National Polls - Inside the margin...

[gwb-trading]

This isn't sports betting,I don't need to beat the spread.All I want to know from political polls is who is going to win .In this election national and approval polls were perfect and state polls were nearly perfect in predicting the winner.

The odds on your bet in a straight win/loss bet are reflective of the point spread in terms of the financial cost and potential payout.

Generally pollsters in the election have had one of their worst years ever --- but I will get into some of the underlying reasons in a follow-up post on the other pollster thread.

 

[gwb-trading]

Would you trade a system that was correct in the direction 7 out of 8 times; but always wrong as to the extent of the movement?

What is your risk versus reward? What is your fixed costs (commission). Does the system on work once on 7 out of 8 --- or does it work over a period of years historically 7 out of 8 trades providing you with payouts.

 

[userque]

What is your risk versus reward? What is your fixed costs (commission). Does the system on work once on 7 out of 8 --- or does it work over a period of years historically 7 out of 8 trades providing you with payouts.

LOL ... let's just consider it a rhetorical question. It's not that serious, and doesn't deserve a lot of discussion.

I hope I made my point with the post, if not; I'm ok with that. No need for debate.

 

[jem]

He is not a competent politician in any traditional sense.
But... like AOC has shown... social media and the crowd is very disruptive to nomal
politicians.

Trump is a genius at getting coverage.
He also had to be competent to get all those projects in NYC done.
You had to know which politicians to pay off.
Which union guys.
Which mafia guys.
Every single inspector probably needed payoffs.
The guys delivering materials had to be greased.

Casinos... forget about it. (see what I did there)


He had talent for some things, clearly.
Getting bankers to fund projects... amazing.


When I was younger I was part of teams trying to
get bankers to put up the money on a couple of large projects.
We had experienced people...who knew people.
Its very hard to get multi 100 million dollar
real estate deals done.
(we never succeeded in getting a big deal done, but my experience helped file suit against a wall street bank for a small nasdaq firm on a contingency fee and recover 4 million bucks for them when their small deal was stolen.)

And there was always the hedgefund or wallstreet bank
who will swoop in and steal deals from you in the end
(once you laid out your plans or management team.)

To have done what he did took a very interesting
skill set.


I think he has faded hard as he got older.
It could not have been all luck or his dad.

Ok, let me ask you these:

Do you believe Trump is a competent businessman?

Do you believe Trump is a competent politician?

 

[userque]

Appreciate the response. We'll have to revisit this soon after we see if and what Trump may be charged with regarding the allegations that have been in the news; and are tied to your responses.

Based on your responses, and assuming they represent a significant number of citizens, I don't see an easy pathway to unification for our country, unfortunately.

Not surprising as the average age of an empire is 250 years; and the America of 1776 will reach its 250th year in 2026.

He is not a competent politician in any traditional sense.
But... like AOC has shown... social media and the crowd is very disruptive to nomal
politicians.

Trump is a genius at getting coverage.
He also had to be competent to get all those projects in NYC done.
You had to know which politicians to pay off.
Which union guys.
Which mafia guys.
Every single inspector probably needed payoffs.
The guys delivering materials had to be greased.

Casinos... forget about it. (see what I did there)


He had talent for some things, clearly.
Getting bankers to fund projects... amazing.


When I was younger I was part of teams trying to
get bankers to put up the money on a couple of large projects.
We had experienced people...who knew people.
Its very hard to get multi 100 million dollar
real estate deals done.
(we never succeeded in getting a big deal done, but my experience helped file suit against a wall street bank for a small nasdaq firm on a contingency fee and recover 4 million bucks for them when their small deal was stolen.)

And there was always the hedgefund or wallstreet bank
who will swoop in and steal deals from you in the end
(once you laid out your plans or management team.)

To have done what he did took a very interesting
skill set.


I think he has faded hard as he got older.
It could not have been all luck or his dad.

