Nearly Random Entry vs a High Probability Entry

[TriPack]

The market doesn't dictate anything about trades, whether feasibility or timeframe. All of that is in the mind of the trader.

Quote from TriPack:



If this is true, why can't I hypnotize myself to believe I can make $1 million dollars a day trading a $5K account? Your statement makes no sense.

If the market doesn't dictate anything about trades, whether feasibility (profitability) or timeframe (how many opportunities to capture X points exist during a given day), and profitability and trading opportunities are truly in the mind of the trader then it stands to reason that I could:

hypnotize myself to believe I can make $1 million dollars a day trading a $5K account - and accomplish this feat merely by putting my mind to it.

Thus I repeat, your statement makes no sense and is false. Maybe you should spell out exactly what it is you are talking about, as I believe I have made extremely logical arguments in this and my previous posts on this subject.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from TriPack:

If the market doesn't dictate anything about trades, whether feasibility (profitability) or timeframe (how many opportunities to capture X points exist during a given day), and profitability and trading opportunities are truly in the mind of the trader then it stands to reason that I could:

hypnotize myself to believe I can make $1 million dollars a day trading a $5K account - and accomplish this feat merely by putting my mind to it.

Thus I repeat, your statement makes no sense and is false. Maybe you should spell out exactly what it is you are talking about, as I believe I have made extremely logical arguments in this and my previous posts on this subject.

Of course you could "hypnotize [yourself] to believe that [you could] make $1 million a day" etc etc. But that wouldn't make it rational. But none of that would be the market's fault. The market is simply there. Whatever opportunities there may or may not be are in your head.

As for the number of trades, there are quite a few choices between one and 6 billion. By indulging in hyperbole, you make the argument silly.

One of your more interesting comments, however, has been "IMO, this is why his system works". What leads you to believe that his "system", whatever it is, works?

 

[TriPack]

Quote from dbphoenix:



Of course you could "hypnotize [yourself] to believe that [you could] make $1 million a day" etc etc. But that wouldn't make it rational. But none of that would be the market's fault. The market is simply there. Whatever opportunities there may or may not be are in your head.

As for the number of trades, there are quite a few choices between one and 6 billion. By indulging in hyperbole, you make the argument silly.

One of your more interesting comments, however, has been "IMO, this is why his system works". What leads you to believe that his "system", whatever it is, works?

The answer to your own question is in your statement above. you state "all in your head". You also state "rational"

What is it that is imposing the rationality? Is the rationality in your head or is the rationality in the market?

Hint: If the rationality is in your head, then an irrational person wouldn't be bound by rationality and thus any fantasy could be achieved in the market by an irrational person.

To the more important part of the discussion: you'll have to draw your own conclusions - read damir's journal for your answer.

 

[baggerlord]

When is lottotrade going to start?

 

[nitro]

Of course you are correct, but if they don't get it by now, you are going to bang your head against the ET wall.

Your argument(s) are IRREFUTABLE. Any time you have a positive expectation, you want to roll that "dice" as many times as possible.

nitro

Quote from size:



I did not give any requirements for anyone to do anything. I only entered into this interesting discussion with the intention of putting some logical thoughts on the table.

It's not hard to understand that if someone can be profitable using completely random entries with money management principles (or exit strategies) alone, then he should be able to compound this into more trades, more markets, more products (I assume he meant any product). Of course 21,000 times a day is unrealistic. But with far far less than this you would soon be the best trader that ever lived. Who else could close their eyes, hit a keystroke when he felt like it, and trade out profitably?

 

[TriPack]

Damir's system is called Noisebox. He is exploiting the market's naturally occuring noise in his exit routine. This is the reason he doesn't care whether his system signals an long or short entry signal. He knows the nature of the market is to oscillate, backfill and retrace. The market in doing what it does best (oscillate, backfill, retrace) provides enough "noise" for his exit to get him out profitably (in most cases).

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from TriPack:



The answer to your own question is in your statement above. you state "all in your head". You also state "rational"

What is it that is imposing the rationality? Is the rationality in your head or is the rationality in the market?

Hint: If the rationality is in your head, then an irrational person wouldn't be bound by rationality and thus any fantasy could be achieved in the market by an irrational person.

To the more important part of the discussion: you'll have to draw your own conclusions - read damir's journal for your answer.

If you believe that it is rational to expect that you can make $1m a day out of $5k account, best of luck. But whether you can do so or not has nothing to do with the market itself. If you don't understand that, you don't understand the nature of what the market is presenting to you.

As to drawing my own conclusions, that wasn't my question. You said "IMO, this is why his system works". Why do you believe that his system works?

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from TriPack:

Damir's system is called Noisebox. He is exploiting the market's naturally occuring noise in his exit routine. This is the reason he doesn't care whether his system signals an long or short entry signal. He knows the nature of the market is to oscillate, backfill and retrace. The market in doing what it does best (oscillate, backfill, retrace) provides enough "noise" for his exit to get him out profitably (in most cases).

And you're ready to give this your ringing endorsement after only a month?

 

[TriPack]

Ok last try.

Quote from dbphoenix:


If you believe that it is rational to expect that you can make $1m a day out of $5k account, best of luck.

The ridiculous example proves the point - rationality must come in. But it is simply not possible to make more points than the market offers. That is the reality.

But whether you can do so or not has nothing to do with the market itself. If you don't understand that, you don't understand the nature of what the market is presenting to you.

As Horace said: you cannot give what you have not got.

I'll rephrase to fit the situation: you can't earn more than what is available.

As to drawing my own conclusions, that wasn't my question. You said "IMO, this is why his system works". Why do you believe that his system works?

Read damir's journal, and see my last post and then draw your own conclusions.

 

[TriPack]

Quote from dbphoenix:



And you're ready to give this your ringing endorsement after only a month?

What endorsement? You wanted a spoon fed explanation and so I gave it to you, end of story.

Now the question goes to you: why do you feel that others are obliged to spoon feed you?