I want to know Empirica's results since this guy seems to talk smack about everyone else. Anyone got this info?
Nassim Taleb/Empirica Results
- Thread starter sunnyskies
- Start date
That probably means that it didn't do very well.
Empirica's method seems to have been copied by some Hong Kong banks. Your invest most (95%) in T-bills, and use the interests to buy deep-out-of-the-money calls on equities, and hope to win a black swan reward.
And permutations thereof. The classic model consisted of investing 100% in FI and applying the Q-interest payments into long puts, calls or strangles. I m sure Taleb favored the long puts into a "black swan" or the strangles, i.e., his "fat tails" reference to further projects. In any event, it's worked like pure-shite.
A lot of things are "not supposed to be" but are. So I'm sure a lot of people on this board know the results. Let it out 
FredBloggs
Guest
lol - should have taken a lesson from mr tulip maybe??
show me a phd or otherwise over intellectulised method to rationalize the market, and i'll show you an accident waiting to happen.
show me a phd or otherwise over intellectulised method to rationalize the market, and i'll show you an accident waiting to happen.
james simons
I get the feeling after reading his book that things would turn out this way if I invested $1,000,000 with Mr. Taleb:
Year #1: Stock Market gets 15%, but my account gets - 5%.
Me: What happened Mr. Taleb ?
Mr. Taleb: Hey, what can I say, maybe randomness ? I don't know, but you were statistically covered for events that didn't occur.
Year #2: Stock Market gets 10 %, but my account gets 0%.
Me: What happened Mr. Taleb ?
Mr. Taleb: I told you when you opened the account you would be protected from loss, didn't I.
Year #3: Stock Market drops -50%, but my account losses 50%.
Me: What happened I thought you would buy put options to protect my account from random negative black swan events ?
Mr. Taleb: Put options ? Random ? Black Swan ? I didn't buy you any put options because I saw the drop coming from a mile away. I only trade when the event has 0 chance of occuring.
Year #1: Stock Market gets 15%, but my account gets - 5%.
Me: What happened Mr. Taleb ?
Mr. Taleb: Hey, what can I say, maybe randomness ? I don't know, but you were statistically covered for events that didn't occur.
Year #2: Stock Market gets 10 %, but my account gets 0%.
Me: What happened Mr. Taleb ?
Mr. Taleb: I told you when you opened the account you would be protected from loss, didn't I.
Year #3: Stock Market drops -50%, but my account losses 50%.
Me: What happened I thought you would buy put options to protect my account from random negative black swan events ?
Mr. Taleb: Put options ? Random ? Black Swan ? I didn't buy you any put options because I saw the drop coming from a mile away. I only trade when the event has 0 chance of occuring.