 

[Tony Stark]

The odds on your bet in a straight win/loss bet are reflective of the point spread in terms of the financial cost and potential payout.

Generally pollsters in the election have had one of their worst years ever --- but I will get into some of the underlying reasons in a follow-up post on the other pollster thread.

Polls will be off about 3 points when all the vote is counted.

Going 7 out of 8 on straight win bets where the line is - 3 would be very profitable.

 

[Tony Stark]

.

Generally pollsters in the election have had one of their worst years ever --- .

RCPs battleground aggregate was Biden + 2.3.
RCPs national aggregate was Biden + 7.2.When the vote is counted Biden will win between 4 and 5.Doubt this is the worst year ever.

 

[piezoe]

He is not a competent politician in any traditional sense.
But... like AOC has shown... social media and the crowd is very disruptive to nomal
politicians.

Trump is a genius at getting coverage.
He also had to be competent to get all those projects in NYC done.
You had to know which politicians to pay off.
Which union guys.
Which mafia guys.
Every single inspector probably needed payoffs.
The guys delivering materials had to be greased.

Casinos... forget about it. (see what I did there)


He had talent for some things, clearly.
Getting bankers to fund projects... amazing.


When I was younger I was part of teams trying to
get bankers to put up the money on a couple of large projects.
We had experienced people...who knew people.
Its very hard to get multi 100 million dollar
real estate deals done.
(we never succeeded in getting a big deal done, but my experience helped file suit against a wall street bank for a small nasdaq firm on a contingency fee and recover 4 million bucks for them when their small deal was stolen.)

And there was always the hedgefund or wallstreet bank
who will swoop in and steal deals from you in the end
(once you laid out your plans or management team.)

To have done what he did took a very interesting
skill set.


I think he has faded hard as he got older.
It could not have been all luck or his dad.

That's right. It wasn't luck or direct help from his dad. It was the techniques of bank and tax fraud he learned from his dad. Donald is an amazingly charismatic and believable liar who, according to Michael Cohen, has succeeded in committing bank and tax fraud over and over. He finally ran out of U.S. banks he hadn't already stiffed when he had his BIG Bankruptcy. He left 72 U.S. Banks holding the bag. (That might be some kind of a record!) After that he existed mainly on Russian and Deutsche Bank financing. Donald has been unhelpful in filling in the blanks associated with the timing and details of these transactions. . Curiously, the only Western bank that had an office in Moscow at the time he desperately needed more money, was Deutsche Bank. It was also precisely at a time when Deutsche was was trying to make inroads into U.S. financial markets. So, after no U.S. Banks would loan him money Donald raised money from Deutsche Bank and Russian oligarches -- but in what order? Very little is known by the public of the details of those financial arrangements. But we do know he sold hundreds of Condos in Trump Tower to Russians and Ukranians. We also know he bought other property and quickly sold it to Russians for astounding profits. (Anything in these transactions resembling illegal money laundering must be coincidental.) Yanukovich was the Ukraine President at the time Donald completed some of these transactions.. Manafort was Yanukovych's campaign manager and Konstantin Kilimnik, a Russian Intelligence Agent, was Manafort's, right hand man. Curiously Manafort later popped up as Trump's "unpaid!!!" campaign manager while Manafort continued his partnership with Kilimnik. It has not escaped notice that the same Russian-implemented disinformation tactics that successfully helped propel Viktor Yanukovich into the Ukrainian Presidency were used to help propel the bright orange Donald into the U.S. Presidency. Why are there all these Russian Trump connections? They say follow the money. If only we could I suppose that would answer a lot of questions. I hate innuendo without evidence. So I would prefer to think that Donald is just a bright boy from Queens that innocently, through hard work and diligence found a pile of Russian money.

