Nasty divergence in NQ

Quote from demonet:

... What is happening here? Who might be selling and why are they selling at so far below bid? Is this a warning I could take note of if I see this again that there might be an agressive sell-off forthcoming?...

I would appreciate any answers db or electron or whomever might give me...please be kind.
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Quote from OldTrader:

First, those times you mention were bad ticks on the ESignal quote system. Those trades did not actually take place. I use ESignal, so the quotes were quite confusing. However, I also watch the market depth window provided by IB for the ES. This did not show the erroneous quotes.....

I was going to offer my smoke signal theory but then I read Oldtrader post so those bad ticks really mean nothing, still I already made a beatiful chart this is all I can give :)
 

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Quote from demonet:


I would appreciate any answers db or whomever might give me...please be kind.

I'm afraid you're going to be disappointed. I don't know what indicators you use or how you use them, so I can't be of any help there. I don't pay any attention to T&S, so "odd" price action would have no influence on me. Nor do I pay any attention to ARMS or TRIN, much less why certain activities are taking place or who is responsible.

The first question I'd ask, therefore, knowing nothing of your strategy, is what the outcome would have been if you had not allowed the psychological issues to interfere. If the outcome would have been satisfactory, then you have at least a partial answer and a partial fix.

However, if the outcome would have been unsatisfactory regardless of whether or not you allowed the psychological issues to gain the upper hand, then you need to talk to somebody who knows what your strategy is. If you got it from Hershey, then his MSN group is the more likely place.

On the other hand, if you're not satisfied with the strategy either, then all sorts of possibilities present themselves. I, for one, play divergences, and yesterday was not the easiest day to do so, but the divergences were there, and playable (I'm sure there were other strategies to play as well, but I don't follow more than two or three strategies simultaneously, so I can't be of any help there, unless you want to adopt a divergence strategy).

I could give you a bunch of bumper-sticker advice, as with stops or price targets or whatever, but none of that would address any of the central issues. If you think about the three questions I've posed, you'll at least have a beginning.
 
Yesterday's morning action looked like some beta-chasers were just piling into SMH and BBH -- imagine if these ETF's were popular during the late 90's!
 
Quote from NihabaAshi:

dbphoenix, is absolutely correct and many traders really should sit down and try to understand the difference between the MACD Histogram and the MACD Signal Lines when applying them to divergence trade signals...Long or Short...

There's a huge difference in using the MACD histogram for divergence signals all by itself (not recommended)...

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=405272

in comparison to using the MACD Signal Lines (better chance at a successful trade than via the MACD Histogram) if using such all by itself with no other confirmations.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=405288

NQ was in a very strong uptrend ever since about 0939am est until 1321pm est.

Very tough trading to try and apply a MACD Histogram bearish divergence in such a trend...waiting for a bearish divergence in the MACD Signal Lines would have increase the odds for a successful outcome in comparison to the MACD Histogram...

based on using them all by themselves.

As for confirmations to the MACD if your into indicators...

try looking for Stochastic being overbought when a bearish divergence appears within MACD Signal Lines...

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=18091&u=intradaystrategies&a=Trade Analysis 201&id=433

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=18092&u=intradaystrategies&a=Trade Analysis 201&id=433

Try anything except for using the MACD Histogram all by itself...tough to make consistent profits that way.

Note: The above application of the Stochastic was mentioned to me by an online trading pal in a chat room...

The theory is to apply it only on a strong trend days which is confirmed by the MACD Signal Lines rising strongly upwards until they begin showing signs of exhaustion when they begin declining.

jrs3, your obviously into intraday Japanese Candlesticks via another thread you recently started...

I recommend you combined candlestick analysis as a confirmation tool if your going to use MACD Histogram or MACD Signal Lines in divergence trade setups...

to increase your odds for success instead of concentrating on MACD Histogram all by itself which in my opinion is not a good indicator for divergence signals on a trend day...

As dp mentioned...use a trend indicator for trend days.

Have a nice weekend all and trading was good this week...

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=26678&perpage=1&pagenumber=7

NihabaAshi

I added the stochastic over the weekend based on your reply to this thread, and found a similar set up today as the one you outlined in your charts.

I'm not sure if this was a textbook set up (if there is such a thing) like the example you posted as the price uptrend was not quite as pronounced, but nonetheless I think it is a good example of how contributors such as yourself make ET a worthwhile place to visit!

Thanks
 

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Quote from dbphoenix:

Depends on the indicator. The histogram is an oscillator. Therefore, you can't expect reliable signals once the vehicle begins trending.

Note here, for example, that the MACD is "roping", and the histogram is fluctuating around zero, even though the NQ continues to rise. Therefore, you also have to look at S/R and volume, at the least. Otherwise, you'll end up repeatedly trying to trade counter-trend.

And, yes, trading reversals entails trading counter-trend. But you'll require signals other than just the histogram.

dbphoenix, i agree with most of your points above, except that macd hist is not an oscillator in my understading. an osc should be oscillating ..eheh.. between 2 constant values, like stos swing back and forth between 0 and 100, cci between -200 to 200, etc... macd hist was fluctuating because macd lines are roping, that's all...

anyway it's just semantic, i'm bored here so just picking on ppl.. :D
 
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