Natural gas looking like MEME stock!

ogarbitrage said:
I think none of you really understand the gravity of the situation for NG. Two thirds of China's power comes from coal; and coal is tight globally. India was lifting Australian coal out of Chinese ports but China is so desperate that they started allowing domestic firms to take delivery of Aus-origin despite bad CNH/Aus relations. India and China are both now hunting globally for coal and LNG. Propane globally has firmed because any switching that can be done to power plants has been done. TTF is surging because of EU power demand, LNG supply is being pulled east, lack of wind power, lack of electricity exports from the Nordic states (because of less glacial flow), and less gas imported from Russia.

Like another poster said, HH will benefit by way of US LNG export capacity. HH going to 12, 15, 18$/mmbtu in Dec/Jan is not out of the realm of possibility. But yes, of course this will not last - stating the obvious is not hard. The market will collapse sometime in Q1'22.
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I have been in on this trade through TSX nat gas stocks since the Covid crash and starting overweighting a lot November 2020. The only issue with nat gas is the pullbacks are sudden and violent at times even in the best stocks.

I'm not sure that the market will "collapse" it will normalize/lower but at levels the companies will still have great cash flow and balance sheets. In the meantime, I believe most of the firms I trade are unhedged now and this is a cash windfall.
 
the day range has been very good.
it is expected to be very good till the end of the winter season.

The average day range is about 10% since 27 Sept 2021.
this is one of the best futures for day trading.
 
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jyama said:
It's my first post go easy guys.

My theory is gas goes higher til the Russians have the approval from the EU to use the Nord Stream 2 pipline and an China is helping to put pressure on the EU by buying all the supply driving prices higher? Ukraine loses income from transmitting gas to Europe and Russia and China become better buddies. Then the price of nat gas drops after EU approval and China buys less gas.

Any help is appreciated. How do I play the up and down and how do futures contracts affect prices month to month?
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Russia is playing political games with natgas, so same as always. That's the real key here. Yet, Germans are eager to deal with Russians, as long as their ex-politicians get sweet payouts from all projects. EU style corruption.
 
Nine_Ender said:
It's a bad trade you got lucky on news and still under water. You risk a ton to maybe gain a little.
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I think it was a few yrs back I was trading 2x and 3x NG etfs and in the end I was was right on the money. I believe you were chiming in on my posts at that point to. I'll find them and post them.
 
S2007S said:
I think it was a few yrs back I was trading 2x and 3x NG etfs and in the end I was was right on the money. I believe you were chiming in on my posts at that point to. I'll find them and post them.
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In Oil, you bought UWTI and lost 90% of every penny you put into it ( with numerous adds ). Risking a lot to make a little is usually long term -EV. I doubt I commented on NG etfs I only started looking at this area last year.
 
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Nine_Ender said:
In Oil, you bought UWTI and lost 90% of every penny you put into it ( with numerous adds ). Risking a lot to make a little is usually long term -EV. I doubt I commented on NG etfs I only started looking at this area last year.
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I did own UWT yes, but didn't risk huge amounts, I did cost average in, no worries as I don't take on unimaginable risk.


And KOLD is now over 8.00 both my positions in 2 separate accounts are green.
 
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