Unfortunately, in Trump's "business history" I see very little that suggests hard work and real business acumen. Sadly, there is much more that suggests unethical behavior at best and criminal behavior at worst.. If you look up Trump's father Fred, you will discover that in Donald's case the old adage that the apple does not fall far from the tree is probably true.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

That's right. It wasn't luck or direct help from his dad. It was the techniques of bank and tax fraud he learned from his dad. Donald is an amazingly charismatic and believable liar who, according to Michael Cohen, has succeeded in committing bank and tax fraud over and over until he finally ran out of U.S. banks he hadn't already stiffed. When he had his BIG Bankruptcy, he left 72 U.S. Banks holding the bag. (That might be some kind of a record!) Then he moved his financing operations to Deutsche Bank. Curiously,the only Western bank at the time he needed them that had an office in Moscow. It was precisely at a time when Deutsche was was trying to establish a working presence in the U.S. After no other U.S. Bank would loan him money Donald raised money from Deutsche Bank and Russian oligarches. Very little is known by the public of the details of those financial arrangements. But we do know he sold hundreds of Condos in Trump Tower to Russians and Ukranians while Ukraine was under the Russian Thumb. And has bought other property and quicklt sold it to Russians for astounding profits. (I'm certain that anything in these transactions resembling illegal money laundering is coincidental) Yanukovich was the Ukraine President at the time Donald completed many of these transactions.. Manafort was Ukraine President to be Yanukovich's campaign manager and Konstantin Kalimnik, a Russian Intelligence Agent, was Manafort's, right hand man. Curiously Manafort later popped up as Trump's "unpaid!!!" campaign manager while Manafort continued his partnership with Kalimnik. It has not escaped notice that the same Russian-implemented disinformation tactics that successfully helped propel Viktor Yanukovich into the Ukrainian Presidency were used to help propel the bright orange, Donald Trump into the U.S. Presidency.)

In Trump's "business history" I see very little that suggest real business accumen and much more that suggests unethical behavior at best and criminal behavior at worst.. If you look up Trump's father Fred, you will discover that in Trump's case the old adage that the apple does not fall far from the tree is true.

Please stop the garbage posting.

 

[jem]

Nothing you wrote resembles the crime of money laundering in the US. Maybe in Russia...but not here.

That's right. It wasn't luck or direct help from his dad. It was the techniques of bank and tax fraud he learned from his dad. Donald is an amazingly charismatic and believable liar who, according to Michael Cohen, has succeeded in committing bank and tax fraud over and over until he finally ran out of U.S. banks he hadn't already stiffed. When he had his BIG Bankruptcy, he left 72 U.S. Banks holding the bag. (That might be some kind of a record!) Then he moved his financing operations to Deutsche Bank. Curiously,the only Western bank at the time he needed them that had an office in Moscow. It was precisely at a time when Deutsche was was trying to establish a working presence in the U.S. After no other U.S. Bank would loan him money Donald raised money from Deutsche Bank and Russian oligarches. Very little is known by the public of the details of those financial arrangements. But we do know he sold hundreds of Condos in Trump Tower to Russians and Ukranians while Ukraine was under the Russian Thumb. And has bought other property and quicklt sold it to Russians for astounding profits. (I'm certain that anything in these transactions resembling illegal money laundering is coincidental) Yanukovich was the Ukraine President at the time Donald completed many of these transactions.. Manafort was Ukraine President to be Yanukovich's campaign manager and Konstantin Kalimnik, a Russian Intelligence Agent, was Manafort's, right hand man. Curiously Manafort later popped up as Trump's "unpaid!!!" campaign manager while Manafort continued his partnership with Kalimnik. It has not escaped notice that the same Russian-implemented disinformation tactics that successfully helped propel Viktor Yanukovich into the Ukrainian Presidency were used to help propel the bright orange, Donald Trump into the U.S. Presidency.)

In Trump's "business history" I see very little that suggest real business accumen and much more that suggests unethical behavior at best and criminal behavior at worst.. If you look up Trump's father Fred, you will discover that in Trump's case the old adage that the apple does not fall far from the tree is true.