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Nat Gas Mini
- Thread starter nighttripper
- Start date
Quote from scriabinop23:
use common sense. If price is up and buying pressure is high, and open interest closes dramatically, then likely its short covering.
If open interest decreases, then both existing shorts and existing longs are closing positions ... short covering AND profit taking.
Quote from scriabinop23:
use common sense. If price is up and buying pressure is high, and open interest closes dramatically, then likely its short covering.
Even assuming you're right, it doesn't follow that this move is, for some reason, unsustainable. It doesn't support your bear case whatsoever.
Doesn't open interest always significantly decline when delivery gets near? Nov contracts stop trading very soon, correct? Since very few futures contracts actually get delivered, it seems normal that the open interest would decline quite a bit through the end of the week.
I'm still at a loss (as I was last week)...
Why is gas up again today? Any fundamental reasons like weather or pipeline explosions? Or was it suddenly time to recouple to oil?
Looking at all NOAA forecasts and they have been milding down. NOAA forecasts Nov to be above average warmth this month. Even the daily and short term forecasts are becoming more benign.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/
On the other hand, accuweather...
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp
So has the nat gas market completely discounted NOAA and bought everything from accuweather?
Why is gas up again today? Any fundamental reasons like weather or pipeline explosions? Or was it suddenly time to recouple to oil?
Looking at all NOAA forecasts and they have been milding down. NOAA forecasts Nov to be above average warmth this month. Even the daily and short term forecasts are becoming more benign.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/
On the other hand, accuweather...
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp
So has the nat gas market completely discounted NOAA and bought everything from accuweather?
No one I know really pays attention to NOAA's long-term forecasts.
Also, I really don't think much of the oil/natgas relationship. The correlation is not really dependable.
Also, I really don't think much of the oil/natgas relationship. The correlation is not really dependable.
Who the fuck knows? What drives any buying in any market? We'll probably find out eventually.