NBER: U.S. recession officially ended June 2009

[MKTrader]

Quote from EMRGLOBAL:

yes ISM did raise above 50.

But 70% of the GDP is Consumer Spending, not Manufacturing.

Unemployment is holding, yeah right, at 9.6%.

So, yes, Manufacturing is slowly rebounding. But the GDP is not, consumer spending is not and we are still loosing 450k jobs per week.

Cotton, Agi's are rising, CPI is showing slight inflation.

The Stock Market is rallying but many are no longer in it, or they have stop'd contributing.

Wallstreet profits via Private Equity and over all M/A are grinding to a hault.

Housing may have bottom, but not much building in most of the country.

Commerical RE is still at high levels of Empty Space.

BANKS ARE NOT LENDING BUSINSSNESS LOANS on a WIDE RANGE.

and SOCIALIST WANT TO RAISE, opps i mean let the Bush Tax breaks end.

The MONEY is flowing along with the JOBs outa this country.


So, yeah, I believe the RECESSION IS OVER....FUCK NO!

I doubt house prices have bottomed. They're nowhere near historical norms. Either they continue falling or have no net movement for years.

As for GDP, it includes gov't spending. Obviously all the "spendulous" is going to influence it.

What's disturbing (but seldom mentioned) is that private savings/investment continues to go down while gov't spending grows;

http://www.independent.org/blog/index.php?p=7882

 

[S2007S]

Quote from MKTrader:

I doubt house prices have bottomed. They're nowhere near historical norms. Either they continue falling or have no net movement for years.

As for GDP, it includes gov't spending. Obviously all the "spendulous" is going to influence it.

What's disturbing (but seldom mentioned) is that private savings/investment continues to go down while gov't spending grows;

http://www.independent.org/blog/index.php?p=7882

They haven't bottomed, and even if they did its only short term meaning we could easily see a rise in housing prices over the next 18-24 months but thereafter see the next collapse in housing take place. They didn't let the free market take housing prices where they should have gone, there has been to much intervention within the housing market and that will lead to more pressure in housing in years to come. As I said earlier housing prices are still way overvalued by at least 25% in most areas.

GDP is all an illusion, you cannot think there was actual growth over the last 18 months when trillions in stimulus was used, strip out the stimulus and gdp would still be 0%. There is no more organic growth left in this economy, the economy is still too dependent on stimulus and this will be the case for years and years to come.

 

[AKUMATOTENSHI]

Quote from emg:

that means, doomsday begins

False, another interpretation is that the economic engine has a chance to restart, sans the bullshit.

Akuma

 

[S2007S]

July 1981-November 1982: 14 months
July 1990-March 1991: 8 months
March 2001-November 2001: 8 months
December 2007-June 2009: 18 months


Since 1980 there have been only 4 RECESSIONS!

48/360= approx 13% of the time the US is in a recession.


The NBER can yell all they want about the recession officially ending in June 2009 but what they dont comprehend is that stimulus created the magical gdp rise over the last 18 months.

They can say the recession is over but its far from it.

 

[MKTrader]

Quote from AKUMATOTENSHI:

False, another interpretation is that the economic engine has a chance to restart, sans the bullshit.

Akuma

Yeah, like hundreds of millions of stimulus dollars being wasted and going to pork barrel projects, increased taxes supported by ridiculous class warfare demagoguery, etc.

Oh, wait....