Mystery Trader Shocks Market With Giant VIX Put Trades
- Thread starter Banjo
- Start date
I agree with that trade. I see the vix is 30.50 this am with the es at 3450 which is insane . In the previous 20 yrs you only got an over 30 vix if the mkt cracked hard . We've been in a relative tight range for 3 months now . The vix should be 18 max . In the past when anxiety about a coming event was this high we rarely ever got the move all feared which here is down big.
I thought about this.
At first I liked the idea, but I think he's wrong this time.
We're gonna get a huge spike. It'll certainly subside, but this cat is gonna lose it all. Or at least half his bet.
Mark the post.
-vz
If it hits 50, it'll hit 70.
I have no idea how he has this trade set up, but "social unrest" being priced in already.... uh-uh.
The clock is ticking on a major sh*t-storm I think.
That said... we'll be fine.
F Europe.
I think it’s a dumb bet to express the view that vol will come in Q1
Most people are expecting chaos . Trumps niece in her book said if Trump lose’s big he’ll disappear fast as he’s humiliated. All I know what I’ve seen since I’ve been in the mkt a long time when all expect something it rarely happens . No question we’ll get some spike downs in the days ahead .None of us know so the outcome but expect some crazy moves up and down . At the very least if Biden wins and the dem’s sweep capital gains taxes going up which means there could be big selling into yr end .Also a transaction tax on trades is a real possibility if dem’s in power . The rich will subsidize the poor .Im not certain risk assets drop a lot if the govt prints trillions
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I suppose you're right, especially if Biden wins. Any kind of extreme alt-right domestic terrorism activity will be quickly snuffed out. America will press on, democracy will thrive, the fears of socialism will prove unfounded, and folks like Bezos, Musk, myself, and other heretofore unheard of visionaries.... will help usher in a whole new age of peace and prosperity.
Maybe a hundred years from now folks will look back and say that the year 2020 and all it encompassed, and all its faults, was the year the whole world turned the page and a new age dawned. That's the optimist in me; the realist however says don't hold your breath just yet VZ.
With all that said... pretty sure history will remember 2020 as the turning point that ushered in many changes for all of humankind that we have yet to fully see.
It's a ratio spread and may have produced a credit due to the vol smile and subsequent drop -options are multi faceted. I always look at premiums first and my website shows wins every week