I am a student looking at audit trail data for Nasdaq-100 full-size and e-mini contacts. The data (obtained from the CFTC) show trader type IDs for both sides of each trade.
In the big contract the volume is dominated by locals trading with outside customers, which is normal for futures markets. But for the e-mini more than 30% of trades are trades of LOCALS WITH LOCALS. In those trades for every local who wins there is a local who loses. Sure, in GLOBEX you don't know who you are trading with. But the locals see the same action on the floor, they have similar information. I thought they would want to be on the SAME SIDE rather than on opposite sides of the trade. Or perhaps some locals have better info than others. What do you think?
Alex
In the big contract the volume is dominated by locals trading with outside customers, which is normal for futures markets. But for the e-mini more than 30% of trades are trades of LOCALS WITH LOCALS. In those trades for every local who wins there is a local who loses. Sure, in GLOBEX you don't know who you are trading with. But the locals see the same action on the floor, they have similar information. I thought they would want to be on the SAME SIDE rather than on opposite sides of the trade. Or perhaps some locals have better info than others. What do you think?
Alex