My TST Combine 20 day 30k

[SplawnDarts]

Your head fake at the open was this scalper's trend

It was a pretty limited "trend" though in the sense that it was driven by a desire to take out a big batch of stops (and the offer pulling to make that happen), not underlying liquidity-consuming order flow. I guess it's a philosophical question as to whether anything driven by stop hunting can be considered a trend.

That said, definitely a tradable (and predictable) move.

 

[smallStops]

well done for doing a combine.
you have 20 days, so patience and follow your plan
good luck

 

[Crispy]

No, it is only the first step. If I don't get entries right I am doomed.


When I get all trade entries by plan then I start to work on exits , and so on.

I applaud you for taking the combine live for all to see. Seriously, good trading to you.

But if I may make one comment. My personal opinion of course, so take it with a grain of salt. I think your high concern with getting entries perfect or "right" is terribly misguided. In fact, I am of the opinion that unless you have a true structural edge, and you don`t, entry is practically meaningless. I know how that sounds. I know how much merit you probably put into the importance of the entry. So do many others. Heck, I used to also.

The largest advantage (not edge) a directional trader can obtain is via tracking the math involved over time and many trades and exiting appropriately based on your own MFE/MAE stats. And by coupling them with your hit rate and expectancy to obtain the calculation that gets you in the green by tweaking the numbers. Thereby never accepting less on your winners than what you have coming to you for all the hard work and toil you have been through to get this far. And never letting the loser take more from you than what is perfectly acceptable for the reward involved. Your advantage is the ability to never fudge the system that is in place. Most people cant do it....its a never ending process of acceptance in the numbers working out over the long haul. Think in terms of Years.

Again, Best of luck to you!

 

[NoDoji]

The largest advantage (not edge) a directional trader can obtain is via tracking the math involved over time and many trades and exiting appropriately based on your own MFE/MAE stats. And by coupling them with your hit rate and expectancy to obtain the calculation that gets you in the green by tweaking the numbers.

What he said, Risto.

I've given an analysis assignment to at least a dozen people who've asked me for help with trading. Here it is over a year later and I've yet to see a spreadsheet with the MFE/MAE stats. Even an analysis of 20 trades would be a start.

 

[legionx]

I hope that public journal keeps me accountable , makes me stick to the plan 100 %
7 days have passed and I am down - 372.

Plan is really simple :
Buy higher low or double bottoms.
Short lower high or double tops.

Today's trades :
1. Long HL, got stopped out
2. Long LL, got stopped out
3. Long LL, got stopped out

Got to close too daily loss limit to open another trade.

View attachment 145072

I if had traded by plan the end of the day result would have been positive.

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My only goal for rest of the 13 days is 90 % entry's by plan.

My customized combine is : 20 trading days, one trade per day, 45% profitable days, 2k drawdown and 2k profit. I had about a 1400 dollars drawdown but I am up 1200 dollars. Now to focus on the percentage with six trading day left. Trading is not easy, been doing it since 2008 and I have only spent money and not make money. I do not give up in what I believe in and to be honest with yourself is something that we all should identify in order to know our strengthss and weaknesses. I trade cl, dow and sometimes 6j. The reason why one trade per day is working for me it's because I get upset pretty face and trade and double up and trade again. Less trading is better for me after all. Oh yeah, since Espn analysts says "defense is the name of the game", my loss limit per day is $300 .

 

[buwa84]

The largest advantage (not edge) a directional trader can obtain is via tracking the math involved over time and many trades and exiting appropriately based on your own MFE/MAE stats. And by coupling them with your hit rate and expectancy to obtain the calculation that gets you in the green by tweaking the numbers. Thereby never accepting less on your winners than what you have coming to you for all the hard work and toil you have been through to get this far. And never letting the loser take more from you than what is perfectly acceptable for the reward involved. Your advantage is the ability to never fudge the system that is in place. Most people cant do it....its a never ending process of acceptance in the numbers working out over the long haul. Think in terms of Years.

Hi Crispy,

Im a new trader who is also buying on Higer Lows. Would you mind ellaborating on the analysis you mentioned on MFE/MAE stats and how can i use this to "accepting less on your winners than what you have coming to you"

Thanks.

 

[smallStops]

Take trades exactly 'similar' , aka your setup.
fill up a column with :
trade number / maximum heat ( MAE) / how far the trade run in profits(MFE)

now chose a stop value: see how many times you would get stopped out
now chose a target value: see how many times you would reach it

 

[ScalperJoe]

I tried adding to the loser, it doesn't work.

I know the feeling about "adding to the loser" when you're already in a position and taking a draw. It's very tempting and easy to do while you trade the combine. I've decided in my next combine to NOT do that until the profit goal is reached for migrating from Junior to Senior trader as if it was a funded account.

Keep in mind that if you're funded, the "Junior Trader" rules specify that you cannot add to a loser until you reach Senior Trader, and for a 30k account that occurs when you have reached the $1,500 profit goal.

Since the 30k combine also has a $1,500 profit goal, it doesn't make sense "adding to the loser" since you have to agree not to do that in a funded account.

In other words, you've stated that adding to the loser "doesn't work", but even if it DID work in the combine, it won't work in the live account, since you have to agree not to do it.

 

[Risto]

Lower timeframe gives too many false signals

View attachment 145174


Run little backtest of 22 trades
About MAE and MFE
Stop below / above swing low / swing high shoud be logical place to put it.
Also figured out there to take profit.

Only thing now to do is to buy HL and short LH and let the market to rest.

View attachment 145175

 

[Risto]

Lot of missed opportunities and hesitation today.
Positive note all trades from LH and HLs.

1 - Short at LH.
2 - Missed short at LH while posting on ET. Didn't want to chase the market.
3 - Didn't believe that we can go any lower.
4 - Waited market to turn around.
5 - Long at HL.
6 - Long at HL.

I need to trade what see.

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