Nassim Taleb?

[In2Deep]

What I got from Black Swan is that short term trading is a losing strategy over time and the only way to make consistent gains is with options--one of the best ways if not the single best way to profit from randomness.

 

[syswizard]

Quote from scherlok:

This is one of the dumbest logic I've ever encountered.

Why ?

 

[syswizard]

Quote from scherlok:

This is one of the dumbest logic I've ever encountered.

Better go back to grammar school scherlok....and maybe revisit Logic 101 as well.

 

[trefoil]

Taleb doesn't owe anyone anything. When I first read The Black Swan I didn't realize it had been written before the crisis. It certainly doesn't read like a book that was written prior to the late unpleasantness, but it was.
That's really all you need to know. The rest is just carping bullshit from second rate fools who wish they knew what he did when he knew it.

 

[psytrade]

Trefoil, I agree. But the people who criticize Taleb obviously must trade in the manner that he is so critical of....They aren't just "jealous", they are probably riding the ticking time bomb each day.

 

[trefoil]

Quote from psytrade:

Trefoil, I agree. But the people who criticize Taleb obviously must trade in the manner that he is so critical of....They aren't just "jealous", they are probably riding the ticking time bomb each day.

Yep. I did try shorting gamma for a while, but realized it was just raising my blood pressure without doing anything constructive.
And the argument he makes is really all about basic probabilities when it comes to the strategy he used to follow. People get fooled by collecting the premium up front though.

 

[DeeDeeTwo]

Quote from syswizard:

Ask him what kind of positions he puts on.
Is he short premium a la Vic Niederhoffer ?
If that's the case, then he's saying one thing and doing another.
If he was so confident about his theory, he'd constantly be buying out-of-the-money puts.
I'll bet he doesn't do this.
Why ? It's a losing strategy.
Vic had a winning strategy, but he got greedy and complacent and didn't offset his short positions to cap his max loss.

This.

 

[syswizard]

Quote from DeeDeeTwo:

This.

Huh ????

Is the local gentry degrading beyond belief or what am I missing here ?
Many people on this forum apparently have basic communication skills lacking.
How do they expect to trade well ?

 

[syswizard]

Quote from trefoil:

People get fooled by collecting the premium up front though.

What exactly do you mean ?
(once again guys, let's improve our communication skills here ! Lots of cryptic BS and inuendo in this thread)

 

[TD80]

This may all sound like philosophical BS to most of you (perhaps... 95% of you).

Taleb is just relating what a wise man already knows: You can't be certain of anything. I mean anything.

Certainty is particularly dangerous as it relates to human constructs.

Is the grass going to be green and sky going to be blue 30 seconds from now? I have no damn idea. I can speak to the (assumed) odds based on past experience and empirical data, but I cannot be certain.

Review the work of Karl Popper for a real ride on this topic.

Taleb is many things which you may find offensive, but I can assure you, he is no fool.

I would be delighted to have this sort of banter with a man of his intellect over coffee, I don't care how smug and arrogant he might come off to some of you