NassimNicholasTaleb @nntaleb 13h13 hours agoBest training ever for rigor & critical reasoning is...TRADING. You can ONLY survive long term by going against wrong CONSENSUS by experts
Nassim Taleb: "Who got burried?"
- Thread starter qxr1011
- Start date
NassimNicholasTaleb @nntaleb 13h13 hours agoBest training ever for rigor & critical reasoning is...TRADING. You can ONLY survive long term by going against wrong CONSENSUS by experts
Simply just genius...
Or going WITH the consensus, when it is right. Of course the trick is to know when it is right and when it isn't.
Taleb's next tweet is goint to be: The way to long term survival is making consistent profitable trades...
Or going WITH the consensus, when it is right. Of course the trick is to know when it is right and when it isn't.
Taleb's next tweet is goint to be: The way to long term survival is making consistent profitable trades...
And like galvinlee888 advised me in a different post: Making consistent profitable trades is easy: just buy low and sell high.
In all seriousness, Pekelo, I am a big fan of Taleb, read his book, followed him on his site, Wiki and Google. I tried to implement/simulate his approach, lets just say with mixed results probably because I was just not as good reading the economic/market situation as him, a pro. Like everything trading, blindly buying calls/puts losing small and hoping some of the trades would pay big did not work for me. My conclusion is it is an extremely difficult system to master.
Regards,
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nassim-taleb-identifies-tail-risk-investors-hedge-143304840.html
This is what it said:
In an email exchange on Friday, we asked Taleb about how investors should think about a risk like North Korea, where decades of saber-rattling has yet to evolve into a major military conflict.
“Investors should think in terms of general uncertainty, not ex-post specific situations,” Taleb said. “North Korea is in the realm of things more of a journalistic event than a true physical or economic threat. Consider how tiny the country is compared to the US.”
The tail risk investors should hedge
We then asked about Hurricane Harvey and its implications for investors. But Taleb pointed us to the years of easy monetary policy brought on by central banks since the financial crisis. This is a relevant concern for investors as the Federal Reserve has been slowly hiking interest rates and is considering reducing its balance sheet.
“We have more permanent threats: a stock market fueled by almost a decade of easy money,” Taleb wrote.
Central banks around the world pumped trillions of dollars of liquidity into the financial markets, which experts say helped send the stock market to record highs.
“This is the tail risk — and is independent of the newspaper threat du jour,” he said. “All investors now have and should hedge this exposure — much like a driver should own car insurance especially if they plan to drive on a road they know is particularly dangerous.”
In recent months, top fund managers including Jeffrey Gundlach and Paul Tudor Jones have been buying put options on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to position themselves for what could become a big sell-off in the stock market.
This is what it said:
In an email exchange on Friday, we asked Taleb about how investors should think about a risk like North Korea, where decades of saber-rattling has yet to evolve into a major military conflict.
“Investors should think in terms of general uncertainty, not ex-post specific situations,” Taleb said. “North Korea is in the realm of things more of a journalistic event than a true physical or economic threat. Consider how tiny the country is compared to the US.”
The tail risk investors should hedge
We then asked about Hurricane Harvey and its implications for investors. But Taleb pointed us to the years of easy monetary policy brought on by central banks since the financial crisis. This is a relevant concern for investors as the Federal Reserve has been slowly hiking interest rates and is considering reducing its balance sheet.
“We have more permanent threats: a stock market fueled by almost a decade of easy money,” Taleb wrote.
Central banks around the world pumped trillions of dollars of liquidity into the financial markets, which experts say helped send the stock market to record highs.
“This is the tail risk — and is independent of the newspaper threat du jour,” he said. “All investors now have and should hedge this exposure — much like a driver should own car insurance especially if they plan to drive on a road they know is particularly dangerous.”
In recent months, top fund managers including Jeffrey Gundlach and Paul Tudor Jones have been buying put options on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to position themselves for what could become a big sell-off in the stock market.
The smartest guys in the room are often right, but always too early.