First, IMHO i do belive that the Nasdaq will soon be a penny stock composite....wait.....it already is.
Take the Nasdaq 100 from 98-2000. Take a look at the prices of these babies......and now compare the current Nasdaq 100 with the latter.....are you getting the idea.
IMHO i still belive the Nasdaq is overvalued. I think 1500 is about the proper value.....no need to get into that because im a trader not an investor and such a number is just side info.
Also, look at what has been leading the Nasdaq, the mid caps as one would say. The so called leaders Msft, Intc, (shit, not much left) are basically not moving much.
Also, if you look at the so called "daytraders" and what they are trading now vrs 99 when the Naz was 5000, gives you an idea as well.
Eventually i could see MSFT and INTC moving over to NYSE along with DELL. As daytrading has died, so has the nasdaq (of course youll have ur ET Daytraders yelling how well they are doing trading Nasdaq stocks, LOL,)
So in a nut shell, Nasdaq is a dying market, even with stocks like RIMM, i dont think you will see anything close to 5000. Also, when i was Daytrading back in 99, it was the Internet stocks, and the CMGI's on the Nasdaq that helped to push it to 5000. No more Dot.coms, no more CMGI's, ...and a stock like RIMM is not going to carry the Nasdaq much higher (yes im short a lshit load of calls on RIMM at the underlyer price of 93. so there is some bias)
I do belive folks, this is all the nasdaq has to offer, 2000 and maby a little above it after BUSH pulls off the OSMA capture....