Natty

Quote from ogarbitrage:

Any of you guys trade otc natty?
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Did- you have to know the CL market- because the out of control funds spread NG/CL/HO and move NG intraday, hence VOl blows up in NG


Funny thing the correlation ng/cl should not be high or enough to trade, but DB and the rest of the analyst promote the spread- maybe why DB blew put in commod' this year
 
Quote from bt116:

I thought LNG only comes here when price gets rediculously high? Why would LNG be on the way from Asia with price in the $5s?
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a lot of LNG supply contracts are long term.. anyway imports at places like lake charles and cove point have dropped like a rock
 
whats the mkt scenario where the u/v/x fly end up at >0.3 like it did in 2006? curious to hear ur thots... agree this mkt sucks but i think there will be more convergence to the historicals as we near settle for these cnts
 
Quote from rbobtrader:

whats the mkt scenario where the u/v/x fly end up at >0.3 like it did in 2006? curious to hear ur thots... agree this mkt sucks but i think there will be more convergence to the historicals as we near settle for these cnts
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No idea, I think that would be as random as todays range !
 
agree.. think im reading too much in the sep leg. its the v/x. the mkt seems to think we'll have plenty of gas in stg come april. not a bad assumption by any means but im just not sure i got the stomach for the bumpy ride ahead
 
Quote from rbobtrader:

agree.. think im reading too much in the sep leg. its the v/x. the mkt seems to think we'll have plenty of gas in stg come april. not a bad assumption by any means but im just not sure i got the stomach for the bumpy ride ahead
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Yes. need a lot of "staying power" in the gas market. It can get run up or down on large paper traders in a hurry since the banks are not providing the liquidity they once did.

Unless we have unusually cold winter, march will tank relative to April IMO. So far winter is not unusual and demand is slack.

When the curve was very very high, many producers hedged and are not so price sensitive, so we will see plenty of gas despite slack demand I think.
 
Quote from rbobtrader:

whats the mkt scenario where the u/v/x fly end up at >0.3 like it did in 2006? curious to hear ur thots... agree this mkt sucks but i think there will be more convergence to the historicals as we near settle for these cnts
More...

the "fly" I assume butterfly-

I always see Vol traders trying to sell holiday and buy "new year"- possibl this is what is happening in this spread ????
 
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