Nah, at least after the coming expiration, may someone starts to sell. Do you understand the situation in which there is simply no seller. You know what will happen when there is no real seller?
Nearing an intermediate top?
- Thread starter Sarasota
- Start date
I submit for your review, an interesting comparison of different times here at EliteTrader. Many, many months ago, the market kept tanking, setting new lows. Well, not brand new, but you know what I mean. And there was this person who went by the nickname of Lundy. Lundy kept trying to call the bottom, kept adding to losers, raising the stakes and never admitting he was wrong. But the market kept sinking.
To make a short story shorter (what is that, a triple pun?
), Lundy vanished, and soon after we found the bottom. He came back, but that's a different story.
Now we have been going up, and setting new highs. And, we've had a new person who keeps trying to call the top, keeps adding to losers, raising the stakes and never (well, extremely rarely) admitting he is wrong. Interestingly, while Lundy was generally frowned upon, this new person has indeed produced profits and pulled off some amazing turnarounds - so the comparison is far from perfect. However, this person also appears to have vanished.
So perhaps we are indeed near a top, when all the bears throw in the towel. Or maybe not, this analysis is almost worth what y'all paid to read it - zilch.
To make a short story shorter (what is that, a triple pun?
), Lundy vanished, and soon after we found the bottom. He came back, but that's a different story.Now we have been going up, and setting new highs. And, we've had a new person who keeps trying to call the top, keeps adding to losers, raising the stakes and never (well, extremely rarely) admitting he is wrong. Interestingly, while Lundy was generally frowned upon, this new person has indeed produced profits and pulled off some amazing turnarounds - so the comparison is far from perfect. However, this person also appears to have vanished.
So perhaps we are indeed near a top, when all the bears throw in the towel. Or maybe not, this analysis is almost worth what y'all paid to read it - zilch.
Good perspective, TGregg. I'm not sure why everyone feels the need to call a top. It's like, "well the market has gone up for so long and it's overvalued, it's overdue to top out." If you keep trying to call a top, maybe you need to ask yourself "why?" Do you have a bearish bias by nature? Are you mad at yourself for missing out on this bull run? Have you really studied how most bull markets top out?
There are 3 things that I believe are key to the bull continuing -- and so far, they are all intact. Granted, the market is overextended in the short-term and I'm not entering new long positions right now, but I believe there may be more to this bull run.
One thing that there is, though, is what I call major event risk. Because of the excessive optimism and the market being overextended, something like a terrorist attack, major natural disaster, etc. could send the market down significantly.
Nevertheless, right now the trend is up!
There are 3 things that I believe are key to the bull continuing -- and so far, they are all intact. Granted, the market is overextended in the short-term and I'm not entering new long positions right now, but I believe there may be more to this bull run.
One thing that there is, though, is what I call major event risk. Because of the excessive optimism and the market being overextended, something like a terrorist attack, major natural disaster, etc. could send the market down significantly.
Nevertheless, right now the trend is up!
Quote from TGregg:
I submit for your review, an interesting comparison of different times here at EliteTrader. Many, many months ago, the market kept tanking, setting new lows. Well, not brand new, but you know what I mean. And there was this person who went by the nickname of Lundy. Lundy kept trying to call the bottom, kept adding to losers, raising the stakes and never admitting he was wrong. But the market kept sinking.
To make a short story shorter (what is that, a triple pun?
Now we have been going up, and setting new highs. And, we've had a new person who keeps trying to call the top, keeps adding to losers, raising the stakes and never (well, extremely rarely) admitting he is wrong. Interestingly, while Lundy was generally frowned upon, this new person has indeed produced profits and pulled off some amazing turnarounds - so the comparison is far from perfect. However, this person also appears to have vanished.
So perhaps we are indeed near a top, when all the bears throw in the towel. Or maybe not, this analysis is almost worth what y'all paid to read it - zilch.
we have our event. the jobs numbers.
