1-handle means anything w/ a price below $2 Bob.
And sorry, no link. A friend at a French utility passed on the word to me this morning.
And sorry, no link. A friend at a French utility passed on the word to me this morning.
Natural Gas
- Thread starter gdtrader
- Start date
Fixed costs generally run around $2 is so anything below that will be very temporary.
first off, BAC and MER couldn't find their ass w/ two hands and a flashlight so i don't listen to their price targets.
second, as others have correctly said, NO ONE knows how low/high a security will go or how will it will take to get there. if you pull up a 6 month chart of NG you see the def of a steep downtrend. to those calling a bottom you not only are going against the trend (a big prob in and of itself) but due to the inherent nature of the security (and derivs on them) and contango the roll absolutely kills your performance. just compare the perf of ung vs spot ng.
bottom line, nat gas could go much lower. i agree that there is a floor for every commodity but it's a lot lower than some thing - ZERO.
p.s. those fondly remembering the days of NG hitting 15 in the hot summer months should take a mental pic b/c the market has fundamentally changed over the past 5 years. not that you need to analyze fundies to trade b/c you don't but still. the discovery of shale gas has created a permanent glut unless this country starts using a lot more and exporting via lng
second, as others have correctly said, NO ONE knows how low/high a security will go or how will it will take to get there. if you pull up a 6 month chart of NG you see the def of a steep downtrend. to those calling a bottom you not only are going against the trend (a big prob in and of itself) but due to the inherent nature of the security (and derivs on them) and contango the roll absolutely kills your performance. just compare the perf of ung vs spot ng.
bottom line, nat gas could go much lower. i agree that there is a floor for every commodity but it's a lot lower than some thing - ZERO.
p.s. those fondly remembering the days of NG hitting 15 in the hot summer months should take a mental pic b/c the market has fundamentally changed over the past 5 years. not that you need to analyze fundies to trade b/c you don't but still. the discovery of shale gas has created a permanent glut unless this country starts using a lot more and exporting via lng
I wouldn't necesarily trust the banks statements either. There is at least some documentation of big banks advising consumers contrary to their own positions....
Anyways, I keep trying to call the bottom on this. I should probably stop though, it's cost me several thousand... however, once we bubble again, I'm going to put at least 40k into it. If we hit 14 dollars again in the next few years, I'll retire between 24-27.
Anyone know any good tax shelters?
Anyways, I keep trying to call the bottom on this. I should probably stop though, it's cost me several thousand... however, once we bubble again, I'm going to put at least 40k into it. If we hit 14 dollars again in the next few years, I'll retire between 24-27.
Anyone know any good tax shelters?
Might want to cancel that one.... wait for a sign of reversal?
Where did you get your crystal ball and how can I get one?