Nassim Taleb-Advised Universa Tail Fund Returned 3,600% in March

[FrankInLa]

That is quite irrelevant. Investors care about total returns. Most investors with his fund don't place all their nest eggs into just this fund anyway. They use funds like this as insurance. You can bet that the performance attribution numbers and methodology are sound as the records are regularly audited.

No. Their calculation methodology is not consistent. On a consistent basis (to the years that they lose money) they made like 12percent in March.

 

[newwurldmn]

That is quite irrelevant. Investors care about total returns. Most investors with his fund don't place all their nest eggs into just this fund anyway. They use funds like this as insurance. You can bet that the performance attribution numbers and methodology are sound as the records are regularly audited.

It is completely relevant. If you give someone 1MM to hedge your 100MM portfolio, do you mark them against their gains on 1MM or how much of your 100MM they protected?

I'm sure their books are audited and the investors look at it in the latter way. But the press doesn't care what audited returns look like. They are looking for sensational stories and Universa is all too happy to obliged.

And why should they get credit for earning in a blow up when their job is to earn in a blow up?

 

[dealmaker]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...iversa-tail-risk-fund-returned-3-600-in-march

Wasn't there another Universa claim of massive returns in 2015/2016 then it turned out to be bogus and Taleb quickly distanced himself from Spitznagel after originally taking credit?
https://www.allaboutalpha.com/blog/...ar-claim-from-black-swan-fund-not-from-taleb/




"Taleb wasn't much of an investor when he ran money at Empirica. Perhaps Spitznagel's best trade yet was ditching Taleb and his ideas?"

http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/is-spitznagel-apostate.html

 

[SunTrader]

Taleb is the Milli Vanilli of trading.

Oh ok Milli Vanilli that had a second "one hit wonder".

 

[newwurldmn]

Taleb is the Milli Vanilli of trading.

Oh ok Milli Vanilli that had a second "one hit wonder".

Blame it on the rain
Girl you Know Its True
Baby Don't Forget my Number

 

[SunTrader]

Blame it on the rain
Girl you Know Its True
Baby Don't Forget my Number

TMI

 

[wrbtrader]

Only had to have 12 years of consistent loses and then a black swan event to see those returns.

Most investors wouldn't stay around for 12 years of consistent losses. Therefore, it must have been the new investors that benefited greatly from the big profits in March.

Everybody gets lucky once in awhile. Feel sorry for the investors years ago that finally left after the losses. Then again, investing is a long term thing...gotta stick around for the bad and good until its time to cash in.

wrbtrader

 

[MKTrader]

Lose 1% per year during 20 years then earn 3600%.
0.99 ^ 20 * 37 = 3026% ^ 1/20 = 18.5% compounded per year in average.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1247951670526578688

Whether he made 18.5% or 11.15% CAGR, he's beaten the S&P 500 over the last 20 years which is something very few hedge fund managers (or Warren Buffett) have done.

 

[MKTrader]

3600% is the part that's lucky. Just like buying an option for 5 cents and selling it for $3 the next day is lucky. It happens, but you'll lose more than you win and it's generally a bad strategy. And technically, this play was more like you bought a stock for $50, it went down $1 over 12 years and then it shot up to $100 in a couple months. While you're technically ahead, it was pure luck.

Taleb seems to be quite poor for someone so smart.

https://www.wealthypersons.com/nassim-taleb-net-worth-2020-2021/

Yeah, as if I really trust the numbers on those celebrity sites...Even at $2 mil, he's ahead of almost every cubicle jockey/wannabe trader here at ET.

 

[virtusa]

Yeah, as if I really trust the numbers on those celebrity sites...Even at $2 mil, he's ahead of almost every cubicle jockey/wannabe trader here at ET.

If being ahead of almost every cubicle jockey/wannabe trader here at ET is the criteria to be successful, there are thousands of traders who are successful. LOL.