Nate Silver - Republicans 60% change of winning

[jem]

Now that he is free of the New York Times... we will have to see if his work stands the test.


http://www.theblaze.com/stories/201...prediction-thats-likely-to-terrify-democrats/



Former New York Times statistician Nate Silver — who just launched his own website, FiveThirtyEight — has an election forecast that Democrats won’t be happy to hear.

According to Silver, the GOP has a roughly 60 percent chance of winning the necessary six seats to take control of the Senate — and a 30 percent chance of winning control in a big fashion.



“When FiveThirtyEight last issued a U.S. Senate forecast — way back in July — we concluded the race for Senate control was a toss-up,” Silver wrote on his website. “That was a little ahead of the conventional wisdom at the time, which characterized the Democrats as vulnerable but more likely than not to retain the chamber.”

“We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber.”
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“Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber,” he continued. “The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before.”

“Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions,” Silver concluded.

Appearing on ABC’s “This Week,” Silver — who successfully pr



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thanks to James L for catching the typo in the title.

 

[jem]

here is a link to the article on 538.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast/

 

[murray t turtle]

here is a link to the article on 538.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast/

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Jem;
That's a prediction;LOL but he maybe right.

There is a 100% chance-promise the[attempted] church wreckers, God will wreck them.

WOW we see some,, not only butchering babies[abortion] but trying to force all Americas pay for it. 100 % chance God will wreck church wreckers. Only a question of time.Mark Twain said his problem with God; is God doesn't hit enough people with lightening. Well God is full of mercy also

Thanks.

 

[Spike Trader]

Republicans 60% change of winning!

Jem . . .

what if he didn't ''typo'' the title?
what if sneakily meant Republicans have a 60% chance of winning the ''small change'' ?

 

[jem]

if exgopper posts his crappy threads... I will post these. I am not really much of a fan of taking an average of the pollsters. That would only be useful if the pollsters were using solid methodology and templates.

Republicans 60% change of winning!

Jem . . .

what if he didn't ''typo'' the title?
what if sneakily meant Republicans have a 60% chance of winning the ''small change'' ?

 

[jem]

dem disaster on way...

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/04/02/Top-Dem-Pollster-2014-Could-Be-Disaster-for-Party


One of the top Democratic pollsters has seen the numbers, and they do not look good for Democrats heading into the 2014 midterm elections. In fact, the midterm elections could be disastrous for Democrats.
The New York Times reports that turnout for Democrats in November could be "historically" bad and polls have shown that Republicans--especially those aligned with the Tea Party--are more enthusiastic about the upcoming elections than Democrats.
“I’m worried this could be a disaster,” Celinda Lake, the top Democrat pollster, told the New York Times.
The Times notes that the very young voters Obama tried to appeal to with Obamacare have "have abandoned the midterm electorate at more than twice the rate of seniors." In addition, "Hispanics, who favored Mr. Obama by a margin of 44 percentage points, have voted at just two-thirds the rate of whites" while "unmarried women, the source of the Democratic advantage with women, vote less often than their married counterparts."
Aware of this reality, Vice President Joe Biden sent out an email on Sunday warning Democrats that they can lose Congress to more conservative candidates like Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). Republicans need to gain a net of six seats to take back the Senate and likely control Congress. Election forecaster Nate Silver has predicted that Republicans have a 60% chance to take back the Senate. Another predictive model gives Republicans an 80% chance of taking back the Senate.