necessary for proof of efficacy, THERE IS NO GREATER PROOF.
Nope, realtime chatroom posts are WORTHLESS as far as proof. Perhaps it is enough for you - but take note that in the real world where real people put real money behind real people, not people behing handles in a public forum, the MINIMUM is an auditable track record. No one says, "Ooh aah, come to the Elite Trader chatroom and watch me trade. You'll see how good I am." Paul Tudor Jones replies, "Son, you are the best random trader I have ever seen in a chatroom, and the EliteTrader chatroom no less. Here is 100M dollars to manage for me in your Random Capital Management Fund."
See above.
All worthless as far as efficacy of method goes. See above.
I have a hard time restraining myself from laughing.
The lotto numbers as a trade time selector and direction is a perfectly good random number generator. The only thing that those that are interested in following this event is to ask for EXACT methods of how the balls will be used to get a time and direction.
Because the real traders couldn't give a cahoot about whether their "methods" pit against this on or any other one, only that their own method lines their pockets at the end of the day.
Fine, when this guy is done with his realtime paper trades, and he has made a million fake dollars, Susan will be waiting for you with her arms open. Just remember to mention that you are a random trader so that she knows to tell the risk department to keep their eye on you.
nitro
lol dude, why do you keep singling me out? i'm open to any idea if facts support it. i'm very interested to see how this lotto thing turns out.
what i said earlier was that i believe some entries are better than others. i don't know if you agree or disagree with that. i thought you disagreed. i don't want to bicker about this, though.
BTW, WILL EVERYONE PLEASE STOP ARGUING OVER THE DEFINITION OF RANDOM!!!!!? ANYTHING CLOSE TO "RANDOM" IS ALL WE NEED IN THIS CASE!!!!!
Damir,
If you were actually making good money, why would u bother wanting to prove and waste your time posting trades real time? Aren't you taking away from managing your trades while you waste your time chatting?
I personally believe money management and the exit are more important than entry. However, you cannot solely base your trades on money management and the exit. This is because... money management cannot save you from a extreme down or up day. Take this for example. Markets are tanking like a mofo. You flip your coin. Heads = buy. Tails = short. Guess what it lands on heads. You buy into the falling market. You attempt to manage your money as everyone is heading for the doors. Your stop order doesn't even hit in, cuz there are NO BUYERS! Next thing you know, your down 10% in less than 1 minute. Damn, stupid coin! Its getting close to EOD. You can either sell out and take your 10% loss. Or bag hold, and pray to god that it'll come back up tomorrow. Talk about money management ehh.
The opposite could easily happen to, and you'd be up 10% in 1 minute. But, wouldn't it have been 1000x smarter to go with the news, fundamentals, and technicals instead? I think so....
Btw, if you really want to prove your skills, take a picture of you and your house/car/woman. That'll be enough proof for me...
xbrxx
If you were actually making good money, why would u bother wanting to prove and waste your time posting trades real time? Aren't you taking away from managing your trades while you waste your time chatting?
I personally believe money management and the exit are more important than entry. However, you cannot solely base your trades on money management and the exit. This is because... money management cannot save you from a extreme down or up day. Take this for example. Markets are tanking like a mofo. You flip your coin. Heads = buy. Tails = short. Guess what it lands on heads. You buy into the falling market. You attempt to manage your money as everyone is heading for the doors. Your stop order doesn't even hit in, cuz there are NO BUYERS! Next thing you know, your down 10% in less than 1 minute. Damn, stupid coin! Its getting close to EOD. You can either sell out and take your 10% loss. Or bag hold, and pray to god that it'll come back up tomorrow. Talk about money management ehh.
The opposite could easily happen to, and you'd be up 10% in 1 minute. But, wouldn't it have been 1000x smarter to go with the news, fundamentals, and technicals instead? I think so....
Btw, if you really want to prove your skills, take a picture of you and your house/car/woman. That'll be enough proof for me...
xbrxx
I do not mean to be a smarta** but you are talkig about TRADE management....not money management.
In trading when referring to the term money management a definition of this will include a range from trade size determination to asset allocation.
Michael B.
In trading when referring to the term money management a definition of this will include a range from trade size determination to asset allocation.
Michael B.
Isn't the point of the use of the word "random" mentioned in this thread to illustrate that the entry point does not matter.
Why do we discuss this. In fact sometime the end does justify the means. The guy's point was to draw attention to his trade management and money management and not to his entries.
The market does not move randomly. Trend following is logical and a sound conclusion to the observation of price movement on the ES.....just take my word for it.
As far as trade management and money management I can agree to the premise that it could effect the outcome of a methodology.
I personally like to strategize and evaluate my entries however. the trade must make sense....so this entry of throwing a dart is for the nimble minded and experienced only.
Michael B.
Why do we discuss this. In fact sometime the end does justify the means. The guy's point was to draw attention to his trade management and money management and not to his entries.
The market does not move randomly. Trend following is logical and a sound conclusion to the observation of price movement on the ES.....just take my word for it.
As far as trade management and money management I can agree to the premise that it could effect the outcome of a methodology.
I personally like to strategize and evaluate my entries however. the trade must make sense....so this entry of throwing a dart is for the nimble minded and experienced only.
Michael B.
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