In what unit is 0.58? Are they liquid puts on this thing?
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Nbg
- Thread starter m22au
- Start date
In what unit is 0.58? Are they liquid puts on this thing?
Quote from tradingjournals:
In what unit is 0.58? Are they liquid puts on this thing?
To clarify my earlier post,
"NBG made a share-swap offer in early October to buy all of Eurobank, offering 58 new shares for every 100 Eurobank shares."
Therefore, the number of new NBG shares (issued to EUROB shareholders) will be about 320.7 million NBG shares (552.95 million EUROB shares * 0.58).
Regarding the timing of bank recapitalization, here is a secondary source that has some (unverified) detail:
16 October 2012
http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/20...capitalization-to-be-completed-by-april-2013/
Regarding the specifics of how much each bank needs to raise:
"In this context, the Bank of Greece will publish by the end of December 2012 a detailed report on the capital needs of each bank stating the process of recapitalization. By the end of December 2012, the Financial Stability Fund (ESM) will provide the loan-bridge, sufficient funds to increase by 9% Tier I capital of banks."
Regarding the timing of the capital raising:
"It was decided that the process of recapitalization of viable banks should be completed by the end of April 2013 so that the capital adequacy ratios (Core Tier 1) of the banks to be increased by 9%."
There is a link to this article
http://www.tanea.gr/latestnews/article/?aid=4760097
which is available via the Google cache, in Greek.
****
Some discussion regarding these details can be found on the NBG preference share Yahoo messageboard:
http://finance.yahoo.com/mb/NBG-PA/
16 October 2012
http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/20...capitalization-to-be-completed-by-april-2013/
Regarding the specifics of how much each bank needs to raise:
"In this context, the Bank of Greece will publish by the end of December 2012 a detailed report on the capital needs of each bank stating the process of recapitalization. By the end of December 2012, the Financial Stability Fund (ESM) will provide the loan-bridge, sufficient funds to increase by 9% Tier I capital of banks."
Regarding the timing of the capital raising:
"It was decided that the process of recapitalization of viable banks should be completed by the end of April 2013 so that the capital adequacy ratios (Core Tier 1) of the banks to be increased by 9%."
There is a link to this article
http://www.tanea.gr/latestnews/article/?aid=4760097
which is available via the Google cache, in Greek.
****
Some discussion regarding these details can be found on the NBG preference share Yahoo messageboard:
http://finance.yahoo.com/mb/NBG-PA/
Eurogroup statement on the Greece "deal":
Statement from Eurogroup web site:
http://www.eurozone.europa.eu/eurogroup/news?lang=en
http://www.eurozone.europa.eu/media/854890/eurogroup_statement_greece_27_november_2012.pdf
Zerohedge article includes some of the Eurogroup text:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-...-new-greek-deal-full-details-and-live-webcast
****
"The Eurogroup concludes that the necessary elements are now in place for Member States to launch the relevant national procedures required for the approval of the next EFSF disbursement, which amounts to EUR 43.7 bn. EUR 10.6 bn for budgetary financing and EUR 23.8 bn in EFSF bonds earmarked for bank recapitalisation will be paid out in December. The disbursement of the remaining amount will be made in three sub-tranches during the first quarter of 2013, linked to the implementation of the MoU milestones (including the implementation of the agreed tax reform by January) to be agreed by the Troika.
"The Eurogroup expects to be in a position to formally decide on the disbursement by 13 December, subject to the completion of these national procedures and following a review of the outcome of a possible debt buy-back operation by Greece."
Statement from Eurogroup web site:
http://www.eurozone.europa.eu/eurogroup/news?lang=en
http://www.eurozone.europa.eu/media/854890/eurogroup_statement_greece_27_november_2012.pdf
Zerohedge article includes some of the Eurogroup text:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-...-new-greek-deal-full-details-and-live-webcast
****
"The Eurogroup concludes that the necessary elements are now in place for Member States to launch the relevant national procedures required for the approval of the next EFSF disbursement, which amounts to EUR 43.7 bn. EUR 10.6 bn for budgetary financing and EUR 23.8 bn in EFSF bonds earmarked for bank recapitalisation will be paid out in December. The disbursement of the remaining amount will be made in three sub-tranches during the first quarter of 2013, linked to the implementation of the MoU milestones (including the implementation of the agreed tax reform by January) to be agreed by the Troika.
"The Eurogroup expects to be in a position to formally decide on the disbursement by 13 December, subject to the completion of these national procedures and following a review of the outcome of a possible debt buy-back operation by Greece."
"Greece Readies Plan to Buy Back Debt"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324784404578145141812874944.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
"Many questions remain, such as how the bond tender will be structured, whether it will be voluntary and how it will be paid for. But there are already clues that the buybackâwhich must be completed by Dec. 12 and could involve a loan from Europe's temporary bailout facilityâmay offer little upside to Greek bond investors.
"According to a statement issued by euro-zone finance ministers, the bonds would be bought back at a price no higher than where they traded last Friday, which was around an average price of between 28 and 34 euro cents depending on the maturity of the bond."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324784404578145141812874944.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
"Many questions remain, such as how the bond tender will be structured, whether it will be voluntary and how it will be paid for. But there are already clues that the buybackâwhich must be completed by Dec. 12 and could involve a loan from Europe's temporary bailout facilityâmay offer little upside to Greek bond investors.
"According to a statement issued by euro-zone finance ministers, the bonds would be bought back at a price no higher than where they traded last Friday, which was around an average price of between 28 and 34 euro cents depending on the maturity of the bond."
Quote from m22au:
"Greece Readies Plan to Buy Back Debt"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324784404578145141812874944.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
"Many questions remain, such as how the bond tender will be structured, whether it will be voluntary and how it will be paid for. But there are already clues that the buybackâwhich must be completed by Dec. 12 and could involve a loan from Europe's temporary bailout facilityâmay offer little upside to Greek bond investors.
"According to a statement issued by euro-zone finance ministers, the bonds would be bought back at a price no higher than where they traded last Friday, which was around an average price of between 28 and 34 euro cents depending on the maturity of the bond."
How man cents on the euro are the Greek bonds banks marking them to
Quote from Daal:
How man cents on the euro are the Greek bonds banks marking them to
from the article:
"Most Greek banks now carry those bonds at a few pennies below those levels, implying they would see a small profit."
***
As mentioned previously in this thread, the number 1 factor influencing the share price of NBG over the next 12 months will be the price at which the capital raising takes place.
Given the terms announced on 12 November, I expect a price of about 0.96 EUR, or about $1.25 per ADR. This represents a 50% discount of the 50 day MA for ETE shares.
Quote from Daal:
NBG down a lot pre
Nothing concrete as far as I can see.
But
http://www.bankingnews.gr/
suggests that it relates to fear of (complete) nationalization of the banks, and in particular NBG/Eurobank.
Another article provides some analysis regarding possible amounts of capital the banks require.
The amount for NBG/Eurobank is 11.4 billion + 3.8 billion = 15.2 billion EUR for 9% Tier 1, but of this only 10 billion in common stock.
Still, 10 billion EUR is a lot compared to the combined market cap of less than 1.5 billion EUR.