Starting to ligtly scale in to my next Position
-Q/+U at .115
-Q/+U at .115
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Nat Spreads
- Thread starter PAPA ROACH
- Start date
Quote from PAPA ROACH:
I forgot to post on Friday, I added to my +N/-Q position, put it on at .225. Am working another piece at .225 today, not sure if I will get that now, may have to go in at .20ish.
Still like this trade to .10 at some point.
Just closed out this piece at .139, taking .086 to the bank. Still wearing a majority of my position in this and looking for further tightening.
regardeing the earlier -V/+X trade, my daily CERA news email/spam just came out with further factoids not inconsistent with forced price lowering in V...
NORTH AMERICAN STORAGE CAPACITY BOOM STARTS TO SLIP
IHS CERA estimates total North American working storage capacity at the end of 2008 to be 4,630 billion cubic feet (Bcf), an increase of 88 Bcf during 2008. The backlog of storage projects remains robust and now stands at 916 Bcf, which is down slightly from last year's backlog of 939 Bcf but still high compared to the 2007 level of 729 Bcf. The boom in gas storage development that began in 2006 is starting to slip as projects are taking longer to complete. Of projects originally expected to be completed in 2007, only 68 percent of capacity was completed in 2007, dropping to 57 percent for 2008. Storage projects scheduled for completion in 2009 are now estimated at 188 Bcf, compared with last year's estimate for 2009 of 306 Bcf. The slippage in completing storage projects has the following implications:
* IHS CERA estimates that no more than 4,760 Bcf of working storage capacity will be available for this injection season. Given current North American storage inventory levels, there is a real risk that storage will not be able to accommodate all of the gas available for injection, which could lead to a drop in gas prices in September and October to the levels required for gas to displace coal-fired generation.
* The slippage in construction schedules suggests that developers may have gotten ahead of the growth in demand for storage.
NORTH AMERICAN STORAGE CAPACITY BOOM STARTS TO SLIP
IHS CERA estimates total North American working storage capacity at the end of 2008 to be 4,630 billion cubic feet (Bcf), an increase of 88 Bcf during 2008. The backlog of storage projects remains robust and now stands at 916 Bcf, which is down slightly from last year's backlog of 939 Bcf but still high compared to the 2007 level of 729 Bcf. The boom in gas storage development that began in 2006 is starting to slip as projects are taking longer to complete. Of projects originally expected to be completed in 2007, only 68 percent of capacity was completed in 2007, dropping to 57 percent for 2008. Storage projects scheduled for completion in 2009 are now estimated at 188 Bcf, compared with last year's estimate for 2009 of 306 Bcf. The slippage in completing storage projects has the following implications:
* IHS CERA estimates that no more than 4,760 Bcf of working storage capacity will be available for this injection season. Given current North American storage inventory levels, there is a real risk that storage will not be able to accommodate all of the gas available for injection, which could lead to a drop in gas prices in September and October to the levels required for gas to displace coal-fired generation.
* The slippage in construction schedules suggests that developers may have gotten ahead of the growth in demand for storage.
Quote from PAPA ROACH:
Starting to ligtly scale in to my next Position
-Q/+U at .115
Do you expect Q do drop faster than U, or is there somthing that makes you think U might rise more than Q?
Trading the divergence of approaching months seems gutsy to me... For some reason I put it in the same category as betting on the divergence of Nymex and Physi as settle date nears. I'll get over it though. -V/+X was aweseome.
I can't speak for Roach but I look at these front month bullspreads as a way to front run all the large specs rolling positions, it has worked well nearly every month this year except for j/k.
Quote from texrex2002:
Do you expect Q do drop faster than U, or is there somthing that makes you think U might rise more than Q?
Trading the divergence of approaching months seems gutsy to me... For some reason I put it in the same category as betting on the divergence of Nymex and Physi as settle date nears. I'll get over it though. -V/+X was aweseome.
This is scaling in to front run next months Goldman and UNG roll. They will be selling Q/buying U next month. I expect this spread to widen out past .20 by the roll, and with storage filling quickly, maybe even approach .30!!! (hopefully). Either way, I will be acquiring this position over the coming days.
In their Nat Gas update from yesterday, GS initiates an OCT +CL/-NG spread
Rather surprised by this, given that the spread is only 50c off its highs - at $7.80/mmbtu - high was $8.30 two weeks ago.
I love being short Oct NG, just don't know why you would potentially sully it up by spreading it against Oct CL near the spread's wides.
Thoughts?
Rather surprised by this, given that the spread is only 50c off its highs - at $7.80/mmbtu - high was $8.30 two weeks ago.
I love being short Oct NG, just don't know why you would potentially sully it up by spreading it against Oct CL near the spread's wides.
Thoughts?
Quote from 5koverlibor:
In their Nat Gas update from yesterday, GS initiates an OCT +CL/-NG spread.
...
I love being short Oct NG, just don't know why you would potentially sully it up by spreading it against Oct CL near the spread's wides.
Thoughts?
I guess if you think CL's going to $85 then you're buying on a dip...
If I can ask, where did you get the Goldman gas update? I mean, can it be found online?