Nbg

Quote from m22au:

Quote from Daal:
m22au,
What do you think are the catalysts that will send this stock up or down over the next months?

Good question. The correlation between NBG and GREK is very strong. So it seems that NBG "investors" are ignoring the capital requirements are just trading it as if it's just like any other Greek company. Similar to FRE and FNM "investors" in July and August 2008 who were under the delusion that those two entities were solvent.

My hunch is that if/when the 31.5 billion EUR Greek government bailout is approved in mid to late November, NBG will rise in line with the Greek stockmarket as a relief rally. If GREK doesn't rally on that news, then it would be quite telling ("the reaction to the news is more important than the news itself").
More...

Clearly I was wrong about a "post-approval rally", at least in terms of a post-Greek government rally. However today's action probably indicates that there won't be a massive rally in NBG and other Greek banks if/when the Troika approves disbursement of the 31.5 billion EUR bailout monies.

We're gradually getting closer to the day when bank recapitalization details are announced.
 
Or maybe we're not much closer after all.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-08/risk-offer
EU MINISTERS TO DELAY GREEK AID CALL FOR WEEKS, OFFICIAL SAYS

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-08/we-arent-kansas-anymore
The Greek government says it will run out of money on (Friday) November 16 and the country has debt payments to be made on (Wednesday) November 21.

***

So we're potentially 8 days away from a (hard) Greek default.

"Eurozone faces brinkmanship on Greece"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ff3fd53c-29c4-11e2-9a46-00144feabdc0.html
 
Bloomberg article with more details:

"Greek Aid Payment Call Won’t Be Made Next Week, EU Official Says"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...won-t-be-made-next-week-eu-official-says.html

"The EU official said Nov. 26 is a possible date for euro- area finance ministers to sign off on the next disbursement of rescue aid to Greece. "

Guardian blog:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/blog/2012/nov/08/eurozone-crisis-live-markets-central-banks
• EU MINISTERS TO DELAY GREEK AID CALL FOR WEEKS, OFFICIAL SAYS
• GREEK AID TRANCHE DECISION DATE SEEN POSSIBLE ON NOV. 26
• EU DECISION ON GREEK AID PAYMENT AWAITING TROIKA REPORT
 
Quote from m22au:

Bloomberg article with more details:

"Greek Aid Payment Call Won’t Be Made Next Week, EU Official Says"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...won-t-be-made-next-week-eu-official-says.html

"The EU official said Nov. 26 is a possible date for euro- area finance ministers to sign off on the next disbursement of rescue aid to Greece. "

Guardian blog:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/blog/2012/nov/08/eurozone-crisis-live-markets-central-banks
• EU MINISTERS TO DELAY GREEK AID CALL FOR WEEKS, OFFICIAL SAYS
• GREEK AID TRANCHE DECISION DATE SEEN POSSIBLE ON NOV. 26
• EU DECISION ON GREEK AID PAYMENT AWAITING TROIKA REPORT
More...

They could perhaps default on their domestic spending(Salaries, payments) but not on their debt and interest payments
I believe even the US did this type of default back in the 90's for like 2 days
 
Some different dates suggested by Kathimerini:

"EU keeps Greece waiting for loan
Tranche will not be approved at Monday’s Eurogroup but likely end of the month, officials say"

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_08/11/2012_469182

"Greece is hoping that a meeting of eurozone finance ministers on (Monday) November 19, or talks between European Union leaders three days later, will lead to officials agreeing to disburse the next bailout tranche of 31.5 billion euros.

"Sources told Kathimerini that Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s aides see these two meetings as the two most likely dates when Greece will finally get the nod from its lenders after several European officials made it clear yesterday that there would be no decision on the disbursement of the loan installment at Monday’s Eurogroup meeting."
 
Quote from Daal:

They could perhaps default on their domestic spending(Salaries, payments) but not on their debt and interest payments
I believe even the US did this type of default back in the 90's for like 2 days
More...

Yes you're correct.

Hopefully this will be resolved by the end of November, as the ekathimerini article above suggests it will be.
 
how many times have we seen this play out where greece is about to blow up and the ecb rides in over the nearest hill w/ a bailout b/c the alternative is too much to handle? the same thing will happen again. the ecb and the rest of europe (the world really) are in for a penny so they're in for a pound.
 
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