Nat Spreads

Quote from dsparks:

Papa and others, do you believe its at all possible to day, swing trade NG directionally? I read your reply about it running you over, but on days like this when its clearly trending... Also with a bullish overall thesis, reduced rig counts, storm season, how about some swing plays? And if so what type of cash on hand would you suggest for each contract bought? Thanks.
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It is very possible. I do directionally trade quite a bit, but smaller volumes, my wood is in the spreads and options.

The problem for most is natty has volatility like no other. Too many guys open a 5 or 10K trading account and try to trade natty directionally, sometimes with several contracts. They get blown up 99% of the time. You need to be very well funded, and dial down the leverage of directional bets somewhat.
 
Quote from CET:

I have asked this before, but never got a answer. I believe someone posted Platts has the estimates, but I don't know if you have to subscribe/pay to get the estimates. Maybe someone will chime in.
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I get all mine from mostly subscription based sites and through market contacts. Estimates for this weeks report are +70/+75ish.
 
I legged out of half of my -Q/+U today at an avg of .1786, for a profit of a whopping .0476. Tomorrow is expiry and there is no definitive dircetion to this dead spread, (it came in a little today). Likely will be legging out of the balance tomorrow sometime, this one I will not take into the cash market; I will be on vacation for the first 2 weeks of august and don't want to leave in on someone elses time to manage for me.
 
Quote from CET:

I have asked this before, but never got a answer. I believe someone posted Platts has the estimates, but I don't know if you have to subscribe/pay to get the estimates. Maybe someone will chime in.
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bloomberg usually has an article out the day before citing expectations. tradethenews.com posts the expectations after the number comes out. Bentek's website usually has something..

Regardless, the move after the number is so unpredictable the only 'safe' bet is to not trade anytime 2-3 hrs before or after the report.
 
Quote from day4night:

PAPA what about the widow maker (+H/-J)?
Vacation? How we gonna spread the natty w/out you?!?
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That is a spread that will take a little time to develop, I will have GTC scale down buy orders in while I am away. Working .045, .025 and .005.
 
Successfully legged out of the last half of my -Q/+U at an avg of .1843 for a .053 profit. Aside from needing to delta hedge some option fences I have on, I am now in vacation mode!

Good luck guys.
 
Have a good vacation PAPA. Thanks for the education in Natural spreads. I'm not in any (still learning) but am watching. Look forward to your return.
 
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