Nassim Taleb makes big bet on inflation

Quote from ulla:

Surely hyperinflation and stagflation would be the same sort of trade, long gold and silver and commodities??
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No, in hyperinflation you would need to leave the country and renounce citizenship (for US people).

Work out your after-tax real returns if inflation is 1000%+ - you lose money no matter what you do. Also, under hyperinflation capital controls will be imposed so you will become an economic prisoner unable to take money out of the country. Gold ownership will become illegal etc.

Also there is no such thing as "controlled hyperinflation".

Don't forget the Fed has a mandate for price stability i.e. they are legally obliged to keep inflation within acceptable limits.
 
Quote from Cutten:


"they are legally obliged to keep inflation within acceptable limits"

"they" are the ones constantly remaking the laws. "they" are the ones defining what inflation is. "we" are screwed.
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If we have a replay of 2007 oil prices, it will be the final nail in the coffin for the U.S. economy.

Let commodities of other varieties keep rising at the rate they have for the last several months, and whatever green shoots may have truly existed will be dead weeds.

I would imagine Taleb would short the hell out of consumer discretionary stocks if he really believes there's a possibility of hyperinflation.
 
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