Nat Spreads

For "gas" traders everywhere-

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Quote from PAPA ROACH:

For "gas" traders everywhere-

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lol...
 
Today, I initiated a bit of +Z/-F at .38, initially targeting the .30 area for a quick .08 profit. We have been warm with nothing but warm in the forecasts. Cash has been weak as it should, we are very well supplied. However, I am seeing signs of some stealthy cold air coming down for a week or so that will likely give us a short term little tightening.

Good luck
 
In summary, my current position holdings in spreads:

+Z/-F at -.38 (short term)

-F/+G at -.072 (short to intermediate term)

+H/-J at avg. of .079 (long term)

-V/+X at -.35 (long term)
 
Added more +Z/-F at -.36 this morning. Seeing a pattern shift to a colder look coming for the end of the month into early Dec, in the true realm of things, considering storage and all, it isn't fundamentally bullish, however, it is a trading point and we have been down hard over the last month (from 6.00 to 4.28) without a correction.

The balance of the month hub swap traded as wide as -1.505 yesterday, it has SCREAMED in to -.91 last. This is the swap that sets each day off of cash trading at the henry hub. -.91 means that it is trading at a price that is 91 cents discount to the Dec nymex.
 
Quote from PAPA ROACH:

took profit on half of my +Z/-F at .345. Still like it to come in, but I had a nice size position on, so still riding a half position.
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That spread is all over the place today! Up trend seems to have finally taken hold a bit. You think there was a big short cover this am?
 
Quote from bt116:

That spread is all over the place today! Up trend seems to have finally taken hold a bit. You think there was a big short cover this am?
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Hard to say, but yes there has been quite a bit of volatility in that spread over the last few days. I think you are seeing bulls and bears fight over the 11-15 day forecast showing cold coming in for at least the first part of December, which should tighten cash up a bit, hence the spread coming in. My two-cents anyway.
 
Quote from bt116:

Did you take your whole Z/F/G fly off or just the Z/F part?
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Just the Z/F part. at this point I am treating them as seperate spreads rather than a fly, all in my prognostication of weather and how cash is going to act between the months.
 
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