Nat Gas Mini
- Thread starter nighttripper
- Start date
Globex Nymex is down. It is unclear when it will reopen.
At these price levels (7.25) are any of you still bullish on the November contract?
Arguments for continued upside:
1) cold weather
2) short covering
3) recent cash price support
4) continued trend buying up.
Arguments for selloff:
1) many nat. gas storage fields are full or on the verge of brimming over. some storage operators are sending orders to cut gas flow to fields.
2) some forecasts (NOAA for example) for for a milder november across most of the country than typical years.
3) Just 1 week ago, we were in the 5.60 range and weather forecasts ,for november have -not- substantially changed since 1 week ago.
4) if there was heavy fund buying on November this past week, I would assume most of these positions need to close to take profits (since they don't actually take delivery). Conversely, if there -was- heavy short covering last week and few shorts remained, then there would also be less buying pressure left as well. Open interest as of this friday was 56000 contracts. 1 week before was 78000. That to me suggests quite a bit of short covering versus solely new bullish market entries.
By the way, I have a question for some of you more experienced guys: do the big hedge fund players have requirement to close their positions (to avoid delivery) 3 days before closing on NG? Or is this a broker dependent restriction? Anyone know of brokers that allow carrying a physical contract to the last minute or day to the non-consumer trader?
Arguments for continued upside:
1) cold weather
2) short covering
3) recent cash price support
4) continued trend buying up.
Arguments for selloff:
1) many nat. gas storage fields are full or on the verge of brimming over. some storage operators are sending orders to cut gas flow to fields.
2) some forecasts (NOAA for example) for for a milder november across most of the country than typical years.
3) Just 1 week ago, we were in the 5.60 range and weather forecasts ,for november have -not- substantially changed since 1 week ago.
4) if there was heavy fund buying on November this past week, I would assume most of these positions need to close to take profits (since they don't actually take delivery). Conversely, if there -was- heavy short covering last week and few shorts remained, then there would also be less buying pressure left as well. Open interest as of this friday was 56000 contracts. 1 week before was 78000. That to me suggests quite a bit of short covering versus solely new bullish market entries.
By the way, I have a question for some of you more experienced guys: do the big hedge fund players have requirement to close their positions (to avoid delivery) 3 days before closing on NG? Or is this a broker dependent restriction? Anyone know of brokers that allow carrying a physical contract to the last minute or day to the non-consumer trader?
It's getting a little late for the November, but I am keeping an eye on the December. I am neither bullish nor bearish but will follow where ng breaks out (not that I always follow breakouts).
Not being able to get out of a Natgas position, a major nightmare !
How is the volume of Natgas at ICE, and how is the correlation to HenryHub , since ICE contracts are based on UKNatgas ? Thanks !