My trades

[optionsinvestor]

OI -

What are your thoughts on picking up next week's TSLA 350 calls here?

I'm thinking Elon would love to find a magic rabbit he can pull out of his hat next week to consummate that $420 going private number.

I played the initial TSLA calls on that takeout rumor. I wanted to see if Elon did have something up his sleeve with the Saudis. That's where the rally on TSLA would have occurred. Rumors like this usually plays out within days, and that's why I played the Aug calls. Once it rumors turned into actual news (there was news earlier this week about Elon talking to the Saudis about taking TSLA private), that was it for me. At this point, I'll wait until there are more rumors that trickle out. I don't know if Elon's going to get his $420, but I'll play it again if rumors heat up again. On mergers, I love playing the trades within hours after the initial rumors trickle out. They don't always pan out, but the last 2 years, there have been some solid winners where you enter just after the rumor and let it play out for about 2 weeks.

I overplayed AMZN though. I figured if the SP500 was going to hit that record level, then some of the large cap techs should be leading it there (GOOG/GOOGL and AMZN were my candidate). I took a loss of just under -$20k this week on the closed trades. I'm down to my core positions where I betting more on the rally here into September holding UAL, ETSY, NTAP, and SQ calls. Talk about taking a quick vacation on the wrong day. That Wednesday really turned things south for me. Going forward, I actually still see the SP500 setting up to break that record level. Where I thought we'd get a touch and drop, we are holding much better here and I'm looking for more of a break and run type of move now. Just the way Wednesday played out, it felt like a lot of smaller weak buyers took profits and left the market.

For next week, I'm leaning towards industrials to lead the SP500 into record levels. If stocks like BA and CAT can come back from recent lows and test their record highs, that might do it. That's where I'll be looking for trades.

 

[MidwesternTrader]

I played the initial TSLA calls on that takeout rumor. I wanted to see if Elon did have something up his sleeve with the Saudis. That's where the rally on TSLA would have occurred. Rumors like this usually plays out within days, and that's why I played the Aug calls. Once it rumors turned into actual news (there was news earlier this week about Elon talking to the Saudis about taking TSLA private), that was it for me. At this point, I'll wait until there are more rumors that trickle out. I don't know if Elon's going to get his $420, but I'll play it again if rumors heat up again. On mergers, I love playing the trades within hours after the initial rumors trickle out. They don't always pan out, but the last 2 years, there have been some solid winners where you enter just after the rumor and let it play out for about 2 weeks.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts and approach.

 

[optionsinvestor]

Looks like a power move back to record levels for the SP500. I didn't add any new momentum positions. The only thing I added was a TJX Sep 100 call heading into earnings tomorrow morning. I like some of these retailers. TJX is the one I want to jump into to test the waters this week. Other than that, I'm letting ETSY, SQ, NTAP, and UAL calls do the work.

If the numbers on TJX looks good, I'll tap into ROST later in the week too. I also want to take a second look at PLCE. On the tech side, there's VMW reporting on Thursday after the market closes.

 

[jeffalvinson]

So far today, the SP500 has come within 4 points of the record high (2872.87).

[SP500, 2 days, 5 minute candles, 400ma, pivot points]

 

[optionsinvestor]

Yes, looks like the push to record level is here. We're getting more of a slow and steady kind of move to record levels, which bodes better in the long term. I expect a slow an steady break through it especially with China/US setting up meetings to resolve their issues. There's really no additional news with earnings done and rate hikes not expected until mid-September. I'm just letting my positions run from here and see how high they can run into the week of Labor day when volume should pick up again.

 

[jeffalvinson]

OI, SP500 just set a new all time high of 2873.23 (previous high 2872.87).
Two questions:
1: Can it close above the old record?
2: Will we get a sell off from here?

[SP500, 2 days, 5 minute candles, 400ma, pivot points]

 

[optionsinvestor]

It's a 50/50 on closing above the record highs today. I think we'll do it within the next few days though. The market feels very calm right now, I didn't see any wild swings at all, so I think the actual record high will be much higher over the next 2 weeks. The only thing that can break down this move is if China/US decides to call off the talks. As long as you hear news that they are talking about trade, then the market is going to be steadily higher. My streamer of about 100 stocks are 95% green. There are just a few pockets of red, so all the sectors are rallying.

I've actually been adding KSS for the past couple hours now using KSS Sep $80 calls. On the chart, KSS has the tendency to drop on the day after earnings only to rally back in the following days. Today, I thought it might do the same when it was at -$2pts in the morning, but it was green earlier, and has held that gain right now. I'm just about at a full position (3-5% of account) on this trade too. I know TJX was an earnings play, but the retailers have been solid so I didn't sell out just yet. I have TJX Sep 100 calls, and that'll allow me to ride this trade a little longer. I'll be looking to set up something for ROST tomorrow.

 

[jeffalvinson]

From the standpoint of pure daily candlestick reading, this chart says we may take another brief pause. 4 candles up & the 4th has a serious topping tail (COG: Changing of the Guard).
For that to happen, the SP500 has to close below today's low of 2861.32, as its a trigger for technical traders to sell off back to the Buy Zone: between the 20ma & 40ma support.
(Pristine 101)

[SP500, 1 month, daily candles, 20ma & 40ma]

 

[MidwesternTrader]

OI -

Question on your thoughts concerning when to exit winning options positions. My impression is you will consider the overall market sentiment/trend along the individual equity's potential for further breakout/breakdown when holding a winning position. Maybe more art from and intuition than purely technical decision making in some ways.

But are there some profit levels along a percentage basis, say 100%, you are looking to considering exiting? Or for instance when you are holding calls, are you recognizing when the underlying has made such a strong, rapid move in your favor (ie big gap up on earnings) that reversion to the mean is likely, so you look to exit at that point?

TIA

 

[optionsinvestor]

From the standpoint of pure daily candlestick reading, this chart says we may take another brief pause. 4 candles up & the 4th has a serious topping tail (COG: Changing of the Guard).
For that to happen, the SP500 has to close below today's low of 2861.32, as its a trigger for technical traders to sell off back to the Buy Zone: between the 20ma & 40ma support.
(Pristine 101)

[SP500, 1 month, daily candles, 20ma & 40ma]


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I thought about that too Jeff, but I feel like this time around it's not going to dip more than 20pts. It just feels like the market is going to hold and run here. I've looked at some of the recent earnings and even something like HD has bounced back quick. I know earnings were strong on HD, but weak buyers sold out when HD couldn't hold at $195 and the stock sold off to about $191. That was it and it tells me that weak buyers are far and few right now. I know Khol's pattern to sell off right after earnings for 1-2 days even if earnings beat estimates. Yesterday, I had to jump on it because KSS only sold off for a morning. It just feels like weak buyers are gone and everyone else is a bit more greedy here holding onto their positions longer. As long as there are no major tariff news, I think we just continue higher and I don't know where we can rally up to, but 2900 and then that nice round number at 3000 would be a good bet. That's why I'm loosening up a little more here. I've been adding WSM Sep $62.5 calls and I'm looking at ROST Sep 95 calls while not selling any TJX calls at all.