Nbg

Good detailed article (in Greek) about a 30-day deadline for implementing reforms imposed by Troika.

http://www.euro2day.gr/news/economy/124/articles/731090/Article.aspx
http://translate.google.com/

By Troika ultimatum for recapitalization

Chr. Kitsiou
Posted: 07:51 - 10/10/12

Ultimatum to the government to complete the necessary institutional framework for recapitalization of banks, within 30 days, sent the troika, seeking to close the issue before the disbursement of the tranche of 31.5 billion euros.

According to reliable information, the troika told the Government that the determination of the terms of recapitalization is one of the 89 prerequisite actions to be disbursed dose.
 
"Steps to next installment"

"Deal on measures this week would leave tight schedule until Nov. 13 Eurogroup meeting"

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_20/10/2012_466778

* hoping to beat a tight deadline that requires Athens to have voted through the measures by the time eurozone finance ministers meet on November 12.
(Monday 12 November)

* It is aiming to have the deal wrapped up by Thursday
(Thursday 25 October)
when the Euro Working Group meets. Eurozone technical officials will prepare an assessment on the Greek package that will be passed to finance ministers when they hold talks, possibly via teleconference, on October 29.
(Monday 29 October)

* Greece will then strive to submit the measures to Parliament and vote on them by November 12, when the Eurogroup will hold its regular meeting.
(Monday 12 November)
The government aims to give Parliament eight to nine days to debate the measures at a committee and plenary session level. This means the bills would have to be submitted to the House by November 3, so they could be voted on by midnight on November 11 at the latest.

****

See also
http://www.europolitics.info/econom...-way-for-eurogroup-sign-off-art344215-29.html
 
NBG Conference call
11 October 2012

"National Bank of Greece's CEO Discusses Announcement of a voluntary offer for all outstanding common registered shares of Eurobank Ergasias S.A. Conference (Transcript) "

Single page view
http://seekingalpha.com/article/918...rgasias-s-a-conference-transcript?part=single

Multi-page view
http://seekingalpha.com/article/918...a-conference-transcript?page=4&p=qanda&l=last

During the Q&A there are quite a few questions and (half-) answers regarding the recapitalization of NBG.
 
Quote from Daal:

m22au,
What do you think are the catalysts that will send this stock up or down over the next months?
More...

Good question. The correlation between NBG and GREK is very strong. So it seems that NBG "investors" are ignoring the capital requirements are just trading it as if it's just like any other Greek company. Similar to FRE and FNM "investors" in July and August 2008 who were under the delusion that those two entities were solvent.

My hunch is that if/when the 31.5 billion EUR Greek government bailout is approved in mid to late November, NBG will rise in line with the Greek stockmarket as a relief rally. If GREK doesn't rally on that news, then it would be quite telling ("the reaction to the news is more important than the news itself").

However given the rise in Greek bank stocks in recent months, any strength would be a good place to sell into. Especially since that after the 31.5 billion EUR is approved, the announcement of capital raisings for Greek banks would only be days or weeks away.

Obviously the outlier is the 31.5 billion EUR not being approved and Greece defaulting in November, but that's unlikely. That scenario and/or other similar scenarios would obviously be a massive negative for NBG.
 
WSJ article:

"Greek Banking Sub-Index Plummets 16% "

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20121029-712383.html

"ATHENS--Greece's banking sub-index slumped 16% Monday, as a senior bank official said that the country's banks will delay announcing their six-month results until the end of November, pending a recapitalization plan for the struggling financial sector. "

"The official added that a bill on the bank recapitalization plan will have to go to parliament before the country's next aid tranche, which is expected to be disbursed by Nov. 15. "
 
Comments about Monday's news from the Greek banks:

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_29/10/2012_467824

"Banks give lukewarm support to recap plans "

Banks were disappointed by the government’s plan for their recapitalization presented to them by Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras on Monday.

Banking sources told Kathimerini that as things stand it will be exceptionally difficult, if not impossible, to attract private investors to take part in the share capital increases.
 
Some important voting days this week and next week:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/976371-the-week-ahead-greece-will-make-or-break-market

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_04/11/2012_468588

Wednesday 7 November
"But Samaras's New Democracy Party and most of the deputies of its coalition Socialist partners are expected to push the [austerity] package through in a slim majority in a vote expected on Wednesday."

Sunday 11 November
"Lawmakers should then approve the 2013 budget in another crucial vote on November 11, leading to the release of 31.5 billion euros in aid funds and putting to rest any talk of Greece exiting the euro, Samaras said."

Monday 12 November

"Greece braced for crucial votes"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9ff2fc20-266e-11e2-9295-00144feabdc0.html

"Mr Samaras and his eurozone partners are hoping to have both elements – the reforms and the revised bailout – in order by a meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels on Monday November 12."
 
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