Nat Spreads
- Thread starter PAPA ROACH
- Start date
I have put on my first of several pieces of -V/+X of 2010, at .35. This is the same spread/diff year that expired a little over a week ago and went as wide as 1.25.
I believe we will have a similiar situation of over-supply this coming summer injection cycle and this spread will trade out much wider than the current -.35 it is at.
There is alot of latent production being held back/uncompleted that WILL come online in the coming weeks/months as producers can sell the curve at/near $6. I am alos in the camp of another economical dip next year that will keep demand abated. The wildcard here in my opinion is getting a hot summer, but we have a ton of time before then, plus, a large carryout this winter will nearly negate a warm summer.
I believe we will have a similiar situation of over-supply this coming summer injection cycle and this spread will trade out much wider than the current -.35 it is at.
There is alot of latent production being held back/uncompleted that WILL come online in the coming weeks/months as producers can sell the curve at/near $6. I am alos in the camp of another economical dip next year that will keep demand abated. The wildcard here in my opinion is getting a hot summer, but we have a ton of time before then, plus, a large carryout this winter will nearly negate a warm summer.
If anyone has an estimate of the expected injection for the next report this week please post it. You would think that the big cold front the last several days would be have a big impact on the number unless some producers decided to up production already. There was a news item on Shell increasing production, fwiw. Thanks.
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/25654/Shell+to+Raise+Natural+Gas+Volume++-+Analyst+Blog
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/25654/Shell+to+Raise+Natural+Gas+Volume++-+Analyst+Blog
Papa...looks like someone decided to grow a pair and got short nov 09. whats ur take on this situation? I still say we top 3.8tcf before the end of november. I also just read a report saying we might be over-supplied next November as well.
Yeah, the high storage situation is real, but...........
with the dollar getting trashed and all the talk of the dollar getting trashed, there is quite a bit of money chasing what is considered cheap, in this case natty, to the masses who really do not trade fundamentals but have alot of liquidity at the fingertips. I believe that is one factor that drove the market up over the last month.
Where we go from here is really difficult as fundamentals remain weak yet with another round of "chasing the cheapest commods on the board", we could yet again have another strong leg up.
Ha! I haven't tamed squat, just have to play within the bounds set by the boss, if only I could really trade whatever I wanted. I would like to be at a fund with a mandate to just make money and a blank canvas, would be in and out quite a bit more like you.
Man, I am slacking hard. Forgot to post a good spread that i put on a few days ago, I sold Jan 10/bot Feb 10 at .072, looking for it to widen out a bit from there. I have my gtc order working at .222 to take profit (.15). Pattern of too much gas/not enough winter prevails for now.