not sure. looked like that.
but we truly do need some cool weather to get us out of this storage predicament.
otherwise you'll see producers shutting in until revenue streams are high enough to offset this.
Nat Gas Mini
- Thread starter nighttripper
- Start date
not sure. looked like that.
but we truly do need some cool weather to get us out of this storage predicament.
otherwise you'll see producers shutting in until revenue streams are high enough to offset this.
Stoking season is over now. inventories should be downhill from about here until april.
other points incluse COT, weather, charts, contango.
If I'm wrong on this trade, so be it. Somebody has to be on the other side of a good trade, right ? Anyway, doing fine so far and have solid risk management.
no, that this mkt is unpredictable and very dangerous since even professionals got hurt. i personally wouldnt touch the futs but rather look at companies. still, it may have more room to go down like oil. if u can stomach those wild swings go for it but beware too many people lost their shirts tradin' this stuff.
Quote from ParisJOM:
"Since even professionals got hurt"
1) You think professionals have some superpower that makes them superior ?
2) I am in the fund industry myself (not that it has any bearing whatsoever on the quality of my decisions. I've seen alot of complete morons at institutional trading desks)
no but they got access to info u dont have and have plenty of money to average. listen, do as u wish, i just think it may be wiser to invest in companies. that's my view.
its all the same stuff -- you do your homework, have controlled money management, and any of this stuff is equally tradeable.
Its all fair game to opportunity, market manipulation, etc. Big players may have the power to move markets and know inside info, but at the same time, they are often powerless to get out in time when things go against.
And remember, trading natural gas and many other commodities is as direct a proxy to the weather one can think of. That explains some of the wildness. And guess what - the weather can change on a dime and leave even the most researched and funded player on the wrong side. If you ignore the weather too much, or place too much weight on potentially forecasts (as both Amaranth and Mother Rock did), then you take on even more risk. I do tend to think nat. gas trades perhaps need a little more babysitting than buying S&P mutual funds. You have to be able to react - and because of this, I think perhaps the nat. gas market is maybe more well suited to the small but well capitalized player. Is there room for multi billion dollar positions in natural gas? Perhaps not.. The market may not have enough liquidity to absorb them either way.
But despite this, everything is a proxy to the weather when you think about it - just a few more degrees seperated.
ie oversimplified, but makes my point clear:
a. energy stocks = commodity passthrough = weather sensitive
b. tech and consumer stocks = react positively when energy gets cheaper (weather is milder)
c. insurance industry = weather sensitive (natural disasters included as weather)
d. bond market = reactionary to inflationary and currency pressures, caused by amongst many things primarily: high or very low commodity prices (affected by weather)
There you have it, a crude treatise on economics: weather, supply, and demand - the three cornerstones of most markets.
The only thing different about nat. gas is volatility. But it still has a general range - so if you size your positions properly (conservatively), it can be a great market to attempt to profit.
nikkei usd futures scare the hell of out me, so its all relative.
fair enough, nikkei scares the hell outta me too overnite but intraday is tradable.....wish u luck with u bets.
Quote from scriabinop23:
its all the same stuff -- you do your homework, have controlled money management, and any of this stuff is equally tradeable.
Its all fair game to opportunity, market manipulation, etc. Big players may have the power to move markets and know inside info, but at the same time, they are often powerless to get out in time when things go against.
And remember, trading natural gas and many other commodities is as direct a proxy to the weather one can think of. That explains some of the wildness. And guess what - the weather can change on a dime and leave even the most researched and funded player on the wrong side. If you ignore the weather too much, or place too much weight on potentially forecasts (as both Amaranth and Mother Rock did), then you take on even more risk. I do tend to think nat. gas trades perhaps need a little more babysitting than buying S&P mutual funds. You have to be able to react - and because of this, I think perhaps the nat. gas market is maybe more well suited to the small but well capitalized player. Is there room for multi billion dollar positions in natural gas? Perhaps not.. The market may not have enough liquidity to absorb them either way.
But despite this, everything is a proxy to the weather when you think about it - just a few more degrees seperated.
ie oversimplified, but makes my point clear:
a. energy stocks = commodity passthrough = weather sensitive
b. tech and consumer stocks = react positively when energy gets cheaper (weather is milder)
c. insurance industry = weather sensitive (natural disasters included as weather)
d. bond market = reactionary to inflationary and currency pressures, caused by amongst many things primarily: high or very low commodity prices (affected by weather)
There you have it, a crude treatise on economics: weather, supply, and demand - the three cornerstones of most markets.
The only thing different about nat. gas is volatility. But it still has a general range - so if you size your positions properly (conservatively), it can be a great market to attempt to profit.
nikkei usd futures scare the hell of out me, so its all relative.