Please, Enlighten me!
Nasdaq will not bottom until ——-
- Thread starter NY_HOOD
- Start date
Please, Enlighten me!
Do you not understand context, or are you too young to understand Pink Floyd? I was having fun with you, and you ruined it. Watch the video!
I am merely pointing out that you probably have not read the original papers. Instead, it's very likely that you are parroting some idiot on the internet who did not either.
Anyways, I barely skimmed it, and it's hard to give a specific opinion without carefully reading the article itself. However, I can see that they were using two different viruses as experimental models and that is their primary conclusion is that these viruses do survive on surfaces across the two experimental temperatures they've used. This said, multiple papers mention that viruses get inactivated faster at higher temperatures but pretty much all of them caveat that it will have little impact on the dynamics of transmission. I am not a virologist (though I do have a dated PhD in a related field) and it's hard for me to comment further.
NICE
Well, I was just looking up the PE on some "growth ETFs" and they're around 22-23.
"value ETFs" on the other hand are around 12-13 PE.
I mention this because back in last recession bottom, the PE multiples for the GROWTH side were *just about the same* as the value side.
So, yeah, I can see FAANGS and QQQ taking a hit at some point next few months because it seems the bear has not really hugged those stocks yet. Things are relatively "too easy" for the top end of the market. There is WAY too much "dispersion". Something has to give more to the downside before a solid (long term) advance can happen.
As for the advance during 2019...if you check, it was the "faangs" (generals in old parlance) and the troops (small/mid caps) did not participate. Such advances always lead in failure.
"value ETFs" on the other hand are around 12-13 PE.
I mention this because back in last recession bottom, the PE multiples for the GROWTH side were *just about the same* as the value side.
So, yeah, I can see FAANGS and QQQ taking a hit at some point next few months because it seems the bear has not really hugged those stocks yet. Things are relatively "too easy" for the top end of the market. There is WAY too much "dispersion". Something has to give more to the downside before a solid (long term) advance can happen.
As for the advance during 2019...if you check, it was the "faangs" (generals in old parlance) and the troops (small/mid caps) did not participate. Such advances always lead in failure.
In a bear market, the "counter rallies" serve to convince players that the trouble is over, "green light now"... when in fact that is not the case.
This bear market (if that's what it is) is likely to take either of 2 forms.... an "A-B-C" down, or an impulsive "5-waves down".
In the ABC, the "B" wave is the upwards correction. In the 5-waves down, waves 2 and 4 are upwards corrections. (I've posted charts on the "form this bear market is likely to take". You can check it out if interested.)
Astute market players are aware of both possibilities and trade accordingly... but ultimately the bear runs its course after MONTHS in a decline pattern... maybe 2+ years.... as part of the bear market is the negative psycho, "when will this thing turn around"?... "I'm losing my ass every day and can't get a break"... et al. Bear markets end in despair, not "chomping at the bit to buy the dip and catch the low". (Bear markets end when believers in "buy and hold" can't take it any longer and give up in despair... selling out because they're "afraid that it's NEVER going to turn around and I'm going to lose it all".)
IMV, the market is still working on either the "A" wave down or "Wave 1 of 5" to the downside. (In both the ABC down and 5-waves down scenarios, the first part of the decline is likely to be, "5-waves down"... down, up, down, up, down.) Possibly have just completed the "4th wave up" and starting the "5th wave down" to complete the 1st leg of the bear. We'll see.
If we're in the early stages of a new bear market, then we are likely MILES away from both the time and price low. Trade accordingly.
FWIW...
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Where you at Killer? I’m in the grove.
Just in case you missed it! The temperature’s inverse effect on the activities and transmission of viruses is a very basic knowledge that is covered in microbiology 101. The winter cold climate helps viruses flourish, live longer and spread. What’s more, in the short winter days, the majority of people immune system runs low on Vitamin D which makes them more vulnerable to infection. And the opposite happens in the summer time. A good example of that is the flu virus. It spreads like wild fire in the winter time and becomes almost totally inactive in the summer time.