My trades

It looks like the bounce back was modest as a 100pt gain on the DOW just isn't what it used to be. The bounce back in AMZN and NVDA were solid though, giving me the seesaw moves again going from negative into positive territory. It just felt like NVDA and AMZN are up one day and down the next. I'm also considering legging into the AMZN trade too now. I just saw the AMZN 1920 calls at $13.40/$13.95 with my AMZN 1910 calls have an avg price of $14.23. If I can get back my entire cost and just let the trade play out into Friday afternoon, I'd strongly consider that. Other than that, everything else actually closed up except for UAL. I did close out the TSLA 370 calls. Overall the entire TSLA position turned into a -3100 play. It turned out better than I thought, the only thing I would have changed is closing out the 370 calls sooner once I locked in profits in the 360 puts I used as a hedge. This week, I locked in -7970 in losses. I'll probably be able to lower that loss once I close out the AMZN and NVDA calls.

Other than that, I'm actually very light in positions now with only 31% in the market while holding 69% in cash. There are a few momentum positions I'd like to add, but I want to keep my market weight low until after labor day.
 
OI, today on the 5 minute candle micro trend chart, the SP500 didn't close above its declining 400ma (grey line).

[SP500, 2 days, 5 minute candles, 400ma, Pivot Points]
8_14_5M.png


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On the daily candle chart, the SP500 is back above its rising 20 day moving average.

[SP500, 1 month, daily candles, 20 day moving average (blue line)]
8_14_DAILY.png



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The only minor concern I have is: the Dow 30 has closed 2 consecutive days below its
20 day moving average.
This begs the question: "Is it possible that it may retrace back to its 200 day moving average
that is tested in late June 2018?"

[Dow 30, 3 months, daily candles, 20 dma (blue line), 200dma (voilet line)]
DOW 8_14_3 MONTHS.png
 
OI your right, with earnings over, the tariffs and the turkish problem, there isn't any real reason for the markets to continue upward until the next earnings season.

[Dow 30, 3 months, daily candles, 50dma (blue line), 200dma (violet line)]
DOW 8 _15.png


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[Nasdaq, 3 months, daily candles, 50dma (blue line)]
COMP 8_15.png
 
Hey Jeff, I took the day off with the kids and didn't look at the account all day. It looked like a massacre yesterday especially in the tech sector. I took a -$10k drop (all unrealized as I haven't closed out any positions yet). But, the Nasdaq and DOW doing the same thing hasn't really happened in a while. It's interesting that the SP500 didn't fall closer to its 50-day ma too. I think investors are really trying to push for that record level before any major negative news push it down. This morning the markets are showing signs of a bounce with WMT's earnings actually better than anticipated. Add that to CSCO's solid result and that's a 1-2 punch for the dow, although WMT's rally probably gave the DOW a better +60pt jump.

My AMZN position took a beating with AMZN dow to $1880s, but I like premarket at $1900 right now, which could lead it easily back to 1920 by end of day. And the seesaw continues. We might have another shot at that record level by early next week if today's gains hold. That news that the US/China trade is turning positive has really helped, and that tells me that this market is very sensitive to anything related to that US/China trade talk.
 
In an article I read, China official pronouncements do not match what is actually happening in China. Officially, they will match tariff with tariff imposed by the US. Behind the scenes, it is reported that Chinese business leaders including, top politburo party officials are getting nervous with the trade war seeing the effect on Chinese companies! Those tariffs are biting contrary to official Chinese propaganda and I think we will get a trade agreement sooner than later! If not, then, the Chinese are shutting themselves out of the US market which account for 25% of all their trade as more and more of their products get more expensive relative to similar products made elsewhere.
 
I've added more to my AMZN position looking for a reversal later today and into tomorrow. There shouldn't be any other news this week that can shock the market. I also added NTAP Sep 80 calls looking for the run after earnings.
 
Yea, that was ugly adding into AMZN calls. I expected AMZN to bounce back from these lows. I did add DE Aug 140 calls heading into earnings tomorrow morning. I know CAT had some strong results, and I expect DE to do the same here.
 
SP500 closed above the 400ma yesterday and today it will be interesting to see if the convergence of Pivot Support Level 1 (red line) and the 400ma contain retracement.

[SP500, 2 days, 5 minute, 400ma, pivot points]


SP500 8_17.png
 
OI -

What are your thoughts on picking up next week's TSLA 350 calls here?

I'm thinking Elon would love to find a magic rabbit he can pull out of his hat next week to consummate that $420 going private number.
 
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