Natty Gas

Thanks PJK,

Does anyone have a link to a good calendar for energy reports? I thought the report came out on Wednesday. How many frickin reports are there? :)

Thanks again.
 
Crude oil and petroleum product inventories are release by both the Dept. of Energy and the American Petroleum Institute (referred to as the API, a private sector think tank basically) on Wednesday at 10:30 AM EST. Both are important, but the DOE numbers tend to hold more weight.

The Energy Information Administartion (EIA, which is really just the statistical arm of the DOE, so in reality both the NG data and the one set of petroleum data come from the same agency, I'm just differentiating them to decipher) releases working natural gas storage data at 10:30 AM on Wednesdays.

I can answer more questions if you have them.
 
If you don't mind me asking PJK, I was wondering where you get the analysts expectations numbers from? I agree the markets bounce after the immediate tank was bullish.

Quote from PJKIII:

The selloff this morning was due to the EIA storage withdrawal coming in well below mkt. expectations, it was not a technical move. The range from analysts was a 165-225 Bcf withdrawl and the number was a disappointing 186 (which leaves us 152 Bcf over last year and 454 Bcf--big block size--over the 5 year average for this period of time---we be swimming in gas). As soon as the number hit the mkt. imploded, losing 40 cents in a matter of minutes. It's interesting to see that the knee jerk was just that with the market moving almost thirty cents higher than the post number release low intraday, before settling back toward a 7.53 close. With artic temps. in the forecast for at least the next two weeks (next week will see temps 20-25 degrees below normal in much of the center of the country), the bullish sentiment in this mkt. remains intact.
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Quote from PJKIII:

The selloff this morning was due to the EIA storage withdrawal coming in well below mkt. expectations, it was not a technical move. The range from analysts was a 165-225 Bcf withdrawl and the number was a disappointing 186 (which leaves us 152 Bcf over last year and 454 Bcf--big block size--over the 5 year average for this period of time---we be swimming in gas). As soon as the number hit the mkt. imploded, losing 40 cents in a matter of minutes. It's interesting to see that the knee jerk was just that with the market moving almost thirty cents higher than the post number release low intraday, before settling back toward a 7.53 close. With artic temps. in the forecast for at least the next two weeks (next week will see temps 20-25 degrees below normal in much of the center of the country), the bullish sentiment in this mkt. remains intact.
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You keep telling yourself that..... If it went up today you would have just said that it was because people are anticipating colder climate and speculating. It would have hit a brick wall regardless of what the # was.
 
Typo, the NG number comes out THURSDAY at 10:30 AM EST, not Wed.

Sorry, just a key stroke error...

Also, if there is a holiday oftentimes the oil numbers will come out on Thursday along with the natty number, and a few times a year (Thanksgiving is one) the natty number is delayed a day as well.
 
Quote from apex82:

You keep telling yourself that..... If it went up today you would have just said that it was because people are anticipating colder climate and speculating. It would have hit a brick wall regardless of what the # was.
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We'll never know, but I predict we break your resistance just above 8 bucks in the next few days, but perhaps not until next week's number. Oh I could be wrong, I realize that, but I do not think the market would have paused at the resistance level if we'd drawn 220 or more. Again, neither one of us will know the truth, but it's fun to go back and forth anyway.
 
Quote from pkts:

If you don't mind me asking PJK, I was wondering where you get the analysts expectations numbers from? I agree the markets bounce after the immediate tank was bullish.
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They're all over the media...Bloomberg, Reuters, GasDaily on Platts (subscription required), NGI from Intelligence Press (again, costs money)...the ICAP site also does an auction where you can place bets on expectations....lots of places I guess. You don't have to pay, just pay attention to the media reports the day before the number. There's a lot of good free content on Platts.com too.
 
Quiet day in natty yesterday, with the volatility in the energy markets being skewed toward the petroleum complex and not NG...very strange, on of the few times I have seen that in 2+ years of watching closely. The fact that we can't seem to break the low 8 dollar level leaves mt to believe that we may be consolidating up here before getting ready to trend lower (as fundamentals would suggest we should). CL also failed to maintain it's gains, and collapsed on itself after almost breaking through 61 dollars.

This will will be interesting though, as extremely cold weather this week across the heat-load markets will be reflected in the inventory numbers due out Wednesday for oil and Thursday for natural gas. If those surprise that could be enough for another rally, but once the bitter cold starts to abate I am quite bearish on this natty market.
 
Quote from PJKIII:

We'll never know, but I predict we break your resistance just above 8 bucks in the next few days, but perhaps not until next week's number. Oh I could be wrong, I realize that, but I do not think the market would have paused at the resistance level if we'd drawn 220 or more. Again, neither one of us will know the truth, but it's fun to go back and forth anyway.
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I gaver you this zone over 2 weeks ago in advance.... If you notice the high tick was 8.015 and my resis came in to the exact tick at 8.019... Luck? I think not.

Here is the aftermath...

http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1344802

to...
 

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