Nate Silver offers to make $1000 bet over Obama re-election.

G

Grandluxe

Nate Silver offers $1,000 bet on Obama
Posted by Rachel Weiner on November 1, 2012 at 10:57 am

Nate Silver
@fivethirtyeight
.@JoeNBC: If you think it's a toss-up, let's bet. If Obama wins, you donate $1,000 to the American Red Cross. If Romney wins, I do. Deal?

For weeks, critics — MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough among them — have argued that New York Times’ polling analyst Nate Silver gives President Obama too high a chance at winning the election. Today, Silver fires back, asking Scarborough to make a $1,000 bet on the race.

Silver skeptics will likely take the bet as another sign that the statistician’s credibility is riding on an Obama victory. But Silver’s argument is that if Obama and Romney had an equal chance of winning, more people would be betting on the Republican.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...2/11/01/nate-silver-offers-1000-bet-on-obama/

Nate Silver getting very confident
 
Quote from Grandluxe:

Nate Silver offers $1,000 bet on Obama
Posted by Rachel Weiner on November 1, 2012 at 10:57 am

Nate Silver
@fivethirtyeight
.@JoeNBC: If you think it's a toss-up, let's bet. If Obama wins, you donate $1,000 to the American Red Cross. If Romney wins, I do. Deal?

For weeks, critics — MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough among them — have argued that New York Times’ polling analyst Nate Silver gives President Obama too high a chance at winning the election. Today, Silver fires back, asking Scarborough to make a $1,000 bet on the race.

Silver skeptics will likely take the bet as another sign that the statistician’s credibility is riding on an Obama victory. But Silver’s argument is that if Obama and Romney had an equal chance of winning, more people would be betting on the Republican.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...2/11/01/nate-silver-offers-1000-bet-on-obama/

Nate Silver getting very confident
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Pride cometh before the fall.
 
Quote from ChkitOut:

who?
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http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/


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The accuracy of his(Nate Silver) November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 1%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year.

In April 2009, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time.






Of the 37 Senate seats contested in the November 2, 2010 elections, 36 were resolved by November 4, including very close outcomes in several states. Of these 36, the FiveThirtyEight model had correctly predicted the winner in 34.





In final vote tallys as of December 10, 2010, the Republicans had a net gain of 63 seats in the House, 8 more than the total predicted on election eve though still within the reported confidence interval




Of the 37 gubernatorial races, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the winner of 36. Only in Illinois, in which the Democratic candidate Pat Quinn defeated the Republican Bill Brady 46.6% to 46.1%, was the FiveThirtyEight prediction wrong.
 
I thought he was a bookie/gambler. He says the the odds are 74% or something like that. He should be willing to make an odds on bet if he had any faith in his service. I guess he doesn't believe it either.
 
its all liberal bullshit until we see what is 2010 record was like 1 year out. 9 months out 6 months 3 months etc.

I read he was one of the last guys to get on the rep bandwagon in 2010 and his predictions were atrocious before being one the last guys to switch.
 
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