Nearly Random Entry vs a High Probability Entry

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Quote from damir00:

first it's post a trade, then it's post a blotter, then it's open a new account...if you're going to step up, then step up, let's get this contest rolling.

i'm ready to start tomorrow.
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Whaaaaaaaaaaaat?

Below is the FIRST post I made to this thread.

Quote from nitro:


I will wager you that I will wipe the floor with you if you agree to 1 condition - that you trade REAL money on your so called random entries, not just claim that your are. So I will "flip a coin" each day, and tell you when to get in and which direction. It is up to you to get out. It is up to you how many times I "flip the coin" each day.

That is, your entries and exits have to verifiable (auditable) and that you have a blotter showing your entries and exits and P/L on each.

Up for the challenge?

nitro
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How am I going from post a trade, to post a blotter, to open an account? In that post, I stated clearly that you MUST trade with real money, and that the trades MUST be auditable by being able to INSPECT your blotter. ALL OF THIS WAS STATED IN MY FIRST POST.

That means we (anyone at EliteTrader) or a third party is able to see WITH THEIR OWN TWO EYES that you are making REAL money or losing REAL money on these random entries.

If you have another suggestion as to how to be able to proceed with this, let me know. My reason for suggesting it was that _I_ trade more than just ES, or NQ, or YM. I also trade QQQ, listed stocks, some options, and once in a while NAZ stocks. I rarely trade YM in the summer, though for the sake of this contest, I would have no problems doing so.

That is why I wanted to open a seperate account, so that we are able to let people peek in on our respective trades, without other trades that we may make on our accounts so as to compare your YM trades with mine simply and just be able to stare at a ending balance column to see who is winning.

It is clear to me that you do not trade this "random system" with REAL money, as all that I have said is clear as daylight _FROM_THE_BEGINNING_ and you are cleverly trying to dodge me.

But if you are backing out of my challenge to you because you do not even have a spare $5K to set up a seperate account (LOL :D) and yet are challenging traders on this site, ask your broker to allow read only access to your blotter so that we can see that you are actually making these trades.

EVEN IF you do not want to meet this challenge in this way, I WILL ACCOMODATE you by having you post your PAPER TRADES, entries and exits, in REALTIME, on the EliteTrader chatroom. How more accomidating can I be than that?

I assume you will be in the chatroom tomorrow since you are ready.

nitro
 
if you trade with random entries - are you always in the market? since every single tick and every single moment throughout a trading session is good enough to enter and to make money.

like - 1st random entry of the day - trade management - exit - and immediately next (random)entry ...??

if not - why not?
 
Quote from nitro:


Let's us both open an account with a broker, say IB or FFastTrade for the purpose of this experiment. All it takes is $5K to trade 1 YM or 1 ES or 1 NQ. We can keep our respective identities secret to each other. Only the broker need know our identities.

At the end of the day, we will allow anyone to look at the trades made by allowing read-only access to the P/L, and we will allow all of ET to look in as well.

If we could not set this up easily with IB, perhaps Sioux (Susan) from FFastTrade can help set up the account.

Also, _ONE_ trade a day :confused: Are you an Investor or a Trader?


nitro
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NITRO,

OK
I'm game....

And...of course I will exercise complete confidentiality

Susan
 
LottoGirl should be up and active this weekend. she will post an entire week's worth of entries in advance, and will also have a consistent, public set of exit rules. the entries will be randomly short or long and at a random time of the day. the random number generator will be saturday's lotto numbers, i have not finalized which yet, but that, too will be posted for all to see.

gekko isn't even going to be able to beat lottery balls, so if he truly is in the top 5% of ETers, well...

this is going to be fun!

:-)
 
nitro, you are free to do what you want. LottoGirl will have easily verifiable results, the onus will then be on you to protect your little fiefdom by offering a little transparency of your own.

but don't worry, i doubt anyone is expecting you to.

four thousand posts, lol.
 
Next time you challenge a trader on this board, make sure you can back it up with REAL money.

If you had started the thread with a simple, I think I can trade randomly and do well, instead of challenging traders, I doubt anyone would have bothered you.

nitro
Quote from damir00:

nitro, you are free to do what you want. LottoGirl will have easily verifiable results, the onus will then be on you to protect your little fiefdom by offering a little transparency of your own.

but don't worry, i doubt anyone is expecting you to.

four thousand posts, lol.
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Susan,

Thanks. I doubt this clown even has $5k.

nitro
Quote from Sioux:





NITRO,

OK
I'm game....

And...of course I will exercise complete confidentiality

Susan
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Quote from damir00:



didn't you just blow up? again?
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Blowing up is more a function of leverage than strategy. We are discussing strategies here really.
 
Quote from damir00:



i see this statement - and variants like it - posted all over ET and i have to admit, i don't get it. pick a random spoos intraday chart from a random number of days ago. pick a random tick on that intraday chart. randomly pick long or short.

now follow that trade out.

the reality of the market is that 99% of ticks will provide both a profitable short AND a profitable long. how much higher probability are you looking for?

you already have what you think you need. the problem isn't finding a way to enter the market - you can enter it anytime you want - the problem is figuruing out how to *exit* the market. anybody - absolutely anybody - can pick successful entry points because almost every entry point has the potential to be a successful entry point.

there is no edge in picking entries, none whatsoever. the only edge out there is money management, and the solution to that comes from you as a trader: what are you comfortable risking, holding etc.

you have to answer that first.
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wrong.

surfer
 
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