Naked Option versus a Spread

Quote from Epic:

In all the above cases, a longer term volatility view will still likely result in some reversion. The same cannot be said about directionally trading the underlying. Just because a stock has doubled, it isn't necessarily implied that it will mean revert and a stock losing half its value has just as much chance of going to zero as it does of going back to highs.

Short term loses aren't going to kill anyone unless their sizing mechanism is broken. Forecasting is actually less than 50% of long term alpha generation. Don't try to pick absolute tops and bottoms, and don't over-commit on any single trade and every situation you mentioned is tradable.

It's been my experience that supply demand imbalances that cause vol to go off mark are either short lived or extremely persistent. short lived are exploited by market makers, flow traders, and layoff accounts. It's tough for a trader whose not in the flow to exploit a lot of it. Persistent never go away and is WAY bigger than the vol market. I only find a handful of these a year and they generally involve some kind of fundamental event (biotech PDUFA or similar). Generally you're shorting into it which is scary.

And even more of these supply demand imbalances are efficient. Look at the term structure in HLF. From Feb to Jan14 the term structure is extremely inverted. Clearly there is huge demand for volatility in the front as this whole ackman/icahn thing plays out. But the market is quick to price the forward vol lower. It's agreeing with you that the vol is mean reverting and a lot of it is priced in.
 
Quote from newwurldmn:

It's been my experience that supply demand imbalances that cause vol to go off mark are either short lived or extremely persistent. short lived are exploited by market makers, flow traders, and layoff accounts. It's tough for a trader whose not in the flow to exploit a lot of it. Persistent never go away and is WAY bigger than the vol market. I only find a handful of these a year and they generally involve some kind of fundamental event (biotech PDUFA or similar). Generally you're shorting into it which is scary.

And even more of these supply demand imbalances are efficient. Look at the term structure in HLF. From Feb to Jan14 the term structure is extremely inverted. Clearly there is huge demand for volatility in the front as this whole ackman/icahn thing plays out. But the market is quick to price the forward vol lower. It's agreeing with you that the vol is mean reverting and a lot of it is priced in.


so in conclusion the poster that asked the original question ? Does this help him I am wondering ?


wait for it.... wait.... here comes Hershey with some off the wall F up stuff..
 
Quote from EliteTraderNYC:

Okay, heres a follow up, whats a good way to determine what IV should be, versus what it is for an at the money option?

It shouldn't matter too much to what you are trying to do. You are optimizing over pennies (vega) instead of thinking about the dollars (delta)
 
Quote from optionbull:

so in conclusion the poster that asked the original question ? Does this help him I am wondering ?


wait for it.... wait.... here comes Hershey with some off the wall F up stuff..

It doesn't. It' a side conversation with Epic.

But for someone named optionbull it's probably very elementary so you don't need to listen.
 
Quote from newwurldmn:

It shouldn't matter too much to what you are trying to do. You are optimizing over pennies (vega) instead of thinking about the dollars (delta)


well put ( pun intended) but seriously that's what I was trying to say all along but coudn't

The original poster could buy IV too high but over the long run the returns will be better using options if he has a method that is decent like better than 33 percent correct... assuming stop parameters he gave..
 
Quote from newwurldmn:

It doesn't. It' a side conversation with Epic.

But for someone named optionbull it's probably very elementary so you don't need to listen.

but why wouldnt you PM him to have a side conversation ?

just think of the original poster guy that asked the question ( if he is real and not www.elitetrader.com trying to be relevant starting threads because volume is down down down), he is lost in a maze of nothingness ?
 
Quote from optionbull:

but why wouldnt you PM him to have a side conversation ?

just think of the original poster guy that asked the question ( if he is real and not www.elitetrader.com trying to be relevant starting threads because volume is down down down), he is lost in a maze of nothingness ?

hi kettle. i'm pot.
 
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