NDX Signals As Simple As Possible

[gg12]

Step #5

Then I looked at a P/L diagram of a strategy to enter in trend direction with a 1 unit (5 points) trailing stop.

It turned out that it was negativ with -7 unit.

 

[gg12]

Step #7

To find a good system (in hindsight) I looked how I should have got in sync with the NDX the last 10 days.

I.e. after a 2 unit wave the system is profitable in riding the wave.

The better system is to be counter wave oriented and short each wave (expept if the last one was 2 units long).

The total gain of that strategy would have been +12 (7+5) units or 60 (12*5) NDX points.

 

[gg12]

See the 2 unit wave system attached.

It's a swing system with following rules:

Enter only if the last competed wave had a length of 2 units.
Exit on trailing stop base (trailing on 5 point grid).

Profit 5 points

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The scalping system rules:

Enter against the wave if the last completed wave didn't had a length of 2 units.
Take profit on a 1 unit retracement.

Always use stops! Market can make huge runs as seen yesterday!

Profit 12 points

 

[gg12]

Step #8

Checked with real charts.

The swing trade system would have lost power because of opening gaps.

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Remark:
NDX is not a tradable instrument, but Qs and NQ-Futures are. There is a need of very extensive backtesting.

May be someone in this forum can post some results (I don't have the data and the software for that).

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Hope this gave you an idea what I did.
Feedback is always welcome.

 

[MarkBrown]

Quote from gg12:

Step #4

Then I developed a strategy how to enter and exit the waves.

ok here is where the fun begins

1.) setup for a buy the wave has to be below 1 wave and trade up 1 wave to buy

2.) now long wave has to exceed target wave and retrace back to next lower wave to validate a 2 wave move.

3.) please go back and think you are missing a couple of hundred other setup criteria. i will be glad to program it but you have to lay out all the rules - and i mean all the rules.

your probably so focused on the money your going to make you haven't taken the time to think - and think you must.

 

[gg12]

Mark

If you want measure the lenght of a wave on a grid you need to know where it starts. Therefore you need the last wave (which per definition at least has a lenght of 1 grid unit - for NDX in our case it's 5 points).

I have attached a graphics.

Hope that explains that. Let's me know what specific additional informaiton you need for backtesting decribed concept.

 

[MarkBrown]

Quote from gg12:

Mark

If you want measure the lenght of a wave on a grid you need to know where it starts. Therefore you need the last wave (which per definition at least has a lenght of 1 grid unit - for NDX in our case it's 5 points).

I have attached a graphics.

Hope that explains that. Let's me know what specific additional informaiton you need for backtesting decribed concept.

ok this picture clears up "i think" some things.


looks like the system must start with a five point wave. then loooking for two point waves in the "same and or opposite" direction you buy sell again.

 

[gg12]

Mark

I will buy not every wave. That's the secret.

The initial wave can be also of a 1 unit length.
If I have a 5 unit wave that can mean to by or not to by depending on looking back on historical data.

I hope that have fun doing some backtesting.

 

[gg12]

Current signal is UP from 1170 with stop at 1765, trailing up on 5 point grid.

 

[gg12]

Current signal is UP from 1170 with TS at 1795.