Nasem Taleb of 'Black Swan' Fame Will Be On The Colbert Report Tonight @ 11:30 PM

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ByLoSellHi

Thank marketsurfer for the heads up.

I'm looking forward to this. DVR is set in case I get hit by a bus today.

:confused: Wait, that will only help if I recover. Who recovers from being hit by a bus???
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

Nasem Taleb aka 'captain obvious' is getting a lot of media attention from his book
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I don't know what you're saying.

What he says and does is not only not "obvious," it is counter-intuitive to human nature.

Can you honestly say it conforms to conventional human 'thinking' to lose money for multi-year periods, knowing that you would more than make up for it (many times over) when a standard deviation event sufficient to be the type that constitutes a 'black swan' occurs?

I can't.
 
stock doesn't like him because he is not 150% bullish, all day, every day, every year etc. And Stock, one question, if you are buy and hold where do you get more money every day to buy more as you like to say? If you are so bullish why are you cost averging up? Do you have a money tree you didn't tell us about?
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

I don't know what you're saying.

What he says and does is not only not "obvious," it is counter-intuitive to human nature.

Can you honestly say it conforms to conventional human 'thinking' to lose money for multi-year periods, knowing that you would more than make up for it (many times over) when a standard deviation event sufficient to be the type that constitutes a 'black swan' occurs?

I can't.
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I agree BLSH.

I have discussions with investors all the time and when I bring up concepts like random outcomes and bet sizing they look at me like I'm a loser (well that may be but still, lol). People really want to think someone knows what's going to happen.

Half the guy's in Schwager's first Wizard's book have been clipped. Some quite badly. Even in golf-a game with hardly any variables-performance of pro's varies greatly year to year or even round to round.

Clearly Taleb's thoughts aren't original but it's he who put it all together in a readable, enjoyable format. He wrote a bible......
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I agree BLSH.

I have discussions with investors all the time and when I bring up concepts like random outcomes and bet sizing they look at me like I'm a loser (well that may be but still, lol). People really want to think someone knows what's going to happen.

Half the guy's in Schwager's first Wizard's book have been clipped. Some quite badly. Even in golf-a game with hardly any variables-performance of pro's varies greatly year to year or even round to round.

Clearly Taleb's thoughts aren't original but it's he who put it all together in a readable, enjoyable format. He wrote a bible......
More...

Exactly.

And Taleb has clipped Niderhoffer twice, for many hundreds of millions of dollars.

I don't know who is up over whom, but I know they were literally taking each other's trades, and I know they have both made tons of money, though Taleb has never had to liquidate after being blown up, as Niederhoffer has.
 
I wonder what Taleb thinks about contrarian plays in currencies and bonds right now. Its time to start thinking about the anti carry trade.
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

Exactly.

And Taleb has clipped Niderhoffer twice, for many hundreds of millions of dollars.

I don't know who is up over whom, but I know they were literally taking each other's trades, and I know they have both made tons of money, though Taleb has never had to liquidate after being blown up, as Niederhoffer has.
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This is garbage. All that crap from the New Yorker article has been completely taken out of context, and that's why Taleb doesn't like to talk about Vic.
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

Nasem Taleb aka 'captain obvious' is getting a lot of media attention from his book
More...

Let me guess...another thing you didn't manage to read but heard about. Wow, what's that, is that everything you haven't read or learned about but have something stupid to say anyway stock_turder?

Come on little gipper, pump Google to us! :D
 
Quote from basis:

This is garbage. All that crap from the New Yorker article has been completely taken out of context, and that's why Taleb doesn't like to talk about Vic.
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What parts have been taken out of context, specifically?

Niederhoffer blew up twice (1997) and (2001).

I have no issues with Niederhoffer, but if that's not factually accurate, let me know the specifics.

He was quoted in the article as saying it was the worse thing that's ever happened to him in his life, the brokerage firms called his margin, he had to liquidate personal treasures, etc.
 
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