Natural Gas

Quote from FrankSlaughtery:

re the poster who said something about the interest in ung (i didn't quote b/c the chart was huge) - there is zero correlation b/w a huge volume increase and the future direction of the price. the huge volume day could just as easily be someone betting against ung (a pretty good bet imho b/c of the way it's structured).

i don't know how many times i've heard people say about a beaten down stock/security/whatever "it's down a lot, it just had a big volume day therefore someone is calling a bottom".

just watch price and don't predict the future. if price stops being in a downtrend (price is above 50 MA, or above 20 day high, whatever trend measure you want to use) then it's ok to enter saying the trend has reversed but not before.
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"Look at the volume at key turning points. It's huge. The only logical way that can happen is if institutions are exiting in one direction and entering in the other, and other institutions are taking the opposite side as part of a hedge in another market (stocks, options, bonds, currencies, and so on). They perceive that their risk-reward ratio is better by buying futures at the high or selling them at the low and offsetting the risk in another market. Nothing else makes sense. You know that the volume is not from small individual traders being squeezed out of shorts and buying at the high. There are plenty of stupid people out there, but if you were to pool all of their buys at the high, it is still small compared to the institutional volume."

-Al Brooks
 
I am long May NG as of Friday with two entries at 1.971 and 1.963 so far. I held out for prices below $2.00 and for the NG report this week to be released. Friday I entered the trades and placed a scale out pt at 2.023 to take a 1/4 partial.

I would like if NG bounced in this price range for a few months. This is one of my active trade markets and I will be trading whatever the NG will give me.
 
Quote from ogarbitrage:

Because there is so much supply, there is really a limit to what kind of supply-based price shock we could experience at Henry Hub.

Most price shocks going forward in NG markets will more than likely originate at basis locations and those will be caused by capacity/logistical constraints across the pipeline infrastructure rather than low supply.
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Yes, right on the money! Opportunity arises when supply curtails/increases at basis points and other points pull/push as a result - very location specific factors are the play. HH futures are going lower - that chart is as ugly as you can get! Hot winter, incredible storage glut, etc... I've been out of the game for awhile but I never imagined sub deuce when i was on the natty desk. Maybe wrong but the seasonailty is working against you as well as hideous storage and supply side numbers.

Cheers to all the shorts!

JO
 
If you feel that nat gas prices will either go lower or stay in a range under $2 for several months out then wouldn't a possible trade be to buy UNG puts? if the price stays low or continues lower (trend is your friend) and roll over yields continue to decrease this ETF's value, then wouldn't you want to be short this ETF?
 
Quote from hoop121:

If you feel that nat gas prices will either go lower or stay in a range under $2 for several months out then wouldn't a possible trade be to buy UNG puts? if the price stays low or continues lower (trend is your friend) and roll over yields continue to decrease this ETF's value, then wouldn't you want to be short this ETF?
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I do directional trades only with no hedge for my system. I am taking my shot here to churn some profits if we range around $2.00 for several weeks. If we trade back into mid two dollar range or higher then I will just hold my remaining position to see if more upside is possible.
 
Quote from RenkoTrades:

I do directional trades only with no hedge for my system. I am taking my shot here to churn some profits if we range around $2.00 for several weeks. If we trade back into mid two dollar range or higher then I will just hold my remaining position to see if more upside is possible.
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Renko,

Who are you buying your contracts through? ICE? NYMEX? NEX?
 
Quote from RenkoTrades:

I am long May NG as of Friday with two entries at 1.971 and 1.963 so far. I held out for prices below $2.00 and for the NG report this week to be released. Friday I entered the trades and placed a scale out pt at 2.023 to take a 1/4 partial.

I would like if NG bounced in this price range for a few months. This is one of my active trade markets and I will be trading whatever the NG will give me.
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$2.023 target filled the other day and I am buying again this morning. Trade cost basis is 1.954 and new 1/4 partial at 2.004 price. I placed next 1/4 pt at 2.124 price.
 
Churn below $2.00 zone for the week stays the norm. Buying NG again this morning and adding pt for 1/5 position at 1.938, next 1/5 position pt at 1.978, next 1/5 position pt at 2.088 price. Cost basis for position is 1.928 currently with hold into next week.
 
Renko...how long have you been trading NG? do you find higher volatility/volume during roll over weeks (next week)? or do funds usually roll over the week prior to expiration? thx
 